ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I'm not sure where NHC is seeing 70 mph wind in the obs. Max FL wind was about 55-60 kts. They do tend to go on the high side to keep the public from ignoring the storm. Guess that's not much different from 55 kts (65 mph).

66 knots at flight unflagged
75 knots at flight but flagged for some reason

[eastcoastFL]

Tropical Storm Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...RECON FINDS ELSA STRONGER...

Recent Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that the Elsa has strengthened and maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. A special
advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the intermediate
advisory to reflect this change and to issue a hurricane warning for
a portion of the west coast of Florida.


SUMMARY OF 145 PM EDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[Sciencerocks]

I think it could become a hurricane for Florida.

[wxman57]

I think it's pretty clear that those winds aloft aren't making it to the surface. Coastal obs not far away are only 20 kts. Naples reporting SE at 5 kts.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I haven't been online much the last 24 hours and I now see that a 70 mph advisory has been issued for the once struggling Elsa. How high do you think the chance is that Elsa strenghtens to cat 1 strength before landfall?

I’d say 70% chance the Nhc upgrades it at 5.

[artist]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
141 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

FLC043-051-061800-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210706T1800Z/
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
141 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN HENDRY AND SOUTHWESTERN GLADES COUNTIES...

At 141 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Felda, or 8 miles south of Labelle, moving northwest
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Labelle, Port La Belle and Keri.

[ColdMiser123]

I'm not sure where NHC is seeing 70 mph wind in the obs. Max FL wind was about 55-60 kts. They do tend to go on the high side to keep the public from ignoring the storm. Guess that's not much different from 55 kts (65 mph).

66 knots at flight unflagged
75 knots at flight but flagged for some reason

The 03 indicates the SFMR was flagged, the FL wind was not flagged. 02 would indicate the FL wind was flagged.

[DestinHurricane]

I haven't been online much the last 24 hours and I now see that a 70 mph advisory has been issued for the once struggling Elsa. How high do you think the chance is that Elsa strenghtens to cat 1 strength before landfall?

I’d say 70% chance the Nhc upgrades it at 5.

If they upgrade it it will likely be a special update they wont wait til 5

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IIRC, most models were predicting a ramp up in intensity around this time, followed by some weakening due to dry air intrusion. I wouldn't be surprised if Elsa became a hurricane again, but would also not be surprised if we start seeing Elsa become more disorganized due to try air intrusion.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1412446865275166723

[Cat5James]

Majority of the peninsula now under a tornado watch (including SE FL)

[wxman57]

Easy to find the center now. 25.2N / 83.1W

[ScottNAtlanta]

If the shear lets up...even a little, this is going to be a hurricane. The shear is the main limiting factor.

[HurricaneBelle]

I think it's pretty clear that those winds aloft aren't making it to the surface. Coastal obs not far away are only 20 kts. Naples reporting SE at 5 kts.

Hoping your downplaying of the storm is right. The good news is that if you're wrong I won't have power to come on here and tell you so.

[sikkar]

Speeding a vis loop, looks like center took a slight western jog??

[wxman57]

If the shear lets up...even a little, this is going to be a hurricane. The shear is the main limiting factor.

Its best shot at strengthening is in the next 6-8 hrs. Shear will increase after then. It's battling a good bit of shear now, which is why the center is exposed SW of the squalls.

[psyclone]

Naked swirl watch

[wxman57]

Speeding a vis loop, looks like center took a slight western jog??

Center cloud area is expanding, giving an appearance of movement. Looks due north, to me.

[StormingB81]

Majority of the peninsula now under a tornado watch (including SE FL)

It goes around me in Brevard…

[sikkar]

Speeding a vis loop, looks like center took a slight western jog??

Center cloud area is expanding, giving an appearance of movement. Looks due north, to me.

I see, thanks for clarifying.

[Vdogg]

I haven't been online much the last 24 hours and I now see that a 70 mph advisory has been issued for the once struggling Elsa. How high do you think the chance is that Elsa strenghtens to cat 1 strength before landfall?

Should be Cat 1 within the hour if not already. They're still sampling the storm.