#3715 Postby typhoonty » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:49 am
Wxman57 is right, I can see low level cirrus moving north just to the west of the convective blow up. That wouldn't happen if the center was co-located with the convection. The canopy is expanding so I guess it's possible it could cover the center, but it's having an issue making progress to the west due to the shear.
This has the structure of incalculable amount of June tropical storms I've tracked making a run to the Florida west coast. It's not impossible for Elsa to become a hurricane, hence the watch, but the quick intensification episode I was worried about previously seems very unlikely.
Note: 3000 feet is
NOT the surface. The MLC has been displaced to the east of Elsa the last three days. It has looked ominous and "better" on radar with eyewall-like features appearing. The reality is a lot less rosy for Elsa.
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FSU Meteorology student, opinions are mine, 20 years experience covering TC's, consult NHC/Local officials when making decisions.
Gabrielle '01, Michelle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Dennis '05, Katrina '05, Rita '05, Wilma '05, Fay '08, Isaac '12 Hermine '16, Irma '17, Michael '18, Eta '20, Elsa '21, IAN '22, Idalia '23, Debby '24, Helene '24