ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

This is very clearly weakening and was probably never a hurricane again to begin with, or it was but very briefly. Pressure has risen over half a dozen mbar since the recon flight that found a 60 kt TS.

[psyclone]

I'm downgrading all my headlines to a snooze watch

[crimi481]

awesome rain bands j\here in Englewood

[ElectricStorm]

1001mb extrap this pass

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC keeps it as a hurricane at the 11PM advisory ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Steve]

I think I speak for all of us when I say that Elsa has been the most confusing storm I've ever tracked.

I didn’t get that. It did its thing, but outside of minor track and intensity fluctuations, it’s done what many of the models and NHC suggested from 5+ days out. I thought it was an eastern Gulf storm from last Thursday. I wasn’t sure if it was going to reach hurricane strength in the Gulf (debatable if it did), or exactly which side of our armpit it would land on.

[Kazmit]

Is there a minimum amount of time a TC has to be at hurricane strength in order to be classified as one?

[ElectricStorm]

...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE TAMPA BAY AREA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC keeps it as a hurricane at the 11PM advisory ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Tellingly, though, they dropped any chance of hurricane force winds for Tampa and cut the probability of high-end TS winds almost in half from 64 to 34.

[ElectricStorm]

New cone. Now forecast to landfall as a TS, even though it most certainly already is.

[Stormybajan]

...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE TAMPA BAY AREA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

This is going to be one longgggg and frustrating TCR for whoever has to do it..

[crimi481]

Heavy rain bands training over me. More to come. OMG my pool is full. and thunder.

[psyclone]

Heavy rain bands training over me. More to come. OMG my pool is full. and thunder.

Looks like a crush job in southern sarasota. isn't that where you are? some of that may be dragged up the coast over time

[crimi481]

Yes -Englewood Crush

[Hammy]

Given the 2pm intensity was 70mph--confirmed by recon--and radar appearance this was almost assuredly a hurricane, but probably around 5pm.

Is there a minimum amount of time a TC has to be at hurricane strength in order to be classified as one?

I don't think so. Barry in 2019 was a hurricane for a few hours right at landfall, so it's entirely possible the final BT has the 18 and 00 positions as tropical storm, but have an intermediate point indicating it was a hurricane around 21z.

[HurricaneBelle]

Presented without comment:

"The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight."

[StPeteMike]

Presented without comment:

"The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight."

Called it. Not that I expect it but at this point, better safe than sorry.

[Nuno]

I think I speak for all of us when I say that Elsa has been the most confusing storm I've ever tracked.

I don't know... Isaias last year was really bad.

[caneman]

Presented without comment:

"The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight."

Really curious as to what caused the almost instantaneous collapse right as it was in ramp up mode. Fascinating

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think I speak for all of us when I say that Elsa has been the most confusing storm I've ever tracked.

I don't know... Isaias last year was really bad.

That storm was the ultimate headache.