ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxhorse]

Not true we have been under a Hurricane Warning since 2PM for Pinellas county northward

I’m surprised Jacksonville hasn't updated their local products. Tallahassee posted an update just after 2 pm.

We are under TS Watches right now (warnings just a bit west of us). The last AFD was released at 2:22PM EST, so they might be holding off anything more until the 5PM NHC update.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

My main concern is the amount of rain and flooding. (see the BOLD highlights)

000
FXUS62 KJAX 061822
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
222 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms banding through from
out of the south, leading to lowered ceilings and potential for
storms passing through Duval County sites this afternoon. Bands of
activity extending off of Elsa will continue to trek through the
region into Wednesday morning. TC Elsa will affect GNV first as it
moves in from out of the SW early tomorrow morning and then
impacting the remaining sites later in the morning and in the early
afternoon. Will continue to monitor Elsa as it approaches,
adjusting forecasted wind speeds as it draws nearer.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [904 AM EDT]...



.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Night...

Tropical Storm Elsa was tracking northward toward the western FL
Keys early this morning, and will continue a northward track near
the FL peninsula west coast through this evening. Low level
troughs on the outer ENE fringes of Elsa will begin to rotate WNW
from south FL through today, with a surge in tropical moisture and
strengthening low level wind fields into the afternoon and
evening with a stronger lobe of PVA aloft rotating around Elsa`s
mid level circulation from central FL. These convective
ingredients combined diurnal heating will fuel numerous showers
and storms across NE FL into this afternoon and evening, with
rainfall potential extending northward across SE GA into the
evening. WPC maintains a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across
our area today which indicates an increased potential for
localized flooding rainfall especially across NE FL. In addition
the flood potential today, gusty winds of 40-50 mph as well as a
low tornado potential will also exist in stronger convection from
Gainesville to Marineland southward where 0-3 km SRH nears 200
m2/s2 through 02z. Given the increase in convective coverage this
afternoon, use this morning to finalize storm preparations for
Elsa.

Elsa approaches the FL Big Bend through sunrise Wednesday, with
impacts overspread the local area from south to north tonight.
Persistent rain with gusty squalls of heavy rainfall overspread
our Suwannee River Valley zones from the south through midnight,
and then the remainder of NE FL through sunrise Wed, progressing
northward across SE GA through Wed evening as Elsa begins to track
more NNE. The hazards and potential impacts from Elsa are
highlighted below:

1. Flooding Rainfall: This is the great widespread threat to the
local area today through Wed evening as tropical moisture
overspreads the area today ahead of Elsa, and then heavy rainfall
impacts the area late tonight through Wed evening as Elsa tracks
across the local area. Most of NE FL and inland SE GA has received
200-400% of normal rainfall over the past two weeks, and with an
additional rainfall forecast of 2-4 inches over the next 36 hrs
with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible, a Flood Watch has
been issued through Wed night.

2. Tropical Storm Force Winds: The best potential for sustained
tropical storm winds continues to focus across portions of the
Suwannee River Valley including Marion, Gilchrist and Alachua
counties. Periods of sustained tropical storm force winds will
overspread these areas after midnight tonight as bands of strong
gusty squalls increase through early Wednesday morning. Another
area of potential TS force winds will focus over the SE GA coast
through Wed as Elsa`s circulation tracks NNE, just inland of the
Golden Isles. Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued for portions
of inland NE FL later this morning. For all areas, even outside of
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, it would be prudent to
secure outdoor objects as squalls of gusty winds will move across
the area late tonight through Wednesday evening.

3. Beach Hazards: Rip current activity will increase along the
local coastline later today, with a Moderate Rip Current risk
highlighted. By Wednesday, there will be a High Rip Current risk
and dangerous, rough surf with breakers near 7-8 ft possible at
times. Beach-goers should no venture in the surf Wednesday.

4. Isolated Tornadoes/Waterspouts: Low level shear will increase
from the south late this afternoon and into the evening across our
southern FL zones as well as along the adjacent Atlantic coast,
expanding northward across the remainder of NE FL and coastal SE
GA through daybreak Wed. The threat for isolated tornadoes will
focus across our eastern GA zones into Wed evening, with a
decreasing threat of tornadoes across NE FL. Check that your NOAA
Weather Radios are in good working order today in case Tornado
Warnings are issued for your area tonight through Wednesday.

5. Storm surge: Little threat to no threat. Total inundation
values along the Atlantic coast and portions of the St. Johns
River could near 1-1.5 ft above normally dry ground (datum MHHW).

Thanks! I saw this. We are in the tropical storm warning area to the west. Already hauling things in and preparing for power outages.

Agree about the rain though, it's been nonstop. I'm also a bit concerned about potential tornados.

[artist]

How extensive have warnings & preparations been in Florida? Perhaps someone from the region could weigh in. I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

Long time lurker...but this was not a good sign:

https://www.mysuncoast.com/2021/07/05/sarasota-county-emergency-management-expects-elsa-weaken-not-opening-evacuation-shelters/

Pinellas county opened shelters, so did Manatee county.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

When the Euro suddenly showed a hurricane in the EGOM in yesterday’s short-term forecast that was no bueno. The model rarely misses in that range.

Yeah, no model has done a good job at all with Elsa.

[Sailingtime]

How extensive have warnings & preparations been in Florida? Perhaps someone from the region could weigh in. I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

Daily it has been reported on.

Warnings and prep work have been more than adaquate. Floridians tend to watch the tropics and pay attention. It doesn't surprise most of us one bit. Even if it's 'just' a tropical storm, Floridians know all too well the damage and grief even that can do so yes most are aware.

