ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

0z best track
05L ELSA 210707 0000 26.7N 83.2W ATL 65 996

Thanks. I wasn’t sure how far west it would get. Living at 90 I always try to pay attention. I was thinking inside 83.5 but a couple models did want to bring it almost to Apalachicola’s parallel (85ish). I didn’t see it swinging past 84 unless the system followed a series of west side outbursts on a rare level. We’ll see how far it can get.

[ElectricStorm]

Pressure way up now. 1005.6mb extrap

[InfernoFlameCat]

To round up the experience of Elsa, Humans make mistakes. But we can always learn from them. The NHC team is made of humans, we are humans(I hope) and no matter how incredible Wxman57 is at weather, he is human too. We all make mistakes, but it makes us all the better for it.

wxman57 has nailed this storm from the start

Although I respect wxmn57, he didn't predict it to become as organized or as strong as it did.

He did better than all of us

[InfernoFlameCat]

Pressure way up now. 1005.6mb extrap

The core just collapsed
Goes to show the system was probably a hurricane ATM of upgrade.

[tolakram]

Looks like what there was of an MLC has collapsed.

saved loop

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pressure way up now. 1005.6mb extrap

Not quite. SFMR was ~50 knots. This would imply a pressure around 1000 mb.

[galaxy401]

Wow that inner core completely fell apart. Wind shear to blame?

[TampaBayBee]

Dry air is eating the storm to pieces around the Bay area. Certainly not what was advertised earlier and may call it a night soon. Was expecting an exciting overnight here. Meh

Agree! Just when the winds were earning my respect, things have gone quiet. Neighbors have started launching fireworks. Go figure.

[ElectricStorm]

Pressure way up now. 1005.6mb extrap

The core just collapsed

Yep, although that was MLC. Hardly any wind on the entire N side. This is probably one of the quickest ramp up/ramp down phases I've ever tracked, maybe even the quickest.

[caneman]

Really does look to be falling apart. This storm has been Unreal

[gatorcane]

Wow that inner core completely fell apart. Wind shear to blame?

Tampa deflector shield activated and working effectively yet again.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like what there was of an MLC has collapsed.

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/KSoPuTT.gif

Wow. I've never really believed in the Tampa "shield", but that's incredible to watch. The storm just fell apart right as it tried to approach Tampa.

Given this storms history, it could just as easily ramp back up, but that was impressive.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Pressure way up now. 1005.6mb extrap

The core just collapsed

Yep, although that was MLC. Hardly any wind on the entire N side. This is probably one of the quickest ramp up/ramp down phases I've ever tracked, maybe even the quickest.

Yeah one could have argued Cat 1 85mph at one point. Now it looks like a 47knot 55mph storm. I wish there was such a thing.

[AtlanticWind]

Estimating a storms strength is almost always some amount of guesswork , Recon can easily miss the
Strongest winds in a storm. In some cases a storm may intensify into a hurricane briefly which
may be this case. The area of hurricane force winds could be in only a tiny area of a storm.

Also as we know there is not that much differnce in the effect of 70 mph compared to 75.

My point being that while it can be interesting to debate this, we never know exactly
Whats going on in a storm and I think the NHC gives us pretty much the best info
we can expect,

I dont have problems with other experts or knowledgeable amateurs debating the strength
But I think at the end of the day its really not that important as long as the public is
being warrned adequately. JMO

[caneman]

Can't say that I've ever witnessed a collapse on radar like that.

[birdwomn]

Dry air is eating the storm to pieces around the Bay area. Certainly not what was advertised earlier and may call it a night soon. Was expecting an exciting overnight here. Meh

Agree! Just when the winds were earning my respect, things have gone quiet. Neighbors have started launching fireworks. Go figure.

I will take Meh every single time over devastating destruction.

[MarioProtVI]

Mark my words 00z is gonna be 55 kt in TCR and 18z revised to 65 kt. Not even a hurricane right now and is literally doing what Eta did in its second hurricane phase (core collapses immediately after upgrade). Probably back to TS at 11.

[psyclone]

a sudden collapse of the system was something i long considered an option. this thing has been sickly from the start...tepid and frail as base state amidst occasional albeit brief signs of life...

[Nimbus]

That was awesome, just before causing havoc in the Tampa bay area the shear poofed it.

[ElectricStorm]

On radar now looks like the LLC is starting to come into view. MLC and LLC might be coming closer together. I'm not counting this storm out yet by any means as we could see it try to organize again during DMAX. But man that collapse on radar was something else.