ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Pressure holding steady since last pass, moved almost due north.

182430 2520N 08300W 8428 01511 9998 +232 +075 263022 023 036 001 03

[HurricaneBelle]

How extensive have warnings & preparations been in Florida? Perhaps someone from the region could weigh in. I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

In our area it’s odd the tropical storm warning ends at 7 pm, when closest pass is after midnight. Hurricane watches are up, but not warnings
We prepared for a cat 1

Not true we have been under a Hurricane Warning since 2PM for Pinellas county northward

[NDG]

I should had said, it moved due north since the last pass.

[StormPyrate]

How extensive have warnings & preparations been in Florida? Perhaps someone from the region could weigh in. I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

In our area it’s odd the tropical storm warning ends at 7 pm, when closest pass is after midnight. Hurricane watches are up, but not warnings
We prepared for a cat 1

Not true we have been under a Hurricane Warning since 2PM for Pinellas county northward

Um maybe but the question was how much of it is known. Literally just got the hurricane warning on my phone 3 minutes ago. So for people who actually live here and are not monitoring they found out at about 235, if they had their phone with them

[eastcoastFL]

How extensive have warnings & preparations been in Florida? Perhaps someone from the region could weigh in. I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

Daily it has been reported on.

It’s been all Surfside and Elsa on the news the past week. Everyone should be well aware.

[wxhorse]

How extensive have warnings & preparations been in Florida? Perhaps someone from the region could weigh in. I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

In our area it’s odd the tropical storm warning ends at 7 pm, when closest pass is after midnight. Hurricane watches are up, but not warnings
We prepared for a cat 1

Not true we have been under a Hurricane Warning since 2PM for Pinellas county northward

I’m surprised Jacksonville hasn't updated their local products. Tallahassee posted an update just after 2 pm.

[bluespiderfl]

Lesson from Elsa… this year is going to be interesting and possibly unpredictable. With her ramping up to Cat 1 between Cuba and Fl just goes to show how warm the waters already are and how ripe they are.

Hope the best for everyone and that everyone stays on their toes!

[fllawyer]

How extensive have warnings & preparations been in Florida? Perhaps someone from the region could weigh in. I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

Long time lurker...but this was not a good sign:

https://www.mysuncoast.com/2021/07/05/sarasota-county-emergency-management-expects-elsa-weaken-not-opening-evacuation-shelters/

[Mouton]

I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

I am one of them and am now scrambling a tad to get the shutters on the east side of house out.

[StormPyrate]

And locally they just changed the TS warning and Hurricane warning to expire at 10:45 instead of 7

[Cat5James]

Looks like Elsa is slowing down a bit

[jdray]

In our area it’s odd the tropical storm warning ends at 7 pm, when closest pass is after midnight. Hurricane watches are up, but not warnings
We prepared for a cat 1

Not true we have been under a Hurricane Warning since 2PM for Pinellas county northward

I’m surprised Jacksonville hasn't updated their local products. Tallahassee posted an update just after 2 pm.

We are under TS Watches right now (warnings just a bit west of us). The last AFD was released at 2:22PM EST, so they might be holding off anything more until the 5PM NHC update.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

My main concern is the amount of rain and flooding. (see the BOLD highlights)

000
FXUS62 KJAX 061822
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
222 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms banding through from
out of the south, leading to lowered ceilings and potential for
storms passing through Duval County sites this afternoon. Bands of
activity extending off of Elsa will continue to trek through the
region into Wednesday morning. TC Elsa will affect GNV first as it
moves in from out of the SW early tomorrow morning and then
impacting the remaining sites later in the morning and in the early
afternoon. Will continue to monitor Elsa as it approaches,
adjusting forecasted wind speeds as it draws nearer.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [904 AM EDT]...



.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Night...

Tropical Storm Elsa was tracking northward toward the western FL
Keys early this morning, and will continue a northward track near
the FL peninsula west coast through this evening. Low level
troughs on the outer ENE fringes of Elsa will begin to rotate WNW
from south FL through today, with a surge in tropical moisture and
strengthening low level wind fields into the afternoon and
evening with a stronger lobe of PVA aloft rotating around Elsa`s
mid level circulation from central FL. These convective
ingredients combined diurnal heating will fuel numerous showers
and storms across NE FL into this afternoon and evening, with
rainfall potential extending northward across SE GA into the
evening. WPC maintains a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across
our area today which indicates an increased potential for
localized flooding rainfall especially across NE FL. In addition
the flood potential today, gusty winds of 40-50 mph as well as a
low tornado potential will also exist in stronger convection from
Gainesville to Marineland southward where 0-3 km SRH nears 200
m2/s2 through 02z. Given the increase in convective coverage this
afternoon, use this morning to finalize storm preparations for
Elsa.

