2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

I thought July 8 is when people are supposed to talk about how SAL is plaguing the Atlantic and how nothing will develop in the peak season because of that?

The fact that such conversations are not happening is already quite alarming. Especially when many people expect a busy late July and early August with several MDR systems after the suppressed CCKW is over, despite climo saying otherwise.

Here's how it goes:

1. By July 8, how many storms have there been? If 4 or less, do not proceed and immediately cancel season.
5 have formed.

2. By July 8, what is the total ACE score? If at least slightly below average for what should be expected at this point, do not proceed and immediately cancel season.
ACE so far is 10, which is way above the average.

3. By July 8, has there been a hurricane in the MDR? If no, do not proceed and immediately cancel season.
Elsa, became a Category 1 and made landfall over Barbados.

4. By July 8, did that MDR hurricane fail to become a Category 4 or 5 hurricane (remember, in order for this season to be active, it must be a 2005 repeat and feature a very powerful July storm)! If yes, do not proceed and immediately cancel season.
SEASON HAS BEEN CANCELED. 2021 WILL NOT BE A BAD SEASON. END OF DISCUSSION.

[cycloneye]

I thought July 8 is when people are supposed to talk about how SAL is plaguing the Atlantic and how nothing will develop in the peak season because of that?

The fact that such conversations are not happening is already quite alarming. Especially when many people expect a busy late July and early August with several MDR systems after the suppressed CCKW is over, despite climo saying otherwise.

Here's how it goes:

1. By July 8, how many storms have there been? If 4 or less, do not proceed and immediately cancel season.
5 have formed.

2. By July 8, what is the total ACE score? If at least slightly below average for what should be expected at this point, do not proceed and immediately cancel season.
ACE so far is 10, which is way above the average.

3. By July 8, has there been a hurricane in the MDR? If no, do not proceed and immediately cancel season.
Elsa, became a Category 1 and made landfall over Barbados.

4. By July 8, did that MDR hurricane fail to become a Category 4 or 5 hurricane (remember, in order for this season to be active, it must be a 2005 repeat and feature a very powerful July storm)! If yes, do not proceed and immediately cancel season.
SEASON HAS BEEN CANCELED. 2021 WILL NOT BE A BAD SEASON. END OF DISCUSSION.

ACE for North Atlantic as of 11 PM is 12.4 units.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1413317536528142339

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1413317536528142339?s=21

Mother Nature: "So, 2021, how strong do you want the velocity signature over the West Coast of Africa to be?"

2021: "Yes."

[IsabelaWeather]

I thought July 8 is when people are supposed to talk about how SAL is plaguing the Atlantic and how nothing will develop in the peak season because of that?

The fact that such conversations are not happening is already quite alarming. Especially when many people expect a busy late July and early August with several MDR systems after the suppressed CCKW is over, despite climo saying otherwise.

There has been some noticeable SAL here in PR but nothing like normal. Way less than Ive seen since I got here a few year ago. Should be interesting

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1413189003176710148



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1413190687382810624



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1413221264240660484



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1413223143578161156



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1413224915063480320



 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1413236469234294788



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1413237747595321347

[cycloneye]

Yeah, I and other members of S2K live in the Caribbean. Less recurves.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1413511509230161923

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1413524075805347842

[cycloneye]

SFLCane You are 50/50 on active MDR?

[aspen]

Yeah, I and other members of S2K live in the Caribbean. Less recurves.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1413511509230161923

That shockingly looks really dry…perhaps too dry. The seemingly less conductive moisture outlook for 2021 is the only major thing I see in the way of an active season, although a dry MDR isn’t going to do anything to stop a wave that waits until the Caribbean to develop and go nuclear.

[SFLcane]

SFLCane You are 50/50 on active MDR?

Hey Luis, You know something in my opinion that’s just not an active look. Florida’s signal as could be a front or something else not necessarily a tc. It’s been quite sometime since I have seen so many mixed signals

[aspen]

SFLCane You are 50/50 on active MDR?

Hey Luis, You know something in my opinion that’s just not an active look. Florida’s signal as could be a front or something else not necessarily a tc. It’s been quite sometime since I have seen so many mixed signals

If 2018 of all seasons can manage to produce a MDR system that peaks as a Cat 4 twice and crosses the entire ocean from Cape Verde to North Carolina — despite having a very unfavorable looking MDR and an unusually quiet August — then 2021 should be able to produce at least one decent MDR hurricane. Yeah it’s looking rather dry, but like 2018, the WAM will dominate and there was an early July western MDR hurricane (Beryl ‘18, Elsa ‘21).

