ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

I could definitely see wind gusts 75 to 90 mph tonight maybe 100 mph if we get a meso vortex.

Let's be optimistic and acknowledge that this thing has ample time to degrade as well...and it could degrade quite a bit. still lots of options on the table with this small vortex.

[caneman]

I could definitely see wind gusts 75 to 90 mph tonight maybe 100 mph if we get a meso vortex.

Let's be optimistic and acknowledge that this thing has ample time to degrade as well...and it could degrade quite a bit. still lots of options on the table with this small vortex.

The trend is your friend plus NHC predicts hurricane. I choose realist

[tropicwatch]

This should be a Hurricane at 8. Also wheres recon? shouldnt there be constant recon flights at this point of Elsa being so close to land?

Next flight scheduled to take off anytime now.

[AlphaToOmega]

I could definitely see wind gusts 75 to 90 mph tonight maybe 100 mph if we get a meso vortex.

Let's be optimistic and acknowledge that this thing has ample time to degrade as well...and it could degrade quite a bit. still lots of options on the table with this small vortex.

If there is one thing the past has taught us regarding storms like these, it is that storms can intensify at the worst possible time. I could name numerous examples. To name one: Hurricane Hanna (2020)

[Sciencerocks]

[HurricaneBelle]

One aspect of its that's been something of a bust so far thankfully is the lack of tornadoes. We had that one tornado-warned storm early this afternoon in Highlands County but that's been it so far. And with the sun going down that will take one element out of the equation.

[boulderrr]

I could definitely see wind gusts 75 to 90 mph tonight maybe 100 mph if we get a meso vortex.

Let's be optimistic and acknowledge that this thing has ample time to degrade as well...and it could degrade quite a bit. still lots of options on the table with this small vortex.

The trend is your friend plus NHC predicts hurricane. I choose realist

Predicting this storm will lead to stronger winds than Hurricane Irma is closer to alarmist than realist.

[Hammy]

This should be a Hurricane at 8. Also wheres recon? shouldnt there be constant recon flights at this point of Elsa being so close to land?

Next flight scheduled to take off anytime now.

Are they waiting for a weather all clear? They mentioned on the weather channel that the morning flight's takeoff was delayed due to lightning nearby.

[DestinHurricane]

Radar appearance has really degraded in the past hour or so due to the shear. I don't think it intensifies much more

[psyclone]

It looks less organized now compared to an hour or so ago. there is a good burst of lightning in the western convective envelope

[ronjon]

I could definitely see wind gusts 75 to 90 mph tonight maybe 100 mph if we get a meso vortex.

Let's be optimistic and acknowledge that this thing has ample time to degrade as well...and it could degrade quite a bit. still lots of options on the table with this small vortex.

The trend is your friend plus NHC predicts hurricane. I choose realist

And I don't usually hype things but that vigorous COC has really improved with about a 10 mb pressure drop since it left the cuban coast. Thinking it'll maintain in its current steady state or increase from now till landfall. Oh, and the center now appears to be under the CDO. What bothers me a little was the Euro bringing it down to 982 mb...what was it seeing? Less shear with the LLC and MLC finally getting aligned near landfall?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the shear has lessened. The center is now under the convection. If that maintains this will strengthen.

[jfk08c]

Radar appearance has really degraded in the past hour or so due to the shear. I don't think it intensifies much more

If I had a dollar for every time i've heard that in this thread

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[Hammy]

Radar appearance has really degraded in the past hour or so due to the shear. I don't think it intensifies much more

It's moving almost directly towards the radar. The rain is going to look weaker a bit as it gets closer as it's no longer looking into the mid-levels where the rainfall is heaviest.

[gatorcane]

saved radar loop
https://i.imgur.com/uhXjTLs.gif

Is that clearing at the end the center? Is an eye trying to form?

[aspen]

Anyone know when the next recon flight heads out?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Another plane inbound finally. AF302 is on the runway.

[Vdogg]

Radar appearance has really degraded in the past hour or so due to the shear. I don't think it intensifies much more

Convection is still deepening on Sat. It's still likely gaining strength despite some transient structural issues.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at WV loop it looks like it found a small pocket of lesser shear. There is cirrus expanding in all directions.