ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Looks more NNW than NW...

https://i.ibb.co/1zPmFxT/radarloop.gif

Hmmm..

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like they nudged the track a few miles back east. Hardly even noticeable but on SFWMD radar you can see the line move during the long loop.

[eastcoastFL]

One thing the NHC has on this storm is serious cred when it comes to track. Don't expect it to shift dramatically from what they've been projecting. It's been ticking west the past few cycles but in small steps. Perhaps it steps back a tad east but my money remains on only small adjustments.

i agree but at the same time coc’s hv been known to relocate under the convection or even been influenced by land so my statement does hv precedent.

I expect the 11 to tick back east to maybe a Levy county landfall instead of Dixie county. If that happens it's actually bad news for the west coast

I think they already shifted it barely a few miles back east, they must’ve done it at 5 and I didn’t even notice but I just posted the SFWMD radar loop and you can see the line move ever so slightly.

[robbielyn]

derek ortt just tweeted if elsa can get stacked will need to watch for southeast landfall. mine watkins tweeted in reply he’s been considering the possibility especially if the llc gets relocated under the convection to the east on the way off of cuba. see it wasn’t just me thinking this.

[NDG]

[eastcoastFL]

derek ortt just tweeted if elsa can get stacked will need to watch for southeast landfall. mine watkins tweeted in reply he’s been considering the possibility especially if the llc gets relocated under the convection to the east on the way off of cuba. see it wasn’t just me thinking this.

Southeast landfall? South east of what?

Both of those guys used to post on here back in the day. Do they not do that anymore?

[robbielyn]

derek ortt just tweeted if elsa can get stacked will need to watch for southeast landfall. mine watkins tweeted in reply he’s been considering the possibility especially if the llc gets relocated under the convection to the east on the way off of cuba. see it wasn’t just me thinking this.

Southeast landfall? South east of what?

Both of those guys used to post on here back in the day. Do they not do that anymore?

southeast of the current track probably still within the cone area

[robbielyn]

derek ortt just tweeted if elsa can get stacked will need to watch for southeast landfall. mine watkins tweeted in reply he’s been considering the possibility especially if the llc gets relocated under the convection to the east on the way off of cuba. see it wasn’t just me thinking this.

Southeast landfall? South east of what?

Both of those guys used to post on here back in the day. Do they not do that anymore?

i’ve seen mike watkins last year and maybe this year too but not as often as the good ol days. and derek did incognito as ozonepete i believe but not as himself. and not as ozonepete since 2018 or 19. please feel free to correct the dates time gets away from me. not many long timers left. still got wxman 57, Aric Dunn, Hammy, the moderators and administrators of course, but many hv left. i used to love nexrad. he correctly forecasted the premature turn of charley back in 2004 but he left a long time ago

[Aric Dunn]

about an hour or so until the LLC is offshore. moving NW.

[robbielyn]

Aric who used to do your show with you back in the day?

[Cutt]

Some big storms up and down the east coast so far from Miami to Vero

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Soley air mass induced but this soupy deep flow can result in a tropical rain dump by itself. Late tomorrow afternoon should bring discreet cells and rain bands that will no doubt bring some damaging wind gusts along with a broader envelope of tropical downpours. I'll be surprised if there's not at least a few brief tornadic events tomm. through Wednesday.

Flooding is my only concern. I’m sure it will be gusty from time to time but (fingers crossed) not enough to do damage or knock out power

We had a squall come through East Port St Lucie around 7-7:30 that deposited all of the pool furniture in the yard and knocked down a queen palm down in the yard across the street. Luckily it fell away from the neighbors house. I wasn’t home but my wife said it was like a hurricane outside for about 10 minutes.

[tolakram]

about an hour or so until the LLC is offshore. moving NW.

https://i.ibb.co/dMhHvF8/Capture.png

At that distance from Key West wouldn't that be the MLC?

[cane5]

derek ortt just tweeted if elsa can get stacked will need to watch for southeast landfall. mine watkins tweeted in reply he’s been considering the possibility especially if the llc gets relocated under the convection to the east on the way off of cuba. see it wasn’t just me thinking this.

Southeast landfall? South east of what?

