ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WilmingtonSandbar]

She looks to be moving more ENE than NNE. I wonder if she is going to fuel up from the Atlantic?

[Sciencerocks]

[Vdogg]

She looks to be moving more ENE than NNE. I wonder if she is going to fuel up from the Atlantic?

Looks like she may be touching the Gulf Stream. That convection is serious and this storm looks about as good as it did at landfall. No way it drops to a depression if it stays over water like this. Would now be surprised to see tropical storm warnings for NC and VA in the morning if not at the 11 pm update. Is recon still flying?

[Vdogg]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9317/xRBb9B.gif

Llc is hugging the coast on the extreme right side of the cone. I suspect they’ll be upping some rain totals too.

[Sciencerocks]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9317/xRBb9B.gif

Llc is hugging the coast on the extreme right side of the cone. Is suspect they’ll be upping some rain totals too.

Maybe the convection can force the LLC over water....Will see.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9317/xRBb9B.gif

Llc is hugging the coast on the extreme right side of the cone. Is suspect they’ll be upping some rain totals too.

She's on her way to us Vdogg. Don't put your phone on silent tonight, just in case there is a tornado warning.

[Vdogg]

NC met posted this 3 hours ago.

https://twitter.com/nate_hh/status/1412 ... 03104?s=21

[Vdogg]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9317/xRBb9B.gif

Llc is hugging the coast on the extreme right side of the cone. Is suspect they’ll be upping some rain totals too.

Maybe the convection can force the LLC over water....Will see.

Annnd, it’s over water… Wish I knew how to post a Sat image cause SC is getting rocked right now. It looks like a hurricane.

[Vdogg]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/790efe1a-7cad-449e-9f54-a8e0b8ee11ff

Mighty strange looking depression.

[artist]

Llc is hugging the coast on the extreme right side of the cone. Is suspect they’ll be upping some rain totals too.

Maybe the convection can force the LLC over water....Will see.

Annnd, it’s over water… Wish I knew how to post a Sat image cause SC is getting rocked right now. It looks like a hurricane.

Here you go
Sorry, it didn’t post the loop

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Llc is hugging the coast on the extreme right side of the cone. Is suspect they’ll be upping some rain totals too.

Maybe the convection can force the LLC over water....Will see.

Annnd, it’s over water… Wish I knew how to post a Sat image cause SC is getting rocked right now. It looks like a hurricane.

11pm NHC says that it is still tracking NNE. They did extend trop warnings up through Maryland, and keep it as a trop storm all the way up the coast.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

From the 11pm Disco.

"There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North
Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive
tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been
upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas. Areas to the
north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch."

[tiger_deF]

I think it is absolutely worth noting that as of right now, the only major areas of power outages that I can see are located in Georgia, so I would wager that the area affected by wind and the maximum wind speed has been rising slightly in the past hour or two.

[Steve]

Lot of people will get a taste of Elsa to come. That’s all the way up the coast to Massachusetts and beyond. All the big cities up the east coast will see at least something. Best guess is that coastal and marine areas will see the most weather. I’ll be watching how far inland (or not) it tracks and where the energy focuses. Could be east or west side. We don’t have much early July precedent to know for sure. Easy forecast from everyone from the coastal Carolinas up through eastern Canada is probably blustery, periods of heavy rain and gusts 40+. I’m glad it’s not a mega system as we can all see what type of damage that could lead to. Interesting 2-3 days ahead.

Also the rainfall in coastal south Texas today was worth mentioning. I haven’t followed the thread, but one of the globals caught that the other day. Upper continental trough, low pressure to the southwest of the trough and energy from some of the 95L wave. Sometimes the site is hard to search on mobile but I’ll look back at the Elsa model thread and see which was the model that really picked up on that. I halfway want to say it was the CMC from Sunday or Monday.

[Vdogg]

I think it is absolutely worth noting that as of right now, the only major areas of power outages that I can see are located in Georgia, so I would wager that the area affected by wind and the maximum wind speed has been rising slightly in the past hour or two.

Luckily for those in SC, the mean side of the storm is out over water now. Eastern NC is gonna bear the brunt of this one.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Is the 11pm NHC location of the storm center accurate? Satellite and radar seems like there is a new center just off the coast of SC.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Is the 11pm NHC location of the storm center accurate? Satellite and radar seems like there is a new center just off the coast of SC.

Actually, I zoomed out on the radar to a wider national level, and can see the center SE of Warner Robbins.

[SouthernBreeze]

Is the 11pm NHC location of the storm center accurate? Satellite and radar seems like there is a new center just off the coast of SC.

I've been watching that too - I certainly hope it's not!

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Is the 11pm NHC location of the storm center accurate? Satellite and radar seems like there is a new center just off the coast of SC.

I believe both satellite and radar are looking at the MLC. The LLC, based on surface observations, is still located NNW of Waycross, ESE of Macon, and near the confluence of the Ocmulgee and Oconee rivers.

There might be a developing surface reflection of the MLC off the coast, but I've not seen coastal OBS shift directions to indicate that. Certainly something to watch if it manages to persist for the next several hours, however; wouldn't be entirely surprised to see the LLC get tugged closer to the coast, though it's not currently forecast to do so.

[Vdogg]

80 mph gusts reported in Hilton Head…

https://twitter.com/anthonymweather/sta ... 48608?s=21