Elsa approaches the FL Big Bend through sunrise Wednesday, with
impacts overspread the local area from south to north tonight.
Persistent rain with gusty squalls of heavy rainfall overspread
our Suwannee River Valley zones from the south through midnight,
and then the remainder of NE FL through sunrise Wed, progressing
northward across SE GA through Wed evening as Elsa begins to track
more NNE. The hazards and potential impacts from Elsa are
highlighted below:

1. Flooding Rainfall: This is the great widespread threat to the
local area today through Wed evening as tropical moisture
overspreads the area today ahead of Elsa, and then heavy rainfall
impacts the area late tonight through Wed evening as Elsa tracks
across the local area. Most of NE FL and inland SE GA has received
200-400% of normal rainfall over the past two weeks, and with an
additional rainfall forecast of 2-4 inches over the next 36 hrs
with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible, a Flood Watch has
been issued through Wed night.

2. Tropical Storm Force Winds: The best potential for sustained
tropical storm winds continues to focus across portions of the
Suwannee River Valley including Marion, Gilchrist and Alachua
counties. Periods of sustained tropical storm force winds will
overspread these areas after midnight tonight as bands of strong
gusty squalls increase through early Wednesday morning. Another
area of potential TS force winds will focus over the SE GA coast
through Wed as Elsa`s circulation tracks NNE, just inland of the
Golden Isles. Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued for portions
of inland NE FL later this morning. For all areas, even outside of
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, it would be prudent to
secure outdoor objects as squalls of gusty winds will move across
the area late tonight through Wednesday evening.

3. Beach Hazards: Rip current activity will increase along the
local coastline later today, with a Moderate Rip Current risk
highlighted. By Wednesday, there will be a High Rip Current risk
and dangerous, rough surf with breakers near 7-8 ft possible at
times. Beach-goers should no venture in the surf Wednesday.

4. Isolated Tornadoes/Waterspouts: Low level shear will increase
from the south late this afternoon and into the evening across our
southern FL zones as well as along the adjacent Atlantic coast,
expanding northward across the remainder of NE FL and coastal SE
GA through daybreak Wed. The threat for isolated tornadoes will
focus across our eastern GA zones into Wed evening, with a
decreasing threat of tornadoes across NE FL. Check that your NOAA
Weather Radios are in good working order today in case Tornado
Warnings are issued for your area tonight through Wednesday.

5. Storm surge: Little threat to no threat. Total inundation
values along the Atlantic coast and portions of the St. Johns
River could near 1-1.5 ft above normally dry ground (datum MHHW).

[CFLHurricane]

Looks like Elsa is slowing down a bit

Well that’s great to read seeing as I’m waiting to board one of the last flights into town before the weather degrades too much. Hopefully it’s not as rocky as the flight through the outer bands of hurricane Sandy where even the flight attendants were shook by the turbulence.

[eastcoastFL]

Track moved slightly back west

[dizzyfish]

Good afternoon all. I have a serious question that I can't seem to find an answer for. I see the warning map and read the statement that says "hurricane warning for COASTAL Pasco, Hernando, Citrus.....etc" (I highlighted the word coastal for emphasis).

In this case, how far inland is considered coastal? We are approximately 3 miles inland as the crow flies in Pasco County.

[drewschmaltz]

Always funny to read how we anthropomorphize storms. She has no desire, no fight, no human characteristics. She is entirely a product of her environment. She is, in fact, the environment.

I've seen how land interaction can help tighten a storm. By brushing the Florida coast for a while at a shallow angle, I wonder if it will further tighten Elsa giving an appearance of not wanting to make landfall. And, in that time, potentially continue to intensify further?

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1412482952001425408

[hiflyer]

Majority of the peninsula now under a tornado watch (including SE FL)

It goes around me in Brevard…

Yeah, I have no idea why we are under a Tornado Watch in North Broward... its a gorgeous breezy day outside. I even have the windows open to let it flow through.

1445 Under a feeder band here in Weston...rain sideways! little thunder.

[gatorcane]

When the Euro suddenly showed a hurricane in the EGOM in yesterday’s short-term forecast that was no bueno. The model rarely misses in that range.

[cycloneye]

TXNT28 KNES 061732
TCSNTL

A. 05L (ELSA)

B. 06/1730Z

C. 25.3N

D. 83.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS LESS THAN 1/2 DEGREE WEST OF A LARGE COLD OVERCAST
RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK