ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

I'm gonna have to veto that...although it is possible. Here's another possibility...It leans right and ducks in south of the bay...Like Gabby 01 did..leaving Pinellas and points north with nothing. when a storm is running parallel to the coast, the slightest change in heading can lead to a vastly different outcome

Not likely. Gabby came in south of us and I still got a good blow on the beaches. This is far different paralleling the beach

Gabrielle 2001 was a very weird storm with some subtropical characteristics, came in straight from the west and had a pressure of 980mb yet was classified a TS because hurricane winds weren't mixing down to the surface.

Yep but there were many reports of hurricane winds. Should have been upgraded. It's the forgotten storm since it occurred right after 9-11. I remember hearing the hurricane plane flying low up and down the beaches. As I recall air travel was still banned. There had to be special approval. It was surreal. Many of us were still spooked at the sound of a place so to have that sound combined with the height of the storm was nerve wracking

[psyclone]

Sharp pressure gradient the dry shear is helping keep the intensity down but the Euro might verify 980's wouldn't be too bad but probably means a lot more power outages for Pinellas county.

Yep. 60 to 70 mph puts alot of us along the beach and a few miles inland out

They tell us not to focus on the exact track, but the east side of that eyewall is going to be where the 70+ MPH winds are. Forward motion to the north seems to be pretty steady and with the well defined pressure profile there doesn't seem to be much chance of it jumping inland south of Tampa bay.

As of right now...it's aiming straight at us in Pinellas. but since there's nothing west of the storm...the slightest deviation to the right would take everything east of here..

[FLpanhandle91]

That drop shows a stacked system. Also incredible drop that was perfect it landed with 2 knot winds.

This. The llc has definitely tucked in under the circulation center observed on radar

I wish I wasn't busy at work so I could post the loop, but looking through the Key West radar on RadarScope's percepitation depiction, you see what appears to be the LLC scoot right under the MLC in a span on literally 30 minutes.

[NDG]

IMO, there's a reasonable chance that Elsa makes landfall in Pinellas county. Right now the forecast track is only 5-6 miles away from the coastline. A slight deviation eastwards could result in landfall. Impacts should be the same regardless.

Exactly, whether it makes landfall in Pinellas county or not the worst of it will still be the same, if anything a few miles offshore parallel to the coast will be a worst case scenario, IMO.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yep. 60 to 70 mph puts alot of us along the beach and a few miles inland out

They tell us not to focus on the exact track, but the east side of that eyewall is going to be where the 70+ MPH winds are. Forward motion to the north seems to be pretty steady and with the well defined pressure profile there doesn't seem to be much chance of it jumping inland south of Tampa bay.

As of right now...it's aiming straight at us in Pinellas. but since there's nothing west of the storm...the slightest deviation to the right would take everything east of here..

Please be prepared for it. A strengthening system is much worse than a weakening one(ETA) even if they are of similar strength(they are not)

[artist]

I missed this
Tornado Warning
FLC043-051-061800-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0005.210706T1723Z-210706T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
123 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Hendry County in southern Florida...
Southwestern Glades County in southern Florida...

* Until 200 PM EDT.

* At 123 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Felda, or 9 miles northeast of Immokalee, moving
northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Labelle, Port La Belle and Keri.

[HurricaneBelle]

Nasty broken line of individual cells at the leading edge of the main rain shield NE of Cape Coral. Counting four of them and the Eastern-most one of them is tornado warned. The sun has been out here so these are going to be enhanced by surface heating.

EDIT: And SPC has just issued a tornado watch from the Tampa Bay area south until 11PM.

[wxman57]

Plane flew by Key West and measured 45-50kt FL wind and about the same at the surface. That's matching the reported gusts in Key west (29 gusting 45 kts), but not the observed sustained winds.

[InfernoFlameCat]

On the visible satellite loop you can actually see the llc rotation speed up a lot. It’s really cool.

[TallyTracker]

With the current structure, achieving more than 75 mph will be difficult. I’m guessing an “uglycane” might not be out of the question.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

60 knot special advisory!

Code: Select all

...RECON FINDS ELSA STRONGER...
1:45 PM EDT Tue Jul 6
Location: 25.4°N 83.0°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

[Michele B]

2:00 advisory will probably bring new watches/warnings.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Up to 70 mph now. Special advisory coming soon, with hurricane warning.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure where NHC is seeing 70 mph wind in the obs. Max FL wind was about 55-60 kts. They do tend to go on the high side to keep the public from ignoring the storm. Guess that's not much different from 55 kts (65 mph).

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa at 70mph
Also a Hurricane warning was issued per the NHC

[ColdMiser123]

75 kt FL wind found well away from the center, keep in mind the plane is flying at ~850 hPa so the surface wind conversion would be lower than normal.

[Aric Dunn]

Those FL winds are not even near the strongest areas .. this is likely a hurricane

[Michele B]

Nasty broken line of individual cells at the leading edge of the main rain shield NE of Cape Coral. Counting four of them and the Eastern-most one of them is tornado warned. The sun has been out here so these are going to be enhanced by surface heating.

EDIT: And SPC has just issued a tornado watch from the Tampa Bay area south until 11PM.

They're showing it now on TWC.

I-4 and south.

[kevin]

I haven't been online much the last 24 hours and I now see that a 70 mph advisory has been issued for the once struggling Elsa. How high do you think the chance is that Elsa strenghtens to cat 1 strength before landfall?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm not sure where NHC is seeing 70 mph wind in the obs. Max FL wind was about 55-60 kts. They do tend to go on the high side to keep the public from ignoring the storm. Guess that's not much different from 55 kts (65 mph).

Max flight level winds:

Code: Select all

75 knots
(~ 86.3 mph)