Late Season ATL storm (Eastern Caribbean) --- be on guard --

[Stormsfury]

The Canadian sure thinks so ... at least the 00z run does ... and the 18z NOGAPS comes on board as well with the hint of development ... however, basing on the trends the last couple of days ... the development, obviously will be further west than the Cape Verde region ... (that is IF anything substantial develops) ... it'll be the wave that we're currently viewing, but the vorticity doesn't seriously begin to spinup until it gets closer to the Windward Islands ...

Let's break it down and dissect what I've to work with tonight ...

The operational 00z CMC has quite a system in the ATL ... this is the 14 panel, 10 day 00z CMC run ... and if you'll notice next FRIDAY (Nov. 14th), the operational CMC depicts a 984MB LOW moving N or NNE after moving WNW/NW for a time ... the 00z CMC run at the PSU site also paints quite a scenario as well to tie the pieces together where the meteocentre panels leave out ... the 00z CMC takes the developing system RIGHT OVER PUERTO RICO and begins to deepen the system and linger in the Bahamas for a short time, then gets pulled N with a deepening low in Eastern Canada as that system is progged to go NEG TILT.

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif

00z CMC MSLP animated run ...
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

00z CMC 925mb Vorticity Loop spells the closing off of the system ...
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

The 00z CMC ensembles also give the operational some support for a development of a tropical system as well ... CMC10 is definitely quite interesting and further NW with the system before recurvature just off the Florida/Southeast Coast, with the normally extreme CMC4 also depicting quite a storm but safely off the Southeastern Coast ... CMC2 paints an equally scary, or even scarier scenario with the system coming WAY too close to SE Florida and then shooting right up the Eastern Seaboard ...
But remember, do not pay attention to these precise details at this time, but the overall big picture and pattern ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

The 18z NOGAPS looking strikingly similar to the 00z CMC in regards to the vorticity spinup signature and development in the Central/Eastern Caribbean ... the 12z UKMET is more flat and keeps a weaker system moving rapidly across the Caribbean but also completely looks like it's misinterpreting what the other models are suggesting quite a strong ATL ridge ... and the 12z GFS also strongly shows a strong 950mb vortcity signature in the Eastern ATL, but gets sheared out before reaching the islands ...

12z GFS 950mb vorticity signature ...
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

Bottom line in the short term ... especially in the Eastern Caribbean ... keep your eyes peeled very closely out in the East Atlantic ...

SF

[rainstorm]

that would be quite unusual for nov, though the overall pattern is looking summer like

[Josephine96]

A late season November storm would be quite the way to end the year. The season is closing in on the end. After today we will be down to 23 days

[dixiebreeze]

Don't know about the rest of Florida, but it's been miserably hot and humid here in the WC area. The endless summer this year. Another tropical storm wouldn't surprise me in the least -- especially with that strong ridge.

[Stormsfury]

Don't know about the rest of Florida, but it's been miserably hot and humid here in the WC area. The endless summer this year. Another tropical storm wouldn't surprise me in the least -- especially with that strong ridge.

Dixie, my area (near Charleston) has just missed the all-time November record by 1º two straight days in a row and it's been 80º or above for 7 consecutive days ... (Both 87º readings shattered the old records by 3 and 4 degrees respectively) ... even worse, heat indicies have been in the mid/upper 90's with a 102º in NBC (Beaufort, SC, yesterday, with an 81º dewpoint - 86º Temp) ... The ridge only gets budged and continues in the Western Atlantic through the period ... and that's only part of the reasoning why I'm more bullish with this potential scenario ... the pattern looks fairly ripe ...

SF

[Josephine96]

We've been warm and wet here. Temperatures here have been in the mid 80's with a lot of rain lately but it's been incredibly humid

[dixiebreeze]

"Ripe" sums up the pattern just right, stormsfury. Keep monitoring and keep us posted. Thank as always for your informative input.

[JCT777]

Something certainly could develop. I will be surprised if there is not at least 1 named storm that comes out of this pattern.