ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Looks like the center might be right on the north shore of Cuba now on the west side of that convective plume. If so looks like the center might track closer to Key West than forecast? Really can't tell much from IR imagery so wait and check for a south wind at Key west later if recon doesn't make it out for a fix.

[robbielyn]

so here in hernando county two counties north of clearwater we are getting thunder 15 mph wind gusts but the rain is cold and the air has dropped quite a bit. usually tropical systems produce warm raindrops

[Steve H.]

She looks formidable. Meaning she looks like she could strengthen.

[cane5]

After taking a closer look at the mid level/upper level steering, a stronger Elsa will go farther East then expected. I wouldnt be surprised to see Elsa get closer to SW FL (Naples) then currently forecast

I thought that too in the afternoon I saw that but it could be just drier air funneling into the system as was mentioned by the Weather Channel. The blowing of the cloud tops back appearing as if you are seeing almost a North East tilt.

[StormPyrate]

uh she looks to have jumped east she looks like she will hit the tip of florida. are we sure she is still going in the gulf? that would be funny cause they said the track is locked in. hmmm

It’s definitely off the official track to the east

[blp]

The track is going to have to move back east. This is going to make a close call to Key West...

[sikkar]

Coc nearing coast.

[galaxy401]

Land friction can help disorganized storms actually become more structured with a better stacked circulation. We'll see if this allows Elsa to take off after she emerges over water or another false alarm.

Didn't we see this with Isaias last year after it crossed Hispaniola? Perhaps I'm thinking of another storm though.

It happens with quite a few storms. One that comes to mind last year was Laura.

[cane5]

uh she looks to have jumped east she looks like she will hit the tip of florida. are we sure she is still going in the gulf? that would be funny cause they said the track is locked in. hmmm

It’s definitely off the official track to the east

I don’t think you are looking at what would be considered an eye your watching the cold cloud tops being influenced by the dry air which has built in all day.

[psyclone]

One thing the NHC has on this storm is serious cred when it comes to track. Don't expect it to shift dramatically from what they've been projecting. It's been ticking west the past few cycles but in small steps. Perhaps it steps back a tad east but my money remains on only small adjustments.

[StormPyrate]

uh she looks to have jumped east she looks like she will hit the tip of florida. are we sure she is still going in the gulf? that would be funny cause they said the track is locked in. hmmm

It’s definitely off the official track to the east

I don’t think you are looking at what would be considered an eye your watching the cold cloud tops being influenced by the dry air which has built in all day.

Looking at radar

[cane5]

It’s definitely off the official track to the east

I don’t think you are looking at what would be considered an eye your watching the cold cloud tops being influenced by the dry air which has built in all day.

Looking at radar

So am I check the NHC SATELITTE SHOT IT GIVES YOU A LOOK AT THE HIGH CLOUD TOPS.

[robbielyn]

One thing the NHC has on this storm is serious cred when it comes to track. Don't expect it to shift dramatically from what they've been projecting. It's been ticking west the past few cycles but in small steps. Perhaps it steps back a tad east but my money remains on only small adjustments.

i agree but at the same time coc’s hv been known to relocate under the convection or even been influenced by land so my statement does hv precedent.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1412203750270423040

[Aric Dunn]

the actual LLC is here ...

[cane5]

https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1412203750270423040

looks if anything wnw…

[robbielyn]

the actual LLC is here ... https://i.ibb.co/ysFcFh5/Capture.png

ok we’ll i was looking at visible and on there it looked east i couldn’t see the llc. but thank u for the clarification. i guess radar makes things more clear.

[StormPyrate]

the actual LLC is here ... https://i.ibb.co/ysFcFh5/Capture.png

So still far from stacked

[Aric Dunn]

the actual LLC is here ... https://i.ibb.co/ysFcFh5/Capture.png

So still far from stacked

not far at all. once off the coast a single burst could align them quickly.

[psyclone]

One thing the NHC has on this storm is serious cred when it comes to track. Don't expect it to shift dramatically from what they've been projecting. It's been ticking west the past few cycles but in small steps. Perhaps it steps back a tad east but my money remains on only small adjustments.

i agree but at the same time coc’s hv been known to relocate under the convection or even been influenced by land so my statement does hv precedent.

I expect the 11 to tick back east to maybe a Levy county landfall instead of Dixie county. If that happens it's actually bad news for the west coast