When will Fred form?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 04, 2021 5:20 pm

Made the poll about when will the next name storm (Fred) will form. This poll has only 5 options and will close for voting on July 11 at 6:20 PM EDT.

aspen · #2 Postby **aspen** » Sun Jul 04, 2021 5:24 pm

I put July 21-31st. The suppressive CCKW might give the Atlantic a break until the last third of the month, when it moves out and an enhanced CCKW moves in. Fred will develop from an AEW, triggered by the CCKW.

#3 Postby **AnnularCane** » Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:01 pm

July 21-31, going with aspen's prediction of a late July pickup in activity. :wink:

Assuming, of course, something doesn't pop up in the subtropics. (If I recall correctly, I believe at one point last year we were supposed to have a lull but that didn't quite work out?)

Stormybajan · #4 Postby **Stormybajan** » Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:31 pm

July 21st-31st..I think we are about to enter the longest break of the entire Atlantic Hurricane season of nearly 3 weeks..then at the back end of July we may see 2-3 storms then we are off to the races in August... we will see. The break should give the atlantic time to warm up

Teban54 · #5 Postby **Teban54** » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:06 pm

No option for July 10 or earlier? Watch Fred suddenly develop out of nowhere before July 10 and screw the poll, like Kyle last year.

On a more serious note, to beat Fay 2020's record for the earliest 6th storm, Fred will have to form by July 9. Doesn't look likely at this moment, but if there's a flurry of storms forming in mid to late July (IIRC some models hinted at favorable background for this), it might help Grace and even Henri beat their respective records set by Gonzalo (July 22) and Hanna (July 24).
Noot betting on this happening, but the fact that there's a legitimate possibly that the most active season's multiple formation records have a chance to be broken the very next season is just insane.

ElectricStorm · #6 Postby **ElectricStorm** » Mon Jul 05, 2021 4:14 am

Went with July 21-31 like most people here. I would think we shouldn't see anything until then but who knows at this point with every disturbance trying to spin up the last couple years...

AlphaToOmega · #7 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:25 am

Most development in the Atlantic so far has been in the subtropics (Ana, Bill, and Danny). A suppressive MJO phase does not hinder subtropical development. Based on this, I am going with July 11-20.

InfernoFlameCat · #8 Postby **InfernoFlameCat** » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:12 am

There is a wave in the mid Atlantic that may become Fred in about 9 days or so I believe near the Yucatán or it will become a storm in the pacific. If not, then that wave I have a topic about I think has a shot.

#9 Postby **chaser1** » Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:52 am

Fully tropical origin development by the 20th.

NorthPalm-Rainman · #10 Postby **NorthPalm-Rainman** » Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:17 am

Could this be Fred exiting Africa now?

https://ibb.co/VYK817V

underthwx · #11 Postby **underthwx** » Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:20 am

I will say between July 10th to July 17th...pure guesswork, but it's July after all, so that's my guess...

Blinhart · #12 Postby **Blinhart** » Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:39 pm

Teban54 wrote:No option for July 10 or earlier? Watch Fred suddenly develop out of nowhere before July 10 and screw the poll, like Kyle last year.

On a more serious note, to beat Fay 2020's record for the earliest 6th storm, Fred will have to form by July 9. Doesn't look likely at this moment, but if there's a flurry of storms forming in mid to late July (IIRC some models hinted at favorable background for this), it might help Grace and even Henri beat their respective records set by Gonzalo (July 22) and Hanna (July 24).
Noot betting on this happening, but the fact that there's a legitimate possibly that the most active season's multiple formation records have a chance to be broken the very next season is just insane.

I was wondering the same thing, we have a stalled boundary with a low at the end of it sitting at the edge of the GoM, this could very easily spin up like Humberto, so why wasn't there a pre July 11 option.

Hypercane_Kyle · #13 Postby **Hypercane_Kyle** » Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:14 am

Late-July as the CCKW returns.

#14 Postby **abajan** » Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:49 am

cycloneye wrote:Made the poll about when will the next name storm (Fred) will form. This poll has only 5 options and will close for voting on July 11 at 6:20 PM EDT.

Thanks. Incidentally, congrats on your well-deserved Admin status!

Somehow, I hadn't noticed the switch from mod to admin until yesterday.
(I guess I'm not very observant. :lol:

)

StPeteMike · #15 Postby **StPeteMike** » Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:17 pm

Nothing pointing to development in the next few weeks. Caribbean doesn’t really have the environment at the moment, not many strong fronts that would try to spin up something off the Atlantic seaboard, MDR is pretty quiet compared to how it was a couple weeks ago.

Latter part of the month will be when to watch, Caribbean should be the area to keep an eye on.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:18 pm

abajan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Made the poll about when will the next name storm (Fred) will form. This poll has only 5 options and will close for voting on July 11 at 6:20 PM EDT.

Thanks. Incidentally, congrats on your well-deserved Admin status!
Somehow, I hadn't noticed the switch from mod to admin until yesterday.
(I guess I'm not very observant. )

Thank you. This is the new admins announcement thread.

viewtopic.php?f=37&t=121939&p=2910997#p2910997

Category5Kaiju · #17 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:49 pm

The supressive CCKW may keep a lid on things for now, but based on how this season is going so far, it would be hard for me to believe that we would need to wait until August for the sixth named storm to form. My early guess is that Fred will be a weak short lived mid-Atlantic fish storm that originates from the US much like 2020's Dolly, Edouard, or Kyle.

#18 Postby **abajan** » Wed Jul 07, 2021 7:57 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:The supressive CCKW may keep a lid on things for now, but based on how this season is going so far, it would be hard for me to believe that we would need to wait until August for the sixth named storm to form. My early guess is that Fred will be a weak short lived mid-Atlantic fish storm that originates from the US much like 2020's Dolly, Edouard, or Kyle.

Or Fred might just form from this ball of convection tumbling off the West African coast:

On second thought, I get fooled by balls of convection emerging from West Africa every hurricane season. Not this year! :lol:

#19 Postby **AnnularCane** » Wed Jul 07, 2021 8:15 pm

abajan wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:The supressive CCKW may keep a lid on things for now, but based on how this season is going so far, it would be hard for me to believe that we would need to wait until August for the sixth named storm to form. My early guess is that Fred will be a weak short lived mid-Atlantic fish storm that originates from the US much like 2020's Dolly, Edouard, or Kyle.

Or Fred might just form from this ball of convection tumbling off the West African coast:

https://i.imgur.com/WflRwgG.gif

On second thought, I get fooled by balls of convection emerging from West Africa every hurricane season. Not this year!

Riiiiight. 8-)

But that IS a good-looking wave.

Blinhart · #20 Postby **Blinhart** » Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:15 am

AnnularCane wrote:
abajan wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:The supressive CCKW may keep a lid on things for now, but based on how this season is going so far, it would be hard for me to believe that we would need to wait until August for the sixth named storm to form. My early guess is that Fred will be a weak short lived mid-Atlantic fish storm that originates from the US much like 2020's Dolly, Edouard, or Kyle.

Or Fred might just form from this ball of convection tumbling off the West African coast:

https://i.imgur.com/WflRwgG.gif

On second thought, I get fooled by balls of convection emerging from West Africa every hurricane season. Not this year!

Riiiiight.

But that IS a good-looking wave.

Yeah, it better fall apart right away, like they normally do this time of year, if not, this could be our first Major of the year.