ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

She is 999 mb...per recon

57kts SFMR

[chaser1]

I suspect recon will find 1005 mb. Northward motion and increased convection should be adequate to help mitigate SSW shear and I'm becoming increasingly bullish that Elsa will once again (barely) deepen just enough to attain Hurricane status prior to landfall in the Clearwater area.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is back in business

[StormPyrate]

My weather station here in Clearwater
https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/ff ... 55bd82b425
Still shows my old address I am further north now

[chaser1]

She is 999 mb...per recon

57kts SFMR

Wait.....what? 999mb??

[Hypercane_Kyle]

55 knots, 1001 mb is where I'd peg Elsa right now based on recon.

Significantly more symmetrical than she ever was in the Caribbean, that's for sure.

[NDG]

Elsa has definitely deeped since last night.

CoC near 25.2N 82.95W

170030 2511N 08258W 8430 01495 9994 +208 +063 279007 012 027 001 00
170100 2511N 08256W 8440 01486 9994 +209 +067 231017 018 029 000 03

[Vdogg]

She is 999 mb...per recon

That Euro 982 at landfall not looking so crazy anymore...

[Aric Dunn]

Should easily be a hurricane once the NE and east quads are sampled.

[InfernoFlameCat]

She is 999 mb...per recon

That Euro 982 at landfall not looking so crazy anymore...

Still looks like the Euro needs to be put in a straight jacket to me
If this goes below 990 I will be shocked.

[drewschmaltz]

Provided the current track and SSTs, thank goodness for the last minute increase in shear. This path, at this speed, and into Tampa could have been real trouble. That said, I hope the shear keeps up....

[NDG]

No more guessing where the LLC is.

[psyclone]

Should easily be a hurricane once the NE and east quads are sampled.

You think this is a hurricane now?

[AlphaToOmega]

Elsa has a chance at becoming a hurricane again.

[artist]

Tornado Warning
FLC021-051-061745-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0004.210706T1711Z-210706T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
111 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
North central Collier County in southwestern Florida...
Central Hendry County in southern Florida...

* Until 145 PM EDT.

* At 111 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 9 miles east of Immokalee, moving northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Felda.

[chaser1]

As I see it, the apparent MLC is begrudgingly moving essentially to the north and is limiting the west tilted LLC from gaining significant westward motion. Whether "landfall" actually occurs around Largo/Clearwater as I believe, I have to think that if max winds increase to near hurricane force.... those conditions (sustained or in gusts) are most apt to occur between Largo & Clearwater. I think here is where we'll see Elsa's track begin to nudge NNE.

Just up the road in Clearwater, plan to sit on the lanai and watch it trash the pool

Right where I live. Largo-Indian Rocks. Expecting to lose power. Been there done that. 13 days combined with Frances and Jeanne and 6 days for Irma

Front row seat I'll bring the beer & munchies lol

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa appears to have produced a tornado because in the tornado warning in south Florida there is a CC drop over the rotation.

[Aric Dunn]

Should easily be a hurricane once the NE and east quads are sampled.

You think this is a hurricane now?

we have 55/56kt sfmr in the SE quad with no convection ? no need to question if the NE/east quads are 9 mph higher in heavy deep convection when we are getting radar estimates above 100 mph with consistent 90+ ...

[AlphaToOmega]

999 mb would easily be a hurricane for Elsa.

[Nimbus]

She is 999 mb...per recon

57kts SFMR

Wait.....what? 999mb??

Sharp pressure gradient the dry shear is helping keep the intensity down but the Euro might verify 980's wouldn't be too bad but probably means a lot more power outages for Pinellas county.