Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/
This link should work - http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastJuly2021.pdf
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: (CSU July update at noon EDT) TSR=20/9/4
TSR still calling for quite a busy season.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/
Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
aspen wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/
Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.
It actually is there most aggressive prediction before August.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:aspen wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/
Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.
It actually is there most aggressive prediction before August.
They are for the most part conservative if you look at past forecasts.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
aspen wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/
Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.
Atlantic is warm north and south but not in the MDR So I'm curious if that can really produce a hyperactive season. My instincts say probably not but if it does I think it would change some of our paradigms.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:SFLcane wrote:aspen wrote:Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.
It actually is there most aggressive prediction before August.
They are for the most part conservative if you look at past forecasts.
Curious what CSU says today. Definitely some mixed signals
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:SFLcane wrote:aspen wrote:Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.
It actually is there most aggressive prediction before August.
They are for the most part conservative if you look at past forecasts.
July 2016 Forecast: 16/8/3, 115 ACE
Final numbers: 15/7/4, 141 ACE
July 2017 Forecast: 17/7/3, 116 ACE
Final numbers: 17/10/6, 225 ACE
July 2018 Forecast: 9/4/1, 36 ACE
Final numbers: 15/8/2, 132 ACE
July 2019 Forecast: 12/6/2, 89 ACE
Final numbers: 18/6/3, 132 ACE
July 2020 Forecast: 18/8/4, 137 ACE
Final numbers: 30/14/7, 180 ACE
July 2021 Forecast: 20/9/4, 141 ACE
Final number: oh no
TSR has been consistently too low with their ACE predictions. While their NS/H/MH forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were close, ever since then, they have also been too low, especially in 2018 and 2019. However, 2018 was definitely a result of an extremely cold MDR and a possible Nino on the way, both of which were offset by the strong WAM later in the season. I think their 2021 numbers will be close to what we actually see, and that part of the reason they’re so aggressive is due to usually being conservative and last year’s insane activity.
TSR’s ACE forecasts have, on average, been only 60.8% of the true ACE that season finished up at, with the worst estimate being 2018 (36 ACE/27.3% of the actual value) and the best being 2020 (137 ACE/76.1% of the actual value). If this July TSR ACE estimate ends up as 60-80% of the actual ACE we end up seeing, then 2021 could finish with anywhere from 175-235 ACE.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:aspen wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/
Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.
Atlantic is warm north and south but not in the MDR So I'm curious if that can really produce a hyperactive season. My instincts say probably not but if it does I think it would change some of our paradigms.
It’s not nearly as bad on NOAA’s Coral Reef SST maps, since CDAS has a significant cold bias and is super sensitive to SAL. Also, if the ITCZ remains tilted like it is now, then AEWs will emerge at a lower latitude compared to last season and remain in warm enough waters throughout their journey. This setup could lead to high ACE Caribbean cruisers, maybe even storms like Ivan, Emily, Dean, and Felix.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: (CSU July update at noon EDT)
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: (CSU July update at noon EDT)
cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/E7ogdtV.jpg
Wow!!! Better enjoy this next 2-3 weeks gang cause I see plenty sleepless nights ahead.
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: (CSU July update at noon EDT)
SFLcane wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/E7ogdtV.jpg
Wow!!! Better enjoy this next 2-3 weeks gang cause I see plenty sleepless nights ahead.
Fine by me
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- toad strangler
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413168499292319749
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413169757415788545
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413171518960390148
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413169757415788545
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413171518960390148
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- toad strangler
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4
When does NOAA do their update? I think heading into August ...
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4
toad strangler wrote:When does NOAA do their update? I think heading into August ...
NOAA be like 9-13 hurricanes and 5-7 majors lol with 26 named storms total.
Bank on it
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4
Is the August update the last one? I got a little taken by surprise with this one.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4
AnnularCane wrote:Is the August update the last one? I got a little taken by surprise with this one.
On August 5 the last one by CSU.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4
The CSU forecast now perfectly matches the TSR forecast.
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