ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa loves her land

[Vdogg]

Looks like the llc took a little slight jog east. That outta juice things up a bit.

[AnnularCane]

Elsa loves her land

I just hope this doesn't become a thing for them, or even I might be in trouble.

[aspen]

If the 12z GFS is right, I may get dumped with 3-5 inches of rain. Ugh

[AlphaToOmega]

Tropical Storm Elsa is currently intensifying over land. While it is unlikely Tropical Storm Elsa will regain hurricane status, it is expected to remain tropical until it reaches Canada. Next week, Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa is expected to dissipate over the far Northern Atlantic.

Inclement weather will occur over the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions of the United States, and it will also occur over the Maritime Provinces in Canada. NOAA forecasts at least 2 inches of rain for most of the aforementioned regions of the United States and Canada. According to the forecast, parts of New York and Connecticut could see as much as 6 inches of rain. The GFS confirms this. There is a slight risk of flash flooding for the Mid-Atlantic, New England, and the Maritime Provinces; but parts of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine are given a moderate chance of flash flooding (20%-50%). Parts of North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland have chances of receiving tornadoes as high as 5%.

Looking at the mesoscale models, the NAM forecasts hurricane-force winds 1500 meters high in some parts of the Mid-Atlantic, New England, and the Maritime Provinces; and tropical-storm-force winds 1500 meters high in much of the aforementioned regions. 10 meters above the surface, the NAM generally forecasts tropical-depression-force winds, but Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard could see tropical-storm-force winds should this verify. The HRRR tells a similar story.

[Vdogg]

Not too much going on here yet, though we had a pretty decent squall earlier. That said, from looking at satellite it's hard for me to see how we're going to get the type of rain and wind we're supposed to get unless it completely exits the coast and fills in the back end. I know they said our heavy weather is going to be later tonight, but it appears that we might be clear of it within the next hour or two. Strange storm.

[aspen]

I got hit with a pretty bad thunderstorm from one of Elsa’s outer band. Lost power for a few seconds and then spent over an hour cleaning water out of the basement. The next 18 hours are gonna be so much fun…

[Evenstar]

Not too much going on here yet, though We had a pretty decent squall earlier. That said, from looking at satellite it's hard for me to see how we're going to get the type of rain and wind we're supposed to get unless it completely exits the coast and fills in the back end. I know they said our heavy weather is going to be later tonight, but it appears that we might be clear of it within the next hour or two. Strange storm.

Yeah, not much going on here. As the Brits like to say, it has been a bit of a damp squib.

[Vdogg]

I think we'll get some back end wind once it exits the coast and starts powering up, typical nor'easter style. But beyond that, I think the rain may be pretty much a non-event.

[AlphaToOmega]

In 2011, Tropical Storm Irene knocked down an entire tree in my hard (my house was not damaged, though). Hopefully, that does not happen this time; however, given the fact that Tropical Storm Elsa is intensifying over land, it just might.

[aspen]

Hey Elsa, please don’t be a somehow still strengthening 50 kt cyclone while passing close to Connecticut.

[AlphaToOmega]

I am so ready for when Elsa becomes a Category V hurricane over Greenland

[Vdogg]

Every time I'm just about to give up on Elsa convection starts blowing up. Unbelievable.

[Hurricane Mike]

Strengthened over land! Crazy!

[Hurricane Mike]

Here's an evening video update on Elsa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTMNSAIQ9jE

[Vdogg]

Well, it's certainly no Matthew but we're now under our 2nd tornado warning. Rains been steady for the last hour, moderate wind.

[Vdogg]

Convection is being blown to the NE. LLC is moving due east hugging the VA/NC state line. Should be back over water in 2-3 hours.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh ok, so it looks like Elsa strengthened over land. Wow, you know, I personally would not be surprised at this point if next week we have a Category 5 Hurricane Elsa hitting Iceland!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413305040647884803

[AlphaToOmega]

Something that I am surprised has not been brought up is the possibility of Elsa affecting Europe as a European windstorm.