2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Since I’ve been trying to find this for a while, PMM values:

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode ... me/PMM.txt

2020 10 4.82 7.86
2020 11 5.03 -0.66
2020 12 2.46 -9.00
2021 1 -1.09 -17.07
2021 2 -2.64 -7.06
2021 3 -3.69 -7.08
2021 4 -1.22 4.65
2021 5 -2.11 -1.40

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/d ... do/pdo.txt

2020-01 -0.1987
2020-02 -0.4053
2020-03 -0.8551
2020-04 -0.6237
2020-05 0.2480
2020-06 0.1435
2020-07 -0.1704
2020-08 -0.4393
2020-09 -0.1337
2020-10 0.2766
2020-11 -0.7559
2020-12 -0.2030
2021-01 0.1052
2021-02 -0.2658
2021-03 -0.8914
2021-04 -0.8143
2021-05 -1.0431

Canadian, American, and European models do show a bit of a rebound PDO wise but not PMM wise looking at the SST configuration.

[Yellow Evan]

Re-posting this. Will say this is an improvement from 2019-2020.

[Kingarabian]

Since I’ve been trying to find this for a while, PMM values:

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode ... me/PMM.txt

2020 10 4.82 7.86
2020 11 5.03 -0.66
2020 12 2.46 -9.00
2021 1 -1.09 -17.07
2021 2 -2.64 -7.06
2021 3 -3.69 -7.08
2021 4 -1.22 4.65
2021 5 -2.11 -1.40

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/d ... do/pdo.txt

2020-01 -0.1987
2020-02 -0.4053
2020-03 -0.8551
2020-04 -0.6237
2020-05 0.2480
2020-06 0.1435
2020-07 -0.1704
2020-08 -0.4393
2020-09 -0.1337
2020-10 0.2766
2020-11 -0.7559
2020-12 -0.2030
2021-01 0.1052
2021-02 -0.2658
2021-03 -0.8914
2021-04 -0.8143
2021-05 -1.0431

Canadian, American, and European models do show a bit of a rebound PDO wise but not PMM wise looking at the SST configuration.

its probably too late for a +PMM. If there's to be a decent +PMM event, it usually starts during December and peaks during the Spring. But its signature remains for the hurricane season. Still, there have been seasons that ended active despite a -PDO/-PMM. ENSO is the only variable left that will make or break this season. Whenever -ENSO pops up, its the end of the EPAC season.

[Yellow Evan]

Since I’ve been trying to find this for a while, PMM values:

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode ... me/PMM.txt

2020 10 4.82 7.86
2020 11 5.03 -0.66
2020 12 2.46 -9.00
2021 1 -1.09 -17.07
2021 2 -2.64 -7.06
2021 3 -3.69 -7.08
2021 4 -1.22 4.65
2021 5 -2.11 -1.40

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/d ... do/pdo.txt

2020-01 -0.1987
2020-02 -0.4053
2020-03 -0.8551
2020-04 -0.6237
2020-05 0.2480
2020-06 0.1435
2020-07 -0.1704
2020-08 -0.4393
2020-09 -0.1337
2020-10 0.2766
2020-11 -0.7559
2020-12 -0.2030
2021-01 0.1052
2021-02 -0.2658
2021-03 -0.8914
2021-04 -0.8143
2021-05 -1.0431

Canadian, American, and European models do show a bit of a rebound PDO wise but not PMM wise looking at the SST configuration.

its probably too late for a +PMM. If there's to be a decent +PMM event, it usually starts during December and peaks during the Spring. But its signature remains for the hurricane season. Still, there have been seasons that ended active despite a -PDO/-PMM. ENSO is the only variable left that will make or break this season. Whenever -ENSO pops up, its the end of the EPAC season.

Right, more posting for posterity. It’ll be something to watch for next season, though.

[Yellow Evan]

