ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[typhoonty]

I think the 8PM advisory could've gone either way. However, if the plane had left when it was supposed to an hour earlier at 22z it would've caught Elsa at peak intensity. I do believe it was a hurricane west of Fort Myers, and there would've been an update to the intensity at like 6:30 PM if recon had gone in as scheduled. A blend of the data collected when recon went in yielded 60-65 kts, and Stewart went 65. Around the time of the microwave pass I posted would be when peak intensity was, and it was intensifying at that time.

I don't think you can fault either decision here, their prognostication has been great regardless.

EDIT: I have a friend with access to NHC. He says NHC used a combo of buoy data + radar velocity data to make the call. Makes me think the call was made prior to advisory time, due to the delay in recon. Don't expect a downgrade at 11, NHC will not let the public put its guard down until it's clear there won't be a cycle up.

[NDG]

The Tampa Bay hurricane shield is at it again.

[HurricaneBelle]

Can't say that I've ever witnessed a collapse on radar like that.

It's like Florida's Don

[InfernoFlameCat]

On radar now looks like the LLC is starting to come into view. MLC and LLC might be coming closer together. I'm not counting this storm out yet by any means as we could see it try to organize again during DMAX. But man that collapse on radar was something else.

I see the beginnings of a new eye beginning to form. It needs convection but she is not done yet. Also consider a JULY STORM was able to do that was remarkable.

[Nuno]

Yep, Stewart just upgraded it to a hurricane. He's known to be very quick to upgrade, which has gotten him into a bit of trouble at times.

Which storm did he do that with?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yep, Stewart just upgraded it to a hurricane. He's known to be very quick to upgrade, which has gotten him into a bit of trouble at times.

Which storm did he do that with?

I think he is the one who did Matthew post analysis. But let’s not throw dirt around.

[psyclone]

there's lots of good rains and banding coming into the west coast. this is a top notch porch sitting top shelf liquor storm.

[HurricaneBelle]

I will say that it's starting to show an eye again on radar with a strengthening cell or two on its east side and if it can wrap in that feeder band extending from Sarasota south it might ramp back up a bit. Absolutely nothing with the storm will surprise me any longer.

[TallyTracker]

Wow…it looks like the top of the storm got decapitated! Very cool to see on radar like that. I think the shear has returned…

[HurricaneBelle]

One aspect of its that's been something of a bust so far thankfully is the lack of tornadoes. We had that one tornado-warned storm early this afternoon in Highlands County but that's been it so far. And with the sun going down that will take one element out of the equation.

What makes you think the tornado threat goes away when the sun goes down. It sure as hell doesn't here in Texas!

This isn't Texas in the spring, this is a tropical air mass over Florida which needs surface heating to enhance the storms in the outer bands which normally produce tornadoes. And here we are hours later, and still no tornadoes reported.

[psyclone]

One aspect of its that's been something of a bust so far thankfully is the lack of tornadoes. We had that one tornado-warned storm early this afternoon in Highlands County but that's been it so far. And with the sun going down that will take one element out of the equation.

What makes you think the tornado threat goes away when the sun goes down. It sure as hell doesn't here in Texas!

This isn't Texas in the spring, this is a tropical air mass over Florida which needs surface heating to enhance the storms in the outer bands which normally produce tornadoes. And here we are hours later, and still no tornadoes reported.

That feeder band to the south could get productive though. never trust those

[toad strangler]

TINY

[StPeteMike]

I will say that it's starting to show an eye again on radar with a strengthening cell or two on its east side and if it can wrap in that feeder band extending from Sarasota south it might ramp back up a bit. Absolutely nothing with the storm will surprise me any longer.

Agreed. One minute it looks great, next minute looks like trash. Looks great on satellite but then recon shows her in a sad state, polar opposite when it looks like crap on satellite.

Keeping her at 75 mph might be the best thing to do, don’t want to be going back and forth with the intensity.

[HurricaneBelle]

Josh Morgerman has the line of the night on Elsa:

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1412599057663528964

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like LLC and MLC continue to get closer on radar...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think I speak for all of us when I say that Elsa has been the most confusing storm I've ever tracked.

[ConvergenceZone]

I will say that it's starting to show an eye again on radar with a strengthening cell or two on its east side and if it can wrap in that feeder band extending from Sarasota south it might ramp back up a bit. Absolutely nothing with the storm will surprise me any longer.

Agreed. One minute it looks great, next minute looks like trash. Looks great on satellite but then recon shows her in a sad state, polar opposite when it looks like crap on satellite.

Keeping her at 75 mph might be the best thing to do, don’t want to be going back and forth with the intensity.

I agree that it looks like garbage.... Next???????????????
I'm ready to move on and wait for the next one.

[Stormybajan]

Elsa has taken the crown as the Queen of Confusion and Trolls

[ElectricStorm]

I would assume this current pass from recon will be the last one for this mission. Anyone know when the next one is scheduled to take off?

[HurricaneBelle]

So much for the center looking a little better on radar, it's getting stretched and elongated now where it looks like it's undergoing spaghettification as if it were entering a black hole