ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde measured 1000mb.

[InfernoFlameCat]

999 mb would easily be a hurricane for Elsa.

If she hit 980 that would be a major hurricane Elsa lol.

[Dean4Storms]

What in tarnation is this? 1000mb?

[drewschmaltz]

Dropsonde measured 1000mb.

7mb in just a few hours. Could get interesting FAST at that rate.

[InfernoFlameCat]

That drop shows a stacked system. Also incredible drop that was perfect it landed with 2 knot winds.

[DestinHurricane]

:double:

Dropsonde measured 1000mb.

7mb in just a few hours. Could get interesting FAST at that rate.

it did not drop that much in just a few hours, it took longer than that

[chaser1]

Should easily be a hurricane once the NE and east quads are sampled.

You think this is a hurricane now?

we have 55/56kt sfmr in the SE quad with no convection ? no need to question if the NE/east quads are 9 mph higher in heavy deep convection when we are getting radar estimates above 100 mph with consistent 90+ ...

Yeah, I'm thinking the same thing except my guess is those northeast quad radar depicted winds are still above the surface (...... for now lol). Things getting a bit spicy.

[cheezyWXguy]

That drop shows a stacked system. Also incredible drop that was perfect it landed with 2 knot winds.

This. The llc has definitely tucked in under the circulation center observed on radar

[caneman]

57kts SFMR

Wait.....what? 999mb??

Sharp pressure gradient the dry shear is helping keep the intensity down but the Euro might verify 980's wouldn't be too bad but probably means a lot more power outages for Pinellas county.

Yep. 60 to 70 mph puts alot of us along the beach and a few miles inland out

[Aric Dunn]

You think this is a hurricane now?

we have 55/56kt sfmr in the SE quad with no convection ? no need to question if the NE/east quads are 9 mph higher in heavy deep convection when we are getting radar estimates above 100 mph with consistent 90+ ...

Yeah, I'm thinking the same thing except my guess is those northeast quad radar depicted winds are still above the surface (...... for now lol). Things getting a bit spicy.

Right, I don't think we are going to see all that mixing down.. but we are talking 9 to 10 mph from weaker quad with no convection to the right front quad with most of the needed winds would come from forward speed.

[caneman]

As I see it, the apparent MLC is begrudgingly moving essentially to the north and is limiting the west tilted LLC from gaining significant westward motion. Whether "landfall" actually occurs around Largo/Clearwater as I believe, I have to think that if max winds increase to near hurricane force.... those conditions (sustained or in gusts) are most apt to occur between Largo & Clearwater. I think here is where we'll see Elsa's track begin to nudge NNE.

I'm gonna have to veto that...although it is possible. Here's another possibility...It leans right and ducks in south of the bay...Like Gabby 01 did..leaving Pinellas and points north with nothing. when a storm is running parallel to the coast, the slightest change in heading can lead to a vastly different outcome

Not likely. Gabby came in south of us and I still got a good blow on the beaches. This is far different paralleling the beach

[AlphaToOmega]

Looking at recon, the pressure is dropping very quickly. Tropical Storm Elsa is likely a high-end tropical storm; it could be a hurricane. Based on the current rate of intensification, I think it could be a high-end Category I/low-end Category II at landfall.

[NDG]

[chaser1]

My guess is NHC won't wait till 3:00pm, and probably will go with a Special Advisory expanding Watches & Warnings to come out shortly.

Edit- Next advisory IS at 2:00pm so update to winds and pressure will be discussed then.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looking at recon, the pressure is dropping very quickly. Tropical Storm Elsa is likely a high-end tropical storm; it could be a hurricane. Based on the current rate of intensification, I think it could be a high-end Category I/low-end Category II at landfall.

I think based on presentation that Elsa is near her peak in the gulf and will weaken or stabilize from here out.

[HurricaneBelle]

I'm gonna have to veto that...although it is possible. Here's another possibility...It leans right and ducks in south of the bay...Like Gabby 01 did..leaving Pinellas and points north with nothing. when a storm is running parallel to the coast, the slightest change in heading can lead to a vastly different outcome

Not likely. Gabby came in south of us and I still got a good blow on the beaches. This is far different paralleling the beach

Gabrielle 2001 was a very weird storm with some subtropical characteristics, came in straight from the west and had a pressure of 980mb yet was classified a TS because hurricane winds weren't mixing down to the surface.

[NDG]

This is fairly good tight little system and tight pressure gradient. Bouy 42026 just west of the LLC is showing a pressure of 1011mb.

[Nimbus]

Wait.....what? 999mb??

Sharp pressure gradient the dry shear is helping keep the intensity down but the Euro might verify 980's wouldn't be too bad but probably means a lot more power outages for Pinellas county.

Yep. 60 to 70 mph puts alot of us along the beach and a few miles inland out

They tell us not to focus on the exact track, but the east side of that eyewall is going to be where the 70+ MPH winds are. Forward motion to the north seems to be pretty steady and with the well defined pressure profile there doesn't seem to be much chance of it jumping inland south of Tampa bay.

[InfernoFlameCat]

A tight pressure gradient is not good. That means this likely rapidly deepened.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMO, there's a reasonable chance that Elsa makes landfall in Pinellas county. Right now the forecast track is only 5-6 miles away from the coastline. A slight deviation eastwards could result in landfall. Impacts should be the same regardless.