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/times ... Timeseries

2000 22.482 22.741 23.053 23.854 24.559 24.701 25.531 26.116 25.998 25.389 24.406 23.429
2001 22.855 22.918 22.768 23.582 24.451 24.789 25.696 26.400 26.168 25.524 24.890 23.805
2002 22.828 22.472 23.256 24.209 24.758 24.898 25.458 26.066 25.940 25.767 24.556 23.707
2003 23.113 23.449 23.510 24.128 25.054 25.070 25.457 26.356 26.368 25.755 25.208 23.583
2004 22.922 22.618 23.432 23.974 24.917 25.236 25.788 26.442 26.249 26.034 24.864 23.549
2005 23.363 23.266 23.406 24.121 24.765 25.362 25.413 25.989 26.183 25.463 24.553 23.583
2006 22.965 22.868 23.325 24.335 24.661 24.937 25.881 26.372 26.324 26.061 24.915 23.613
2007 22.799 22.774 23.338 23.937 24.533 25.115 25.712 26.047 26.138 25.417 24.499 23.487
2008 22.423 22.435 22.756 23.663 24.496 24.820 25.105 26.032 25.784 25.493 24.687 23.696
2009 23.173 23.256 23.566 24.160 24.759 25.558 26.102 26.735 26.758 26.406 24.951 24.001
2010 23.125 22.875 23.101 23.958 24.666 24.938 25.163 25.690 25.606 24.951 23.976 22.707
2011 22.118 22.064 22.848 23.761 24.471 24.667 24.993 25.656 25.930 25.294 24.273 23.083
2012 22.622 22.687 23.008 23.792 24.602 24.710 25.182 25.781 26.117 25.972 24.981 24.202
2013 22.968 23.083 23.136 24.002 24.960 25.198 25.775 26.308 26.096 25.695 24.727 23.730
2014 22.960 23.397 23.989 24.531 25.226 25.828 26.403 26.953 26.477 26.362 25.208 24.403
2015 23.775 23.811 24.167 25.251 25.677 25.988 26.726 27.321 27.385 27.247 26.263 24.934
2016 23.804 23.654 24.204 24.767 25.385 25.761 26.339 26.773 26.648 26.366 25.780 24.365
2017 23.677 23.522 24.058 24.522 25.060 25.245 26.008 26.641 26.422 26.074 25.657 24.603
2018 23.660 23.841 24.104 24.779 25.373 25.581 26.242 26.740 26.790 26.073 25.073 24.103
2019 23.587 23.760 24.137 24.574 25.167 25.452 25.886 26.813 26.682 26.033 25.209 24.412
2020 23.530 23.292 23.990 24.462 25.173 25.527 26.050 26.501 26.350 26.291 25.437 23.864
2021 22.930 22.842 23.173 24.042 24.674 25.153 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999
-999.999

June SST's coldest since 2013 once again.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS shows a lot of vorticity being caught up in CA. This is likely inhibiting TCG in the EPAC for the model. This isn't likely considering it will be mid July and usually this area of vorticity spreads out and splits in either the EPAC or Atlantic side.


00z CMC continues to insist on a hurricane followed by another TC:


00z Euro has three separate competing vorts' with the last one developing in 10 days:


00z EPS:

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC:


12z Euro:

Three seperate competing areas.

[Yellow Evan]

Meh

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS still has something in 10 days.

[Kingarabian]

0z GFS still has something in 10 days.

Yeah. Doesn't even have the same 850mb vorticity setup that the Euro and CMC show for the next 10 days. Though it has a major hurricane in the long range with development in 240 hours

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro:


00z CMC:


Nearly identical. The Euro and CMC are showing development in association with a CCKW.

The GFS isn't doing much with this CCKW, but it begins to hint at July 20th development likely due to it detecting the MJO signal in the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro has three areas from days 7 to 10 with one crossing to CPAC.

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC still bullish. 12Z UKMET also now in range and beginning to show development.

[Yellow Evan]

Already 10 days out and the globals are showing slop.

[Kingarabian]

Don't forget to extrapolate the Euro and CMC intensities higher. They're bearish on TC intensities by default.

For example, the first hurricane the CMC has peaks @ 988mb. For Hurricane Enrique, the CMC peaked it around 990mb and instead it reached 976mb.

So I would say the first hurricane the CMC has, would equate to a solid Cat.2/Cat.3.

Its second hurricane, it peaks it @ 976mb. This is like a solid Cat.4 for the model lol.



Need the GFS to come on board so we know what we're dealing with here. NCEP models currently have a messy -VP200 forecast.

[Yellow Evan]

CMC yes ECMWF can resolve storms at high intensities reasonably well at this point.



18z GFS is on board shwoing a potent hurricane but also develops this at 88W. Anything east of 95W is tough.

[Kingarabian]

Here's a shot of Greg, Hilary and Irwin on July 24th, 2017. I think 2017 is a great ENSO analog this season. It's also feasible that we could see 2 systems in the next 10 days as the CMC and Euro show, as well as another 2 systems to close out July with the MJO moving in.

[Kingarabian]

Could be a candidate for a circle in the next few days. This will be area 1/3 in what the Euro and CMC are showing.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS once again spinning this up near 90W...

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET ready to go:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.3N 89.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.07.2021 120 10.3N 89.2W 1006 26
1200UTC 13.07.2021 132 10.6N 91.9W 1004 31
0000UTC 14.07.2021 144 11.4N 94.0W 999 38