[BobHarlem]

Mark Sudduth is roaming around Ana Maria island right now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctzFhPb5FTI

[artist]

How extensive have warnings & preparations been in Florida? Perhaps someone from the region could weigh in. I'm a bit afraid that people might be surprised by this one since until recently the consensus was that it would be a TS or even barely a tropical system at landfall and now we might have a strengthening cat 1 on our hands.

Daily it has been reported on.

Warnings and prep work have been more than adaquate. Floridians tend to watch the tropics and pay attention. It doesn't surprise most of us one bit. Even if it's 'just' a tropical storm, Floridians know all too well the damage and grief even that can do so yes most are aware.

Exactly, and the twice daily news conferences have even had fl fema speak of their preps.

[wxman57]

Setup seems similar to Zeta last year. Very strong wind aloft, but surface sustained wind much lower. In Zeta's case, the wind gusts were twice the sustained wind, which is certainly unusual. High winds aloft combined with wind shear may allow Elsa to occasionally bring those winds down to the surface in gusts, though I doubt coastal locations will see any hurricane-force winds. Winds from Naples to north of Ft. Myers are still only about 10 kts. Best chance for some gusts to hurricane strength will be on the coast west of Tampa overnight.

[artist]

Good afternoon all. I have a serious question that I can't seem to find an answer for. I see the warning map and read the statement that says "hurricane warning for COASTAL Pasco, Hernando, Citrus.....etc" (I highlighted the word coastal for emphasis).

In this case, how far inland is considered coastal? We are approximately 3 miles inland as the crow flies in Pasco County.

Don’t know if this helps or not

[AlphaToOmega]

[chaser1]

I got to ask this again, What are the chances of Elsa rapidly intensifying during its approach

<.0000000000001

The odds are low (but not quite THAT low). Elsa has a very small core. Such storms are subject to to rapid fluctuations. It's a good question but the problem is what do YOU define as rapid intensification? An unexpected 30% increase in intensity from 70mph to 90 mph within 6 hours WOULD BE a rapid increase in strength. For instance, a small core system
could prematurely turn NNE temporarily negating effects of upper level shear and better allowing the LLC to become better vertically aligned and hasten quicker pressure falls. Of course, that window of opportunity would be limited to time over water. There is obviously very little difference between a strong TS and a 75 mph hurricane but stronger yet could suggest greater organization, broader area of impact, and an increased danger to those in weak structures or exposed to flying debris. Does this risk possibly exist with Elsa? Yes, but a number of factors would have to perfectly align. I don't see those odds being any higher then about 10% max.

[eastcoastFL]

That’s one odd looking LLC

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.ph ... =undefined

[AtlanticWind]

Heavy rain here in Plantation (west of Ft . Lauderdale) not much wind

[artist]

Pretty windy in Surfside right now
https://video.nest.com/live/sMrzTKjVeJ

[alienstorm]

It has a vigorous LLC, if it wasn't for shear we would have a 100 MPH hurricane.

[Kohlecane]

Good afternoon all. I have a serious question that I can't seem to find an answer for. I see the warning map and read the statement that says "hurricane warning for COASTAL Pasco, Hernando, Citrus.....etc" (I highlighted the word coastal for emphasis).

In this case, how far inland is considered coastal? We are approximately 3 miles inland as the crow flies in Pasco County.

Having lived in Spring Hill Coastal was always brought about W. of US19

[SconnieCane]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1412482952001425408

By the same token, it had a much more impressive satellite presentation when passing Haiti with ice-cold convection exploding everywhere, what appeared to be decent upper-level outflow, and Dvorak suggested a solid Cat. 1, the actual intensity as measured by recon was much lower. It works both ways!

[InfernoFlameCat]

I got to ask this again, What are the chances of Elsa rapidly intensifying during its approach

<.0000000000001

The odds are low (but not quite THAT low). Elsa has a very small core. Such storms are subject to to rapid fluctuations. It's a good question but the problem is what do YOU define as rapid intensification? An unexpected 30% increase in intensity from 70mph to 90 mph within 6 hours WOULD BE a rapid increase in strength. For instance, a small core system
could prematurely turn NNE temporarily negating effects of upper level shear and better allowing the LLC to become better vertically aligned and hasten quicker pressure falls. Of course, that window of opportunity would be limited to time over water. There is obviously very little difference between a strong TS and a 75 mph hurricane but stronger yet could suggest greater organization, broader area of impact, and an increased danger to those in weak structures or exposed to flying debris. Does this risk possibly exist with Elsa? Yes, but a number of factors would have to perfectly align. I don't see those odds being any higher then about 10% max.

Seeing a 30knot increase within a span of 24 hours. Also chance of Hurricane Elsa RI is <.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001

[TampaCE]

Good afternoon all. I have a serious question that I can't seem to find an answer for. I see the warning map and read the statement that says "hurricane warning for COASTAL Pasco, Hernando, Citrus.....etc" (I highlighted the word coastal for emphasis).

In this case, how far inland is considered coastal? We are approximately 3 miles inland as the crow flies in Pasco County.

I have always thought US 19 was the delineation between coastal and inland.

[StormPyrate]

Good afternoon all. I have a serious question that I can't seem to find an answer for. I see the warning map and read the statement that says "hurricane warning for COASTAL Pasco, Hernando, Citrus.....etc" (I highlighted the word coastal for emphasis).

In this case, how far inland is considered coastal? We are approximately 3 miles inland as the crow flies in Pasco County.

I have always thought US 19 was the delineation between coastal and inland.

Interesting, just a block east of 19. Our evacuation zone is 20+ feet of surge. I think there is one zone higher.

[robbielyn]

well i’m getting wind gusts and pouring rain here in hernando county