ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4061 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:11 pm

Michele B wrote:Now that it's this close, watching it creep up the coast is like watching paint dry!

It's more fun when they're way out to sea. You can go do stuff, shopping/cooking/whatever, and then come back and see progress. But when it's this close to home, you feel like you can't take your eyes off them, and it's truly like watching grass grow or something else similar.

Really, because I love looking at it frame by frame and the radar. Each Tc, besides Barry it hurt my eyes is a pleasure to watch make landfall, even Danny was cool. However I have watched Vines grow so maybe I am not one to talk. (Vines are cool)
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4062 Postby caneman » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:12 pm

fllawyer wrote:I am in the Tampa area and think people here are as prepared as can be.

My biggest concern is additional rainfall and surge based on what has been a significant amount of rain that has fallen in the last week or so. My gauge showed nearly 6 inches this past Saturday alone, and there is still a good amount of standing water in many areas. The slight slow down in forward speed may have helped, as there was a significant high tide today around mid day. There is a very low tide this evening at 9pm and then a lesser high tide at 430am which seems to coincide with an expected landfall.


We will likely also have downed trees as our grounds are already saturated
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4063 Postby Michele B » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:14 pm

Can somebody please point out where the CoC is?

With all the cloud cover, I can't figure out llc from mlc.

TY
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4064 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:15 pm

Michele B wrote:Can somebody please point out where the CoC is?

With all the cloud cover, I can't figure out llc from mlc.

TY

Wxman57 should be able to do a red arrow. They are on point.
Also where the eastern most convection is, that is where the center should be.
Last edited by InfernoFlameCat on Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4065 Postby drewschmaltz » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:15 pm

tolakram wrote:Speed this loop up. That LLC was stretched, or relocating.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined


At the same time the CDO expanded quickly west last few frames. More strengthening to come IMO.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4066 Postby Michele B » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:15 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Michele B wrote:Now that it's this close, watching it creep up the coast is like watching paint dry!

It's more fun when they're way out to sea. You can go do stuff, shopping/cooking/whatever, and then come back and see progress. But when it's this close to home, you feel like you can't take your eyes off them, and it's truly like watching grass grow or something else similar.

Really, because I love looking at it frame by frame and the radar. Each Tc, besides Barry it hurt my eyes is a pleasure to watch make landfall, even Danny was cool. However I have watched Vines grow so maybe I am not one to talk. (Vines are cool)


Hmmm, maybe it's the fact that it just might be coming right over my house, and I'd rather not have to watch that in real time!

I DO enjoy watching it "frame by frame," but today it's driving me crazy!

Again, maybe has something to do with the close proximity to my location.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4067 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:17 pm

Clearing near the center of circulation alongside an increase in lightning with the western eyewall:

Image
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: changed imgur to IMG
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4068 Postby psyclone » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:18 pm

There's been a recent uptick in lightning on the western side of the "eyewall"...looks like a formative microcane with the center surrounded by convection
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4069 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:19 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:The Key West radar is now detecting the maximum radial velocities at around ~10-11k feet, which is very close to 700 mb. Just took a 4 bin average near some of the strongest velocity bins, and got 88 mph. That translates to 76.47 kt, which using the standard 700 mb surface conversion is 69.5 kt. However, there is also the undersampling factor that is already built into the FL to surface wind conversion that shouldn't be there with radial velocity bins. So the conversion factor will be slightly lower using radial velocity bins.

That factor is about 1.08, so dividing 69.5 kt by 1.08 gets you 64.3 kt. NHC is unlikely to upgrade this based on radial velocity alone, but there is now real-time evidence that this has once again attained hurricane strength.

Is this going to be part of my geoscience degree :/
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4070 Postby birdwomn » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:20 pm

GrovesNest wrote:Regarding preps, feels like many in my area are ready? Or maybe it's a mix of complacency and poor timing? Just got back from Publix, no panic at all. Water and batteries are plentiful, people are cheery and optimistic. Feels like night and day from my old home in Miami, where you'd typically witness arguments in line waiting to check out prior to a storm.


Maybe we all learned our lesson after the toilet paper rush last Spring? :lol:
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4071 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:20 pm

I’m going to revise me 0.000ect chance of RI and make it a 10% chance IMO with this fully wrapped system.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4072 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:20 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:The Key West radar is now detecting the maximum radial velocities at around ~10-11k feet, which is very close to 700 mb. Just took a 4 bin average near some of the strongest velocity bins, and got 88 mph. That translates to 76.47 kt, which using the standard 700 mb surface conversion is 69.5 kt. However, there is also the undersampling factor that is already built into the FL to surface wind conversion that shouldn't be there with radial velocity bins. So the conversion factor will be slightly lower using radial velocity bins.

That factor is about 1.08, so dividing 69.5 kt by 1.08 gets you 64.3 kt. NHC is unlikely to upgrade this based on radial velocity alone, but there is now real-time evidence that this has once again attained hurricane strength.

Is this going to be part of my geoscience degree :/


I can promise you much worse awaits you than conversion calculations.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4073 Postby sikkar » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:22 pm

The whole envelope is mushrooming, hmm.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4074 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:24 pm

Expect it to become a cane soon!
Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4075 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:24 pm

Has shear taken a break like “bye have a great time”?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4076 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:25 pm

She looks like a hurricane now to me!
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4077 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:25 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Expect it to become a cane soon!
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8250/1P52Ol.gif


Looking pretty good now. Actually looks like a storm intensifying in the gulf.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4078 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:25 pm

Given what I have seen on the models, I think Tropical Storm Elsa has a realistic shot at becoming a major hurricane. The operational Euro has a 999 mb hurricane at landfall. Models seem to show Tropical Storm Elsa moving west of what the NHC forecasts. Should this play out, Tropical Storm Elsa would be less affected by land for a longer amount of time, giving it the chance to intensify into a powerful hurricane. It could become a major hurricane. Additionally, if this plays out, South Florida might dodge another bullet.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4079 Postby jconsor » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:25 pm

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4080 Postby jasons2k » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:25 pm

Can’t check much today but Elsa appears to be wrapping-up tightly. Will probably get tugged a bit east of the current forecast.
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