ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

So, now that we have established that this is a hurricane in the eyes of the storm2k community(wxman57excluded) how strong do we think it is? Now by definition this is not a hurricane yet so don’t go scurrying around yelling this is a hurricane if by some minute chance this isn’t upgraded but I am 99.9% sure this is a hurricane. I think it’s around 70knots based on the consistent 95 mph pixels I am seeing on radar.

[TallyTracker]

Do y’all think recon will make it in time for the 8 pm advisory?

[tolakram]

evening saved visible loop

[artist]

Do y’all think recon will make it in time for the 8 pm advisory?

They are descending to operational level now.

[jfk08c]

Do y’all think recon will make it in time for the 8 pm advisory?

Doesn't look like it

[hipshot]

One aspect of its that's been something of a bust so far thankfully is the lack of tornadoes. We had that one tornado-warned storm early this afternoon in Highlands County but that's been it so far. And with the sun going down that will take one element out of the equation.

What makes you think the tornado threat goes away when the sun goes down. It sure as hell doesn't here in Texas!

[drewschmaltz]

So, now that we have established that this is a hurricane ... Now by definition this is not a hurricane yet ... this is a hurricane ... I am 99.9% sure this is a hurricane.

I think they'll go with 64kts. This is a developing situation that needs the full attention of Tampa Bay.

[tolakram]

Convection on the down swing at the moment.

Saved IR loop

[AdamFirst]

Upgraded to hurricane at the 8 PM advisory. Against all odds!

[InfernoFlameCat]

We have a hurricane

[abajan]

ELSA IS A HURRICANE.

[AlphaToOmega]

This is now a hurricane

[artist]

TWC. Nhc made it a hurricane

[galaxy401]

So the NHC pulls the trigger before recon this time. Considering the eye appearance, I can see why. Looks like a hurricane now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I thought I was first lol

[eastcoastFL]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 83.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[gatorcane]

Wow look at this buoy

[eastcoastFL]

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.6 North, longitude
83.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 10 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed
by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast
to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late
Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United
States through Thursday.

Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Tampa Bay indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional slight strengthening will be possible
overnight. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late
Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Buoy 42013, located due north of Elsa, recently
measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) gusting
to 47 mph (76 km/h). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 mph) was recently
measured on North Captiva Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).

[eastcoastFL]

Some people might have to eat shoes, she looks better than ever

[drewschmaltz]

Wow look at this buoy

I've been watching that one too. It's going to update soon... https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42013&uom=E&tz=EST