ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Pretty weak on that pass also. I agree with Kyle this likely ramped up quickly to a hurricane but then ramped back down to TS just as fast.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I agree with wxman57 here, NHC jumped the gun on hurricane. There are no obs that suggest hurricane force and a blend of recon data is under 65 kt. Likely a 55-60 knot ts.

You know, we may think on occasion that we do a better job than the nhc, but we don’t. When you are right it may feel that way, however you will be less accurate than the nhc 99% of the time. Hold yourself to their standards and you will see what I mean.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The Skyway Bridge is getting some fierce gusts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY-btUJrEw8

[cheezyWXguy]

There doesn’t seem to be any real surface convergence with this thing, dry air seems to have gotten the best of it. That said, with more banding present to the west and southwest than before, it would seem the shear has backed off to some extent. One big burst and its back in business, but I wonder how likely that really is

[InfernoFlameCat]

To round up the experience of Elsa, Humans make mistakes. But we can always learn from them. The NHC team is made of humans, we are humans(I hope) and no matter how incredible Wxman57 is at weather, he is human too. We all make mistakes, but it makes us all the better for it.

[DestinHurricane]

To round up the experience of Elsa, Humans make mistakes. But we can always learn from them. The NHC team is made of humans, we are humans(I hope) and no matter how incredible Wxman57 is at weather, he is human too. We all make mistakes, but it makes us all the better for it.

wxman57 has nailed this storm from the start

[wxman57]

Don't see any evidence of a hurricane and have to agree this is a strong TS and NHC is being cautious. There is simply nothing being found with sustained winds of 74mph or greater.

Recon data indicate 50-55 kts. Radar data can be very misleading when trying to reduce winds to the surface.

[InfernoFlameCat]

To round up the experience of Elsa, Humans make mistakes. But we can always learn from them. The NHC team is made of humans, we are humans(I hope) and no matter how incredible Wxman57 is at weather, he is human too. We all make mistakes, but it makes us all the better for it.

wxman57 has nailed this storm from the start

Thats why he is incredible.

[MetroMike]

Dry air is eating the storm to pieces around the Bay area. Certainly not what was advertised earlier and may call it a night soon. Was expecting an exciting overnight here. Meh

[GrayLancer18]

One thing is for sure, the TCR of this thing is gonna be a nightmare to make.

I feel sorry for the poor person who gets assigned for it.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Dry air is eating the storm to pieces around the Bay area. Certainly not what was advertised earlier and may call it a night soon. Was expecting an exciting overnight here. Meh

You jinxed the storm. It’s a cat 5 now

[Nimbus]

Still very calm here in Clearwater, the storm must be super small. Never been this close to a tropical storm with such small impacts. We get a little gust of wind occasionally, still no rain to speak of. Nothing even close to registering in the gauge.

Duke energy reporting 332 power outages down in Gulfport by the Skyway.
No repair dates given except "July 8th" for one outage?

[StormPyrate]

Dry air is eating the storm to pieces around the Bay area. Certainly not what was advertised earlier and may call it a night soon. Was expecting an exciting overnight here. Meh

I will take Meh to the alternative any time. No one injured or killed and so far not much damage, yep I am good

[ElectricStorm]

Recon has the LLC getting tugged NE towards the MLC on the last pass. We'll see if Elsa is finally able to get stacked...

[StPeteMike]

Dry air is eating the storm to pieces around the Bay area. Certainly not what was advertised earlier and may call it a night soon. Was expecting an exciting overnight here. Meh

Conditions around the area are expected to start deteriorating around 11 pm. 50 mph winds are still in a relatively small field and will start being felt by then. Don’t know what you mean by “not as advertised”.

[skyline385]

When you have a landfalling system, its always better to err on the side of caution. The general public who isnt made up of weather enthusiasts will take greater caution when they hear of Hurricane Elsa rather than Tropical Storm Elsa, and the system was ramping up during the last recon. It was the right call by NHC to call a hurricane warning rather than wait for a system which was on its way to landfall.

Also, its always easier to comment on NHC's decision sitting on these forums...

[ElectricStorm]

Looking really bad on radar now, although it is DMIN. Still though, what a difference a couple hours makes...

[caneman]

I agree with wxman57 here, NHC jumped the gun on hurricane. There are no obs that suggest hurricane force and a blend of recon data is under 65 kt. Likely a 55-60 knot ts.

Disagree. Storms pulse up and down

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Elsa is really falling apart on radar now. Definitely no longer a hurricane, although surge impacts should be the same regardless.

[caneman]

To round up the experience of Elsa, Humans make mistakes. But we can always learn from them. The NHC team is made of humans, we are humans(I hope) and no matter how incredible Wxman57 is at weather, he is human too. We all make mistakes, but it makes us all the better for it.

wxman57 has nailed this storm from the start

Although I respect wxmn57, he didn't predict it to become as organized or as strong as it did.