ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Elsa building up an impressive eye wall. Too bad it’s tilted(really a good thing just I like beautiful Eyewalls.)

I know the word “relocation” gets thrown around way too much, but I’m starting to think that could be what’s happening. I see the area that wxman is pointing out on visible but it isn’t all that clearly defined. It looks to me like it is embedded in a broader, more elongated w-e circulation that extends under the new convection. Llc may be stretching and getting pulled into the storms down shear. I could be wrong though, but since recon is in the air well know soon enough.

[wxman57]

There appear to be two vortices, the north one looks like what radar is seeing:

[NDG]

[InfernoFlameCat]

Exposed center relocation? That is pretty strange. Elsa is weird

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.imgur.com/fhHBU3h.gif

Shear is going to destroy that eyewall soon

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Has the radar signature of a healthy tropical storm, but with the track coming so close to the west Florida beach communities and the cumulative forward speed I would be prepared for hurricane force gusts on the beaches. Does look like the dry air and shear are exposing the center a little more so hopefully it does go poof.

[psyclone]

If this system gets much more sheared my region may end up with a center passing to the west and the convection passing to the east. That would be hilarious.

[ronjon]

Radar now showing a tightening circulation with almost 3/4 of it surrounded by convection banding. It strengthening to me and would not be surprised to see a pressure fall when recon gets there. Key west airport reported sustained winds of 43 mph with gusts to 59 mph. And they're 65 miles east of the center.

[MGC]

Too much shear and dry air for Elsa to become a hurricane again IMO....of course who knows with Elsa. Weather here on the Miss Coast were terrible this morning so not surprised that recon was delayed....MGC

[drezee]

There appear to be two vortices, the north one looks like what radar is seeing:

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa16.JPG

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1412436966067511302

[eastcoastFL]

NWS TAMPA


National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL AL052021
1136 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This product covers West Central and Southwest Florida

**Tropical Storm Elsa moving over the southeast Gulf of Mexico**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Coastal Hillsborough
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Inland Charlotte and Inland Lee

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Charlotte,
Inland Citrus, Inland Hernando, Inland Hillsborough, Inland
Lee, Inland Levy, Inland Manatee, Inland Pasco, Inland
Sarasota, and Sumter
- A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
Watch are in effect for Coastal Citrus, Coastal Hernando,
Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Levy, Coastal Pasco, and Pinellas
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Coastal Charlotte, Coastal Lee, Coastal Manatee, and
Coastal Sarasota

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 190 miles south of Mouth of Tampa Bay FL or about 130
miles south-southwest of Fort Myers FL
- 24.9N 82.8W
- Storm Intensity 60 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa continues to threaten mainly coastal areas along
the west coast of the Florida peninsula. Elsa is expected to track
north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico just off the west coast of
Florida today and tonight. This will bring a threat of tropical storm
force winds, localized flash flooding, storm surge, hazardous marine
conditions, and possibly a few tornadoes to portions of west central
and southwest Florida.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
along the west coast of Florida. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across inland areas.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts along coastal areas of west central and southwest Florida.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across west central and southwest Florida.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across west central and southwest Florida. Potential
impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across west central and southwest Florida. Potential impacts
include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and boats tossed about. Dangerous
projectiles can add to the toll.

[psyclone]

Radar now showing a tightening circulation with almost 3/4 of it surrounded by convection banding. It strengthening to me and would not be surprised to see a pressure fall when recon gets there. Key west airport reported sustained winds of 43 mph with gusts to 59 mph. And they're 65 miles east of the center.

There's definitely a good band of convection with a long tail extending all the way down south of Cuba on the east side of this system. A heavy rain and SVR risk is likely to evolve over parts of the peninsula.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa looks very good on radar. I am sure it is intensified near hurricane force strength. Compared to earlier this morning radar is absolutely a beast.

[aspen]

Recon has just taken off after being delayed by bad weather.

[eastcoastFL]

Cuba radar still showing Elsas blob south of Cuba. Looks like she’s slowly pulling it north so the Keys may get that later

[underthwx]

Elsa looks very good on radar. I am sure it is intensified near hurricane force strength. Compared to earlier this morning radar is absolutely a beast.

Any word on the status of recon?

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/fhHBU3h.gif

That loop looks like something maybe trying to wrap around the NW side

[JaxGator]

Joe thinks that Elsa is going to get stronger despite the shear present. Elsa continues to confuse yet fascinate.

Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
TROPICAL STORM ELSAWeathrrBell has been saying that this is going to strengthen west of Florida and now hurricane watches her up. This storm is going to be stronger according to us the entire journey all the way to New England https://nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a ... e#contents

The NHC says that upper level divergence from a trough in the east-central Gulf could help the cyclone strengthen. From the 11am discussion: “The environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is not ideal for strengthening, with moderate westerly shear and some dry mid-level dry air. However, upper-level divergence ahead of a trough over the east-central Gulf could result in some intensification of the system during the next 12-24 hours. The official forecast continues to show the cyclone nearing hurricane strength while it approaches the north Florida Gulf coast, but this is at the high
end of the numerical intensity guidance”.

[wxman57]

Elsa looks very good on radar. I am sure it is intensified near hurricane force strength. Compared to earlier this morning radar is absolutely a beast.

There is no evidence of any wind near hurricane strength at the surface. Obs have suggested max winds in the 45-50 kt range. Convection is pulsing up and down. Doesn't appear to be getting better organized. There's a very fine line between the leading edge of strong winds aloft enhancing outflow and causing shear.