ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MetroMike]

Appears as the center as I'm seeing on radar may come over Pinellas County, not that it really matters but just an observation.

[AnnularCane]

Some people might have to eat shoes, she looks better than ever

https://www.weathernerds.org/radar/sessions/78074988.gif?0.3634650507122874

I have a funny feeling there may be some shoe-eating (or other nonedibles) before the season is over.

[AlphaToOmega]

I will eat my shoe if and only if Hurricane Elsa obtains winds stronger than those in Hurricane Patricia (2015).

[dexterlabio]

So...king euro after all?

[AnnularCane]

Latest shear analysis shows the reduction in shear.
https://i.imgur.com/vFfUY8I.png

Levi mentioned it in one of his videos. Neutral shear (around 20kts) is enough to keep it from RI but not enough to shred Elsa, so there is space from some slow development.
C1 hurricane is doable.

How have you been holding up with Elsa so far?

[MGC]

Outflow in Elsa's west side has improved the past couple of hours. Quite evident the cyclone is breathing better. Didn't think Elsa would regain hurricane intensity but it did. Looks to get quite windy in the Tampa Bay area. If you live in a flood zone get out. Moving water can and will destroy the best constructed structures.....MGC

[drewschmaltz]

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Elsa.html click a pin for some nice sea level grapics.

[toad strangler]

Well, well, well, looky at what we have here .... 2021 gonna 2021

[crimi481]

Cool- Cane forms right off my couat - in Englewood. On patio enjoying the gusts. No heavy rain bands, Strange ---this Elsa alien storm

[abajan]

Pressure's down a couple millibars since the 5 pm advisory.

[johngaltfla]

Well, well, well, looky at what we have here .... 2021 gonna 2021

I would prefer 2021 go fish more than get close to home. Just sayin'.

[Sanibel]

Cool- Cane forms right off my couat - in Englewood. On patio enjoying the gusts. No heavy rain bands, Strange ---this Elsa alien storm

They'll be there...Trust me...Blowing a gale here...

Eye showing up on sunset visible...Looks like a proper hurricane and fierce...

[GrovesNest]

Eerily quiet here in St. Pete. Winds slowly picking up, but dry. Weirdest lead up to a storm I’ve experienced. Can’t believe we’re six hours away from the worst of it.

[aspen]

So...king euro after all?

The HWRF correctly predicted Elsa’s first peak, but failed with everything after. The Euro correctly predicted Elsa’s second peak, but failed with everything prior.

I’d call it a tie.

[Michele B]

Well, well, well, looky at what we have here .... 2021 gonna 2021

And I thought crazy was going to go away with 2020.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So...king euro after all?

lol. The Euro didn't even develop this storm in the first place.

[toad strangler]

Eerily quiet here in St. Pete. Winds slowly picking up, but dry. Weirdest lead up to a storm I’ve experienced. Can’t believe we’re six hours away from the worst of it.

It's tiny

[tolakram]

Radar image has degraded, as well as IR. Something changed. Elsa can't look good for more than a few minutes.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon only finding pressures ~1001mb.

EDIT: 40 mph SFMR, so more likely ~996mb.

[tolakram]