ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Good afternoon all. I have a serious question that I can't seem to find an answer for. I see the warning map and read the statement that says "hurricane warning for COASTAL Pasco, Hernando, Citrus.....etc" (I highlighted the word coastal for emphasis).

In this case, how far inland is considered coastal? We are approximately 3 miles inland as the crow flies in Pasco County.

I have always thought US 19 was the delineation between coastal and inland.

Your answer is on the nws tampa page right now. the surge warning is what they define as "coastal"...It always includes all of pinellas and the other county regions within about 10 miles or so of the coast.

[tolakram]

Speed this loop up. That LLC was stretched, or relocating.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[cheezyWXguy]

There is a legitimate eye trying to carve out on radar right now. The dead spot on velocity is matching up with the area of weak returns on reflectivity. It’s development also coincides with an increase in velocities depicted in the innermost parts of the wind field

[tolakram]

SLIDER closeup
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=952&y=1162&z=3&angle=0&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=80&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa saw her LLc trying to run away again and snatched it, reeled it back in, and put it in circle(put in line hurricane pun)

[caneman]

Speed this loop up. That LLC was stretched, or relocating.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Tucking up under there. Thats not good

[artist]

Mark Sudduth live
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctzFhPb5FTI

[GrovesNest]

Long time lurker, first time poster. Just got a nice little band in downtown St. Pete. Rain came down heavy, winds gusted to 20mph. In and out in 10 minutes. Only the beginning, we're strapped in for a bumpy night.

Regarding preps, feels like many in my area are ready? Or maybe it's a mix of complacency and poor timing? Just got back from Publix, no panic at all. Water and batteries are plentiful, people are cheery and optimistic. Feels like night and day from my old home in Miami, where you'd typically witness arguments in line waiting to check out prior to a storm.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm a little surprised a borderline hurricane about to bring significant impacts to Tampa has only had one recon in the past six hours or so, and said recon only had two center passes before leaving.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like Elsa's almost a hurricane again... Yikes. Hopefully everyone is fully prepared...

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is strengthening on radar. Convection has wrapped around the center. I think we have a hurricane.

[Sanibel]

FYI: On the weaker side of tropical events wind and rain-wise here...Hardly anything worth reporting...I guess it will pick up though...

[Iceresistance]

Yikes! She is trying to make sure that it’s a hurricane landfall

70 mph
1000 MB
Moving North at 9 mph

[psyclone]

Long time lurker, first time poster. Just got a nice little band in downtown St. Pete. Rain came down heavy, winds gusted to 20mph. In and out in 10 minutes. Only the beginning, we're strapped in for a bumpy night.

Regarding preps, feels like many in my area are ready? Or maybe it's a mix of complacency and poor timing? Just got back from Publix, no panic at all. Water and batteries are plentiful, people are cheery and optimistic. Feels like night and day from my old home in Miami, where you'd typically witness arguments in line waiting to check out prior to a storm.

too many false alarms here. Nobody seems remotely worried. I must confess to being one of them

[Michele B]

Now that it's this close, watching it creep up the coast is like watching paint dry!

It's more fun when they're way out to sea. You can go do stuff, shopping/cooking/whatever, and then come back and see progress. But when it's this close to home, you feel like you can't take your eyes off them, and it's truly like watching grass grow or something else similar.

[kevin]

She may not be pretty, but considering that Elsa was already near hurricane strength with a worse presentation I think she might be a hurricane now or if not it'll only be a matter of time. Is there another recon mission planned soon?

[presidentofyes12]

Elsa is strengthening on radar. Convection has wrapped around the center. I think we have a hurricane.

I agree, it's been improving it's organization, and has been appearing better and better for a while now.

[ColdMiser123]

The Key West radar is now detecting the maximum radial velocities at around ~10-11k feet, which is very close to 700 mb. Just took a 4 bin average near some of the strongest velocity bins, and got 88 mph. That translates to 76.47 kt, which using the standard 700 mb surface conversion is 69.5 kt. However, there is also the undersampling factor that is already built into the FL to surface wind conversion that shouldn't be there with radial velocity bins. So the conversion factor will be slightly lower using radial velocity bins.

That factor is about 1.08, so dividing 69.5 kt by 1.08 gets you 64.3 kt. NHC is unlikely to upgrade this based on radial velocity alone, but there is now real-time evidence that this has once again attained hurricane strength.

[fllawyer]

I am in the Tampa area and think people here are as prepared as can be.

My biggest concern is additional rainfall and surge based on what has been a significant amount of rain that has fallen in the last week or so. My gauge showed nearly 6 inches this past Saturday alone, and there is still a good amount of standing water in many areas. The slight slow down in forward speed may have helped, as there was a significant high tide today around mid day. There is a very low tide this evening at 9pm and then a lesser high tide at 430am which seems to coincide with an expected landfall.

[AtlanticWind]

I'm a little surprised a borderline hurricane about to bring significant impacts to Tampa has only had one recon in the past six hours or so, and said recon only had two center passes before leaving.

It seems like recon hasnt been staying as long in this storm on each visit... maybe Im wrong