ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

True that, some of the local NWS handling has been (in my opinion) more on target than the NHC empire (which was the focus of my discussion points, as the media keys on that so much.)

Their information comes from the NHC.

I don't want to argue. Yes, the NHC info is factored into NWS statements along with other input. I KNOW what the NHC usual venues designed for this did and didn't say and when. No A+ from me, that's all, far from it, sorry all. And I've been warned to stop commenting (or maybe it's a Watch?) LOL.

They nailed the track almost a week ago. Intensity is always a guessing game. People should always prepare for a category above the forecast. Big bend people should get that more than anyone after Michael.

[InfernoFlameCat]

what an eye. She has to be hurricane.

[sikkar]

Impressive ventilation + blow up.

[InfernoFlameCat]

guys we have a tilted eye. thats hilarious

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not sure if I agree with the "storm looks more disorganized on radar posts"

Reds are getting deeper, eye looks more defined to me.

[eastcoastFL]

This should be a Hurricane at 8. Also wheres recon? shouldnt there be constant recon flights at this point of Elsa being so close to land?

Next flight scheduled to take off anytime now.

Are they waiting for a weather all clear? They mentioned on the weather channel that the morning flight's takeoff was delayed due to lightning nearby.

Why are they flying out of airfields in the storm?

[aspen]

Not sure if I agree with the "storm looks more disorganized on radar posts"

Reds are getting deeper, eye looks more defined to me.

https://i.imgur.com/QbRExu4.gif

Not only that, but a new convective burst is expanding over the center. The LLC is also way less exposed than before. Recon might find a hurricane once it arrives if this continues.

[wx98]

Haven’t been able to follow the discussion much on here since Saturday but I see a very pronounced eye on Tampa radar. I see that recon is just leaving out of Keesler. It most likely has regained hurricane intensity.

[artist]

Recon is in the air.

[artist]

Next flight scheduled to take off anytime now.

Are they waiting for a weather all clear? They mentioned on the weather channel that the morning flight's takeoff was delayed due to lightning nearby.

Why are they flying out of airfields in the storm?

Mississippi got hit with some other storms this morning, thus the delay.

[artist]

Just as an fyi, always prepare for one intensity above forecast, to always be prepared for the just in case.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Who said this looks worse on radar? They are incorrect.

[typhoonty]

https://imgur.com/a/7IoIkOb


Well this was more impressive than I was expecting! And Irma was stronger in terms of winds for Tampa Bay but the surge may be worse because winds will be onshore this time. Very interested to see what recon finds.

[Vdogg]

Not sure if I agree with the "storm looks more disorganized on radar posts"

Reds are getting deeper, eye looks more defined to me.

https://i.imgur.com/QbRExu4.gif

I honestly can't tell what they're looking at. The stronger it gets the weaker they try to say it is. It's the best Elsa has looked it's entire existence.

[artist]

https://imgur.com/a/7IoIkOb

Well this was more impressive than I was expecting! And Irma was stronger in terms of winds for Tampa Bay but the surge may be worse because winds will be onshore this time. Very interested to see what recon finds.

Unfortunately high tide may occur at the worst possible time as well, according to the weather channel.

[eastcoastFL]

Are they waiting for a weather all clear? They mentioned on the weather channel that the morning flight's takeoff was delayed due to lightning nearby.

Why are they flying out of airfields in the storm?

Mississippi got hit with some other storms this morning, thus the delay.

Now that makes sense.

[DestinHurricane]

Not sure if I agree with the "storm looks more disorganized on radar posts"

Reds are getting deeper, eye looks more defined to me.

https://i.imgur.com/QbRExu4.gif

I honestly can't tell what they're looking at. The stronger it gets the weaker they try to say it is. It's the best Elsa has looked it's entire existence.

It keeps developing an eye feature but it gets torn apart by shear, then tried to rebuild it and again gets torn apart. I still think it maintains current intensity just not sure about more strengthening. It's possible though, and still a dangerous situation for the west coast of FL regardless.

[rigbyrigz]

https://imgur.com/a/7IoIkOb

Well this was more impressive than I was expecting! And Irma was stronger in terms of winds for Tampa Bay but the surge may be worse because winds will be onshore this time. Very interested to see what recon finds.

Not sure abt Tampa, but the angle for the Big Bend (unless it curves intensely East) seems the same as Irma...

...we had 10-11 foot surge at Keaton Beach (a bathroom in a building in the parking lot had seaweed in the toilet) and we lost our nice solid Pier (since rebuilt). Fingers crossed.

[tolakram]

Latest shear analysis shows the reduction in shear.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Not sure if I agree with the "storm looks more disorganized on radar posts"

Reds are getting deeper, eye looks more defined to me.

https://i.imgur.com/QbRExu4.gif

I honestly can't tell what they're looking at. The stronger it gets the weaker they try to say it is. It's the best Elsa has looked it's entire existence.

It keeps developing an eye feature but it gets torn apart by shear, then tried to rebuild it and again gets torn apart. I still think it maintains current intensity just not sure about more strengthening. It's possible though, and still a dangerous situation for the west coast of FL regardless.

That new eye ain’t going nowhere.