ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

I am in agreement with wxman57 that this is unlikely to become a hurricane again. I think it may have been one earlier briefly just before recon got there but its not anymore. No longer vertically stacked as well. Shear is just too much to intensify anymore.

What storm are you looking at? llc is completely tucked under the convection now (which is deepening). No way this is not a hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

And now we have an eye on radar... the LLC is under it. but slightly to the west ( which is at times giving the structure some weird features). but not far. close enough to continue the pushing up the MLC and creating and eye..

shear has relaxed just enough to be in this weird steady state.. and it has created itself and happy little moisture pouch.

[HurricaneBelle]

Eye see you

[NDG]

[pgoss11]

https://i.imgur.com/BXMR6zn.gif

Strengthening

[InfernoFlameCat]

I am in agreement with wxman57 that this is unlikely to become a hurricane again. I think it may have been one earlier briefly just before recon got there but its not anymore. No longer vertically stacked as well. Shear is just too much to intensify anymore.

She has an eye on radar. The eye is becoming more centralized in the convection as well. A buoy just recorded 67mph sustained near the core. This is a hurricane, the nhc is just being conservative. Cloud tops are explosive. Shear has abated.

[rigbyrigz]

6-10 hours away and the slowed-down path is still far from precise, and it will matter here.

I know i may get my head bit off, but this is a discussion forum, and I really think the NHC kinda blew it (pun intended) by not putting up the "H" and stuff in last night's 11PM releases.

Folks here are kinda complacent, and without that H and watch and warning in their face, didn't get as revved up as they maybe should have (from personal anecdotal experience locally here.)

You look at the 48 hours guidance and such for watches and warnings, and to put this H up 6-8 hours before a very possible landfall is not an A+ public service, IMHO. Many of the folks here and Twitter were very helpful of course (keepin us on our toes), and thanks to all.

(P.S> Yeah not MUCH difference between 70 and 75 except what you call it wakes folks up that may need to be woke.)

[tolakram]

6 hours away and the slowed-down path is still far from precise, and it will matter here.

I know i may get my head bit off, but this is a discussion forum, and I really think the NHC kinda blew it (pun intended) by not putting up the "H" and stuff in last night's 11PM releases.

Folks here are kinda complacent, and without that H and watch and warning in their face, didn't get as revved up as they maybe should have (from personal anecdotal experience locally here.)

You look at the 48 hours guidance and such for watches and warnings, and to put this H up 6-8 hours before a very possible landfall is not an A+ public service, IMHO. Many of the folks here and Twitter were very helpful of course (keepin us on our toes), and thanks to all.

And if they put an H in the forecast and it never strengthened they would have blown it as well. You get your head bit off for comments like that because you should know better. Every storm we either get half the posters complaining the NHC exaggerated a storm or the other half saying they under forecast the storm. Give it a rest, for crying out loud.

[cheezyWXguy]

And now we have an eye on radar... the LLC is under it. but slightly to the west ( which is at times giving the structure some weird features). but not far. close enough to continue the pushing up the MLC and creating and eye..

shear has relaxed just enough to be in this weird steady state.. and it has created itself and happy little moisture pouch.

100% agree. Radar appearance is right in line with what I’ve seen in past storms struggling to stay stacked (Sally during its first strengthening phase comes to mind). Definitely way closer than it was this morning, but the shear is still having an impact

[chaser1]

Seeing a 30knot increase within a span of 24 hours. Also chance of Hurricane Elsa RI is <.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001

Dude, work on your math skillz
70 mph X 30% (21 mph) increase wind speed = approx 91 mph
90 mph
- 70 mph
----------------
= 20 mph (= 17 knots)

17 knot increase (NOT a 30 knot increase) in wind speed is quite unlikely but not unreasonable for a very small core system under proper conditions.

I though the standard thing for RI is 30knot increase. No conversion.

That is correct. That is why I responded to the original post ".....It's a good question but the problem is what do YOU define as rapid intensification?"

Ya gotta understand that while many of us are "weather geeks" (me included LOL), many others come here for advice or out of fear because of their own specific set of circumstances. So I responded from the perspective that maybe they lived in a mobile home not far from the coast. A 20mph increase in wind could result in an increased risk to some.

From a meteorological prospective however you are correct, a 30 knot increase within a 24 hr. period would equate to RI.

[rigbyrigz]

6 hours away and the slowed-down path is still far from precise, and it will matter here.

