ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

So just to make sure is this the most significant TC threat Tampa has seen in a while? If so when was the last time Tampa actually faced a hurricane threat up front?

No I was hammered on the pinellas county beaches with Irma . 90 mph sustained. Gusts higher

[caneman]

Well if there is a silver lining to Elsa for Pinellas County, maybe she will stir things up enough to get rid of the Red Tide that recently started.

Yep. Fishermen like myself would greatly appreciate that

That's what I was about to say earlier, Elsa will stir up the Bay and area beaches to hopefully get rid some of the Red Tide that has been plaguing that area since at least Memorial Weekend.

[rigbyrigz]

And if they put an H in the forecast and it never strengthened they would have blown it as well. You get your head bit off for comments like that because you should know better. Every storm we either get half the posters complaining the NHC exaggerated a storm or the other half saying they under forecast the storm. Give it a rest, for crying out loud.

I understand, but a few pages back there were numerous "atta boy" NHC doing a great job (especially when the several significant models were more than a bit different). Now I can't politely sincerely criticize them? What kind of discussion is that?

As early as 5am they mentioned it could become a hurricane. -

https://i.imgur.com/UveS1pt.png
I did not look back further, but that is more than 6 hours, as you suggested
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

True that, some of the local NWS handling has been (in my opinion) more on target than the NHC empire (which was the focus of my discussion points, as the media keys on that so much.)

[rigbyrigz]

So just to make sure is this the most significant TC threat Tampa has seen in a while? If so when was the last time Tampa actually faced a hurricane threat up front?

No I was hammered on the pinellas county beaches with Irma . 90 mph sustained. Gusts higher

Me too. Irma picked up 20 mph sustained wind speed the last few hours before landfall. Perry Airport had a gust over 100 recorded.

[artist]

I understand, but a few pages back there were numerous "atta boy" NHC doing a great job (especially when the several significant models were more than a bit different). Now I can't politely sincerely criticize them? What kind of discussion is that?

As early as 5am they mentioned it could become a hurricane. -

https://i.imgur.com/UveS1pt.png
I did not look back further, but that is more than 6 hours, as you suggested
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

True that, some of the local NWS handling has been (in my opinion) more on target than the NHC empire (which was the focus of my discussion points, as the media keys on that so much.)

Their information comes from the NHC.

[rigbyrigz]

As early as 5am they mentioned it could become a hurricane. -

https://i.imgur.com/UveS1pt.png
I did not look back further, but that is more than 6 hours, as you suggested
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

True that, some of the local NWS handling has been (in my opinion) more on target than the NHC empire (which was the focus of my discussion points, as the media keys on that so much.)

Their information comes from the NHC.

I don't want to argue. Yes, the NHC info is factored into NWS statements along with other input. I KNOW what the NHC usual venues designed for this did and didn't say and when. No A+ from me, that's all, far from it, sorry all. And I've been warned to stop commenting (or maybe it's a Watch?) LOL.

[Bigpapa]

I live in North Pinellas County about 5 miles due East of Dunedin Causway, current conditions Winds: calm, Sky's: Filtered Sunshine thru mostly overcast, no rain ATT.

[artist]

True that, some of the local NWS handling has been (in my opinion) more on target than the NHC empire (which was the focus of my discussion points, as the media keys on that so much.)

Their information comes from the NHC.

I don't want to argue. Yes, the NHC info is factored into NWS statements along with other input. I KNOW what the NHC usual venues designed for this did and didn't say and when. No A+ from me, that's all, far from it, sorry all. And I've been warned to stop commenting (or maybe it's a Watch?) LOL.

Weather forecasting is an imperfect science, unfortunately, but has immensely improved over the last 20 years.

[MetroMike]

So just to make sure is this the most significant TC threat Tampa has seen in a while? If so when was the last time Tampa actually faced a hurricane threat up front?

I want to say the last time Tampa Bay was under a Hurricane Warning was Irma in 2017?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1412527645129125888

[Spacecoast]

Not too shabby, IMHO...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interesting note: Per my (very rough) calculations, the cone of uncertainty has encompassed a total of ~600,000 square miles. In that area, the NHC has only been averaging at most 50 miles error beyond D3. That's kinda incredible if you think about it.

[Stormybajan]

This should be a Hurricane at 8. Also wheres recon? shouldnt there be constant recon flights at this point of Elsa being so close to land?

[Majek]

I read this forum all the time since moving to just above Pensacola in 2017. IMHO, several of you are going off topic. How about back to Elsa discussion

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1412532317000802305

[ElectricStorm]

True that, some of the local NWS handling has been (in my opinion) more on target than the NHC empire (which was the focus of my discussion points, as the media keys on that so much.)

Their information comes from the NHC.

I don't want to argue. Yes, the NHC info is factored into NWS statements along with other input. I KNOW what the NHC usual venues designed for this did and didn't say and when. No A+ from me, that's all, far from it, sorry all. And I've been warned to stop commenting (or maybe it's a Watch?) LOL.

I mean, what was the NHC supposed to do? At one point it looked as though Elsa could come in as a weak TS. What if the NHC had put the H on the map and then Elsa landfalled as a 35kt TS?

To me the NHC has done a fantastic job with this storm. I've never experienced a TS or hurricane but I feel like people should fully prepared, even if a storm is forecast to be "just" a TS. It shouldn't matter if the H is on the map or not. The NHC has had Elsa coming into W FL at at least 55kts+ on most of their forecasts for this storm so it's not like the public didn't know it was going to be impactful.

Just my thoughts.

[gatorcane]

Winds increasing at the next buoy Elsa will pass, gusts to 43mph and the center is still quite a ways from this buoy. Also on was from 2 hours ago.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42013

[AlphaToOmega]

I think Elsa will be upgraded to a hurricane in the 8:00 PM advisory.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I could definitely see wind gusts 75 to 90 mph tonight maybe 100 mph if we get a meso vortex.

Hurricane Irma brought gusts over 100 mph, a spotter measured 96 mph in Clearwater beach

[ElectricStorm]

Anyone know when the next recon is supposed to get out there?