ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Southeast landfall? South east of what?

Both of those guys used to post on here back in the day. Do they not do that anymore?

i’ve seen mike watkins last year and maybe this year too but not as often as the good ol days. and derek did incognito as ozonepete i believe but not as himself. and not as ozonepete since 2018 or 19. please feel free to correct the dates time gets away from me. not many long timers left. still got wxman 57, Aric Dunn, Hammy, the moderators and administrators of course, but many hv left. i used to love nexrad. he correctly forecasted the premature turn of charley back in 2004 but he left a long time ago

Ha. I had no clue he was ozonepete. I guess he has his hands full with Twitter and knows his stuff will get posted here anyhow by someone. I miss the old bunch but we have plenty of good folks who have been around for a while and some new ones as well.

He is NOT ozonepete. Derek does not post here anymore due to job concerns.

[eastcoastFL]

about an hour or so until the LLC is offshore. moving NW.

https://i.ibb.co/dMhHvF8/Capture.png

Hey Aric, do you think it could start a more northerly heading sooner than forecast? Also can you tell if she’s slowed down more? Seems like she has

[rigbyrigz]

One thing the NHC has on this storm is serious cred when it comes to track. Don't expect it to shift dramatically from what they've been projecting. It's been ticking west the past few cycles but in small steps. Perhaps it steps back a tad east but my money remains on only small adjustments.

i agree but at the same time coc’s hv been known to relocate under the convection or even been influenced by land so my statement does hv precedent.

I expect the 11 to tick back east to maybe a Levy county landfall instead of Dixie county. If that happens it's actually bad news for the west coast

TBH there really hasn't been much of precise onshore location forecast... "somewhere in the Big Bend area" is usually what one hears. Even Levi was very "non-specific". The models look to me more like West Taylor County than Dixie or Levy. With the clean versus dirty side peculiarities of this (and most) storm, if one is located in Coast Taylor County (as I am) it really is making prep and planning extra hard.

Not to mention whatever track is showing onshore arrival, appears to be focusing on the LLC which is 20 miles or so west of the heaviest and (divorced from the) so-called wrapping convection in View.

OK< besides my moaning this plight, a REAL question: Can anyone give a somewhat accurate forecast of where the messy central mass will LIKELY arrive on the coast? Appalachicola? Steinhatchee? Levy? DIxie? (Cedar Key). Thanks, I realize its a guessing game but we ARE getting close.

[eastcoastFL]

Soley air mass induced but this soupy deep flow can result in a tropical rain dump by itself. Late tomorrow afternoon should bring discreet cells and rain bands that will no doubt bring some damaging wind gusts along with a broader envelope of tropical downpours. I'll be surprised if there's not at least a few brief tornadic events tomm. through Wednesday.

Flooding is my only concern. I’m sure it will be gusty from time to time but (fingers crossed) not enough to do damage or knock out power

We had a squall come through East Port St Lucie around 7-7:30 that deposited all of the pool furniture in the yard and knocked down a queen palm down in the yard across the street. Luckily it fell away from the neighbors house. I wasn’t home but my wife said it was like a hurricane outside for about 10 minutes.

I think that one missed us to the west, I saw a big red spot on radar west of me heading for PSL. As long as the lights stay on you’re good to go! Stay safe.

[cheezyWXguy]

i’ve seen mike watkins last year and maybe this year too but not as often as the good ol days. and derek did incognito as ozonepete i believe but not as himself. and not as ozonepete since 2018 or 19. please feel free to correct the dates time gets away from me. not many long timers left. still got wxman 57, Aric Dunn, Hammy, the moderators and administrators of course, but many hv left. i used to love nexrad. he correctly forecasted the premature turn of charley back in 2004 but he left a long time ago

Ha. I had no clue he was ozonepete. I guess he has his hands full with Twitter and knows his stuff will get posted here anyhow by someone. I miss the old bunch but we have plenty of good folks who have been around for a while and some new ones as well.

He is NOT ozonepete. Derek does not post here anymore due to job concerns.

Derek posted as alyono for a short while I believe, but ozonepete is a different person

[Vdogg]

about an hour or so until the LLC is offshore. moving NW.

https://i.ibb.co/dMhHvF8/Capture.png

Looks like part of it is touching water right now. Small burst of convection around what should be the llc.

[psyclone]

Aric who used to do your show with you back in the day?

Watkins, Mike Naso, Zachary Fradella, Charley.. couple other here and there.

also Ozonepete is not Ortt.

oh well someone told me he went by another handle on here due to conflict of interest maybe it’s another name i heard. anyways, i don’t know if you remember but i got to read a nhc disco once. i was told i had a good radio voice. ok back to elsa sorry for the memory lane trip.

He went by Alyono.

[eastcoastFL]

Aric who used to do your show with you back in the day?

Watkins, Mike Naso, Zachary Fradella, Charley.. couple other here and there.

also Ozonepete is not Ortt.

How do I not know about your show?

[Hammy]

Southeast landfall? South east of what?

