ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Just had an intense band in Key West...going yo be interesting to see what kind of winds were clocked. Looks like we still have more coming too.

42 mph gust in Key West. 50 mph gust at Smith Shoal Lighthouse which is closer to the LLC.

One of those times I wish I had a weather station at the house...seemed like we had a bit more than that at my house. Possibly a microburst or tiny meso vort that KW Airport did not experience. Unfortunately only the airport data gets 'published' every hour on the website but if the NWS records significant winds they will mention it.

Almost calm now. Possibly some more strong winds coming before noon.

[SFLcane]

FL E Coast should see some squalls from the looks of how sheard this system is.

Na… radar is bone dry. A non-event honestly. cloudy with a nice breeze.

[Stangfriik]

That current blow up of convection is just to the east of the llc no? Hard to imagine how its going to strengthen with that dry air slot and shear though.

[Prosepro]

Looks terrible on satellite. Weak LLC WNW of convection. Not even a 30kt sustained wind in Key West as it passed. Wall of dry air to the west is touching the center, and SW shear is on the increase. Not a recipe for strengthening, despite the wacky Euro prediction. May be a 40kt TS now.

Thank you for your insights!
What maximum wind gusts will I get on Tampa Bay right on the Bay in St. Petersburg? 70 mph? Does 70 mph sustained lmean gusts to 85 mph for me today? Thank you!

We are in Gulfport a few blocks from Boca Ciega Bay in Pinellas County. I seriously doubt we'll have to worry about 70 mph sustained winds, but 40 mph sustained winds will drop some trees and knock out power for a lot of us. So have fresh batteries in your flashlights and battery operated fans, we might need them late tonight.

Weather Channel is in Clearwater Beach, so you can see what is happening on the coast on TV.

We do have a Live Beach Cam in Surfside Condos on Clearwater Beach as well. It is pretty right now.

https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html

[caneman]

Per the 8:00 update the NHC is still calling for some strengthening. As mentioned above prepare for surge and likely some power outages

[aspen]

More like a line of squalls than rotating bands:

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa10.JPG

Hi Colin, welcome back

[NDG]

[wxman57]

Sustained wind to 35 mph gusting 45 mph in Key west a few minutes ago. Strongest sustained wind yet - as Elsa is moving away.

[Evil Jeremy]

Just checked out the satellite, can’t imagine this will restrenghten back into a Hurricane prior to FL landfall. Aside from a single pop of new convection near the CoC, this looks like a decaying corpse of a TC.

Still, I’m supposed to be driving from Asheville NC back to Miami on Thursday. Might need to push that to Friday if there is to be severe flooding along the path, but I’m honestly doubtful of the severity of those impacts right now, just based on this mornings visible. Time will tell.

By the way, congrats on the adminship Cycloneye!

[Vdogg]

That hot tower gets much larger it's actually going to cover the LLC...

[wxman57]

You can see that one heavy squall east of the center. It's not near the center.

[NDG]

More like a line of squalls than rotating bands:

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa10.JPG

As always you have it too far west
LLC is clearly on the edge of the deep convection. Why use the satellite to estimate where the center when is so close to the radar?

[cheezyWXguy]

More like a line of squalls than rotating bands:

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa10.JPG

You have it too far west
LLC is clearly on the edge of the deep convection. Why use the satellite to estimate where the center when is so close to the radar?

https://i.imgur.com/qZY7DcT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/zDDwJtX.gif

Not necessarily. The beam height is 4-5000 ft up that far away from the radar site, which wouldn’t confirm if the llc is directly below.

[wxman57]

Visible loop puts the center west of that radar image. Radar is about 50 miles from the center. Radar beam height calculator website is gone, but that rotation could be at 6,000 ft. Anyone have another radar beam height calculator website?

[igoldfish]

Fort Myers - gentle rain, no wind. Calm before the storm. Stay safe everyone

Make that Fort Myers Beach..

[Cat5James]

Large burst of convection near the center

[NDG]

More like a line of squalls than rotating bands:

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa10.JPG

You have it too far west
LLC is clearly on the edge of the deep convection. Why use the satellite to estimate where the center when is so close to the radar?

https://i.imgur.com/qZY7DcT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/zDDwJtX.gif

Not necessarily. The beam height is 4-5000 ft up that far away from the radar site, which wouldn’t confirm if the llc is directly below.

4-5k feet is part of the LLC.

[NDG]

Visible loop puts the center west of that radar image. Radar is about 50 miles from the center. Radar beam height calculator website is gone, but that rotation could be at 6,000 ft. Anyone have another radar beam height calculator website?

The NHC 8 AM update puts the COC at 82.6W, right by the deep convection. Wish we had a recon to confirm it.

[InfernoFlameCat]

You can see that one heavy squall east of the center. It's not near the center.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa11.JPG

I am sorry but I don’t think the center is on that red spot. I see on satellite it looks to be just east of the convection

[jfk08c]

Visible loop puts the center west of that radar image. Radar is about 50 miles from the center. Radar beam height calculator website is gone, but that rotation could be at 6,000 ft. Anyone have another radar beam height calculator website?

Radarscope will calculate it for you. With the 0.5° tilt, the beam height at the eastern side of circulation is ~3k feet