Looks to like most moderators here are better suited to be prison guards. lol

Both of those guys used to post on here back in the day. Do they not do that anymore?

i’ve seen mike watkins last year and maybe this year too but not as often as the good ol days. and derek did incognito as ozonepete i believe but not as himself. and not as ozonepete since 2018 or 19. please feel free to correct the dates time gets away from me. not many long timers left. still got wxman 57, Aric Dunn, Hammy, the moderators and administrators of course, but many hv left. i used to love nexrad. he correctly forecasted the premature turn of charley back in 2004 but he left a long time ago

[Aric Dunn]

Aric who used to do your show with you back in the day?

Watkins, Mike Naso, Zachary Fradella, Charley.. couple other here and there.

also Ozonepete is not Ortt.

[tolakram]

COD shortwave
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[jlauderdal]

derek ortt just tweeted if elsa can get stacked will need to watch for southeast landfall. mine watkins tweeted in reply he’s been considering the possibility especially if the llc gets relocated under the convection to the east on the way off of cuba. see it wasn’t just me thinking this.

Southeast landfall? South east of what?

Both of those guys used to post on here back in the day. Do they not do that anymore?

i’ve seen mike watkins last year and maybe this year too but not as often as the good ol days. and derek did incognito as ozonepete i believe but not as himself. and not as ozonepete since 2018 or 19. please feel free to correct the dates time gets away from me. not many long timers left. still got wxman 57, Aric Dunn, Hammy, the moderators and administrators of course, but many hv left. i used to love nexrad. he correctly forecasted the premature turn of charley back in 2004 but he left a long time ago

There are a few of us here that have been around since the palm beach post forum days, late 90s...seen a whole bunch of discos and nhc tracks

[eastcoastFL]

derek ortt just tweeted if elsa can get stacked will need to watch for southeast landfall. mine watkins tweeted in reply he’s been considering the possibility especially if the llc gets relocated under the convection to the east on the way off of cuba. see it wasn’t just me thinking this.

Southeast landfall? South east of what?

Both of those guys used to post on here back in the day. Do they not do that anymore?

southeast of the current track probably still within the cone area

Ah ok. Yah I’m starting to think the same thing as well.

[Aric Dunn]

about an hour or so until the LLC is offshore. moving NW.

https://i.ibb.co/dMhHvF8/Capture.png

At that distance from Key West wouldn't that be the MLC?

Well the MLC was very well pronounced to the east of this.. it has since sort of merged..

but yes, technically we are looking up. but since the convection is fresh you can get a good idea of cell motion.

and well surface obs in this case.

if you look and the cell motion you see them coming out the "CDO" moving generally west which means the llc is just to the S or SW of the MLC.

[eastcoastFL]

derek ortt just tweeted if elsa can get stacked will need to watch for southeast landfall. mine watkins tweeted in reply he’s been considering the possibility especially if the llc gets relocated under the convection to the east on the way off of cuba. see it wasn’t just me thinking this.

Southeast landfall? South east of what?

Both of those guys used to post on here back in the day. Do they not do that anymore?

i’ve seen mike watkins last year and maybe this year too but not as often as the good ol days. and derek did incognito as ozonepete i believe but not as himself. and not as ozonepete since 2018 or 19. please feel free to correct the dates time gets away from me. not many long timers left. still got wxman 57, Aric Dunn, Hammy, the moderators and administrators of course, but many hv left. i used to love nexrad. he correctly forecasted the premature turn of charley back in 2004 but he left a long time ago

Ha. I had no clue he was ozonepete. I guess he has his hands full with Twitter and knows his stuff will get posted here anyhow by someone. I miss the old bunch but we have plenty of good folks who have been around for a while and some new ones as well.

[robbielyn]

Aric who used to do your show with you back in the day?

Watkins, Mike Naso, Zachary Fradella, Charley.. couple other here and there.

also Ozonepete is not Ortt.

oh well someone told me he went by another handle on here due to conflict of interest maybe it’s another name i heard. anyways, i don’t know if you remember but i got to read a nhc disco once. i was told i had a good radio voice. ok back to elsa sorry for the memory lane trip.