Both of those guys used to post on here back in the day. Do they not do that anymore?

i’ve seen mike watkins last year and maybe this year too but not as often as the good ol days. and derek did incognito as ozonepete i believe but not as himself. and not as ozonepete since 2018 or 19. please feel free to correct the dates time gets away from me. not many long timers left. still got wxman 57, Aric Dunn, Hammy, the moderators and administrators of course, but many hv left. i used to love nexrad. he correctly forecasted the premature turn of charley back in 2004 but he left a long time ago

Ha. I had no clue he was ozonepete. I guess he has his hands full with Twitter and knows his stuff will get posted here anyhow by someone. I miss the old bunch but we have plenty of good folks who have been around for a while and some new ones as well.

I believe Derek Ortt was Alyono if I'm not mistaken.

[Aric Dunn]

about an hour or so until the LLC is offshore. moving NW.

https://i.ibb.co/dMhHvF8/Capture.png

Hey Aric, do you think it could start a more northerly heading sooner than forecast? Also can you tell if she’s slowed down more? Seems like she has

I don't see a reason for a northerly turn just yet. baring any center relocation to the east given it the appearance of a northerly turn.. the steering is pointing the NW for at least the next 24 hours.

but you know how quickly things can change.

Speed looks about the same 10-15? hard to say with out actual center fixes.

[tolakram]

OK< besides my moaning this plight, a REAL question: Can anyone give a somewhat accurate forecast of where the messy central mass will LIKELY arrive on the coast? Appalachicola? Steinhatchee? Levy? DIxie? (Cedar Key). Thanks, I realize its a guessing game but we ARE getting close.

The NHC track has been the most accurate so far, why think something else is going to be more accurate? As we've seen many times, the closer it gets the more wobbles mean something, but I doubt the track moves much unless the models suddenly all shift.

[eastcoastFL]

Southeast landfall? South east of what?

Both of those guys used to post on here back in the day. Do they not do that anymore?

i’ve seen mike watkins last year and maybe this year too but not as often as the good ol days. and derek did incognito as ozonepete i believe but not as himself. and not as ozonepete since 2018 or 19. please feel free to correct the dates time gets away from me. not many long timers left. still got wxman 57, Aric Dunn, Hammy, the moderators and administrators of course, but many hv left. i used to love nexrad. he correctly forecasted the premature turn of charley back in 2004 but he left a long time ago

There are a few of us here that have been around since the palm beach post forum days, late 90s...seen a whole bunch of discos and nhc tracks

I moved to Florida in 2002 and started lurking then and I think I signed up when Katrina was passing through.

[Nimbus]

The center is probably that hot tower just west of Matanzas coming off the coast now?

[psyclone]

OK< besides my moaning this plight, a REAL question: Can anyone give a somewhat accurate forecast of where the messy central mass will LIKELY arrive on the coast? Appalachicola? Steinhatchee? Levy? DIxie? (Cedar Key). Thanks, I realize its a guessing game but we ARE getting close.

The NHC track has been the most accurate so far, why think something else is going to be more accurate? As we've seen many times, the closer it gets the more wobbles mean something, but I doubt the track moves much unless the models suddenly all shift.

The last 2 cycles were Dixie county. If it bumps east back to Levy...that will be where we were a day ago. The NHC gets an A+ for track forecasting on this storm so they get deserved credit. They haven't budged very much at all

[eastcoastFL]

i’ve seen mike watkins last year and maybe this year too but not as often as the good ol days. and derek did incognito as ozonepete i believe but not as himself. and not as ozonepete since 2018 or 19. please feel free to correct the dates time gets away from me. not many long timers left. still got wxman 57, Aric Dunn, Hammy, the moderators and administrators of course, but many hv left. i used to love nexrad. he correctly forecasted the premature turn of charley back in 2004 but he left a long time ago

Ha. I had no clue he was ozonepete. I guess he has his hands full with Twitter and knows his stuff will get posted here anyhow by someone. I miss the old bunch but we have plenty of good folks who have been around for a while and some new ones as well.

I believe Derek Ortt was Alyono if I'm not mistaken.

Guess it wasn’t much of a secret. I really used to enjoy Watkins posts and forecasts. They were very helpful and detailed.

[Hammy]

Center is either near, or just to the south west of, what appears to be a formative mid-level eyewall. If the shear doesn't increase in that time, this could organize fairly quickly in the 8-12h after emerging

[Aric Dunn]

The center is probably that hot tower just west of Matanzas coming off the coast now?

Getting pretty close to coast. That tower may help reform/migrate the LLC jump to the coast though.

[eastcoastFL]

about an hour or so until the LLC is offshore. moving NW.

https://i.ibb.co/dMhHvF8/Capture.png

Hey Aric, do you think it could start a more northerly heading sooner than forecast? Also can you tell if she’s slowed down more? Seems like she has

I don't see a reason for a northerly turn just yet. baring any center relocation to the east given it the appearance of a northerly turn.. the steering is pointing the NW for at least the next 24 hours.

but you know how quickly things can change.

Speed looks about the same 10-15? hard to say with out actual center fixes.

Thank you. Gonna be a wet day tomorrow for most of the state one way or another

[blp]

Here is what I see.



Loop:

[tropicwatch]

Last advisory they said it was just east of Havana which is real close to the coast. Hurricane Hunters are close to it but appear to be having comm problems.