I know i may get my head bit off, but this is a discussion forum, and I really think the NHC kinda blew it (pun intended) by not putting up the "H" and stuff in last night's 11PM releases.

Folks here are kinda complacent, and without that H and watch and warning in their face, didn't get as revved up as they maybe should have (from personal anecdotal experience locally here.)

You look at the 48 hours guidance and such for watches and warnings, and to put this H up 6-8 hours before a very possible landfall is not an A+ public service, IMHO. Many of the folks here and Twitter were very helpful of course (keepin us on our toes), and thanks to all.

And if they put an H in the forecast and it never strengthened they would have blown it as well. You get your head bit off for comments like that because you should know better. Every storm we either get half the posters complaining the NHC exaggerated a storm or the other half saying they under forecast the storm. Give it a rest, for crying out loud.

I understand, but a few pages back there were numerous "atta boy" NHC doing a great job (especially when the several significant models were more than a bit different). Now I can't politely sincerely criticize them? What kind of discussion is that?

[NDG]

Every time the LLC gets tugged closer to the MLC unforecasted, chances of it making or partially making landfall in the Tamba Bay area increases, IHMO.

[Recurve]

Someone above made a good point, the trajectory could mean that in Pinellas County (Saint Petersburg, Largo, Clearwater, the beaches) the worst winds and certainly onshore flooding will most likely come after the center is past, with southwest flow unimpeded by land pushing the gulf waters onshore. Reminds me that Wilma's backside did a number on the Upper Keys after the center was far to the northeast, exiting Broward I believe.

[johngaltfla]

I finally get my internet and cable back after a band last night decided to drop a lightning hit right on my Xfinity/Comcast set up.

So that will probably mean I lose my power tonight.

Elsa is tricky but she's primed to ramp up the next 3 hours so buckle fellow Floridians, it's going to be another one of those long nights.

[tolakram]

6 hours away and the slowed-down path is still far from precise, and it will matter here.

I know i may get my head bit off, but this is a discussion forum, and I really think the NHC kinda blew it (pun intended) by not putting up the "H" and stuff in last night's 11PM releases.

Folks here are kinda complacent, and without that H and watch and warning in their face, didn't get as revved up as they maybe should have (from personal anecdotal experience locally here.)

You look at the 48 hours guidance and such for watches and warnings, and to put this H up 6-8 hours before a very possible landfall is not an A+ public service, IMHO. Many of the folks here and Twitter were very helpful of course (keepin us on our toes), and thanks to all.

And if they put an H in the forecast and it never strengthened they would have blown it as well. You get your head bit off for comments like that because you should know better. Every storm we either get half the posters complaining the NHC exaggerated a storm or the other half saying they under forecast the storm. Give it a rest, for crying out loud.

I understand, but a few pages back there were numerous "atta boy" NHC doing a great job (especially when the several significant models were more than a bit different). Now I can't politely sincerely criticize them? What kind of discussion is that?

I didn't take your post down, I disagreed with you in a discussion forum. Your point of view that people need warning so they aren't complacent is countered by 'people should not be over-warned because they'll get complacent'. There's no satisfying both opinions, and personally I don't really care if people are complacent or not. The NHC warns when they think is it's appropriate, and I'm figuring they will hold this as a hurricane all the way to landfall, even it it's not.

[rigbyrigz]

Simply a handful of hours before it happens, surprise surprise we see this now?

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along
the west coast of the state within the warning area through
Wednesday morning.

I know what the locals here, that WILL BE AFFECTED, are thinking and saying.

[Sanibel]

Increase in wind and rain intensity here...Foggy sheets of sideways-blowing rain...

All said, still only what you would expect from a TS offshore...

[AlphaToOmega]

Tampa Bay could see as much as 5 feet of storm surge. Much of Florida has at least a 90% chance of seeing tropical-storm-force winds. This will likely cause millions in damages in Florida alone. Hurricane Elsa has already caused millions of dollars in terms of damages, and that number will rise. Moreover, I think the impacts from Tropical Storm Elsa might be greater than most storms of its type because it is an early July storm. The media seldom report on hurricanes until mid-August.

[HurricaneBelle]

What makes Elsa potentially more dangerous than Eta and some of the June slop storms we've had in the Tampa Bay area over the years (Andrea 2013, Barry 2007) is that looking at the radar it has a fully formed northern eyewall around its center and not just a heavy band of squalls in a line to its right.

[StPeteMike]

Most retail/restaurants in downtown St. Pete are closed or closing at 6. The exception being many grocery stores. But downtown is pretty deserted for 5 pm.