[Category5Kaiju]

I wonder if the dry MDR is the result of the model having some trouble trying to assess the extremely potent Atlantic Nino (which if I am not mistaken is the first time in recent years that such a signal appeared) pushing activity further south of what would typically be expected in a given year and interpreting that as waves not coming off of the usual latitudes.

[SFLcane]

I wonder if the dry MDR is the result of the model having some trouble trying to assess the extremely potent Atlantic Nino (which if I am not mistaken is the first time in recent years that such a signal appeared) pushing activity further south of what would typically be expected in a given year and interpreting that as waves not coming off of the usual latitudes.

Yes that’s certainly possible!

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1413524075805347842

There is no way those dry precip progs hold water (see what I did there) IF the 200 hPa velocity maps we keep seeing are to believed. So, ya, there WILL be some busting going on. Of course we just don't know which side!

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1413524075805347842

I can already tell you that this model is probably going to be wrong. It is showing drier weather for my region. This has been one of the wettest summers in probably 20-30 years right now. The semi-permanent pattern has been weaknesses over the Southern Plains while ridges have been to the west and east. Maybe this pattern will change, but I have real doubts since I recall one of these models showing drying over my region in the past and it failed to materialize.

[Shell Mound]

Yeah, I and other members of S2K live in the Caribbean. Less recurves.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1413511509230161923

If that dry MDR holds, then maybe South FL will feature less of a threat of a MH (especially Cat-4+), given climatology. Most of the Cat-4+ hurricanes to strike South FL originated in the MDR and tracked over/near the Leeward Islands via the infamous Hebert Box #1. There could be a threat of a MH from the south via Hebert Box #2 in the Caribbean, especially in October, but such a storm would need to interact with western Cuba or the Yucatán Peninsula and would thus be less likely to be a Cat-4+ by the time it reaches South FL, unlike a classic MDR-type system heading WNW through Hebert Box #1. Michael had an advantage, unlike Wilma, because it managed to stay over the Yucatán Channel, a very narrow conduit.

[Stormybajan]

Yeah, I and other members of S2K live in the Caribbean. Less recurves.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1413511509230161923

Ugh thats a not a good sign at all (atleast for us in the Lesser Antilies). However surely that model is showing the MDR a bit TOO dry. I dont see any reason for it to be so dry given how strong the waves coming off Africa in June and July have looked so far...Given we've already had Elsa. Im getting more and more concerned of a powerful Hurricane like Hurricane Dean, Hurricane Flora or Hurricane Ivan tracking through the islands in peak season

[cycloneye]

Yeah, I and other members of S2K live in the Caribbean. Less recurves.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1413511509230161923

Ugh thats a not a good sign at all (atleast for us in the Lesser Antilies). However surely that model is showing the MDR a bit TOO dry. I dont see any reason for it to be so dry given how strong the waves coming off Africa in June and July have looked so far...Given we've already had Elsa. Im getting more and more concerned of a powerful Hurricane like Hurricane Dean, Hurricane Flora or Hurricane Ivan tracking through the islands in peak season

Imagine a cat 4 like Allen 1980.

[Shell Mound]

HurricaneCity.com’s predictions seem to be verifying quite well once again (they were very accurate in 2020):

My picks for the 2021 season released on June 1st for a named storm affecting certain areas. (subjective to wind fields giving areas TS force winds plus) (yellowed locations indicate they were affected ).

VERY HIGH THREAT....... Wilmington, North Carolina.(ts Elsa br) .... Cayman Islands... .... Belize... .... Negril, Jamaica... .... Homosassa, Florida.(Elsa tsbr)
MODERATE THREAT....... Ceday Key, Florida.(ts Elsa) .... Kingston, Jamaica(ts Elsa br) .... Vero bch, Florida..... .... Antigua..... .... Cape Cod, Massachusetts..... .... Eleuthera Island, Bahamas..... .... Steinhatchee, Florida.(Elsa ts) .... Ft Lauderdale, Florida..... .... Savannah, Georgia (ts Elsa) .... Beaufort, South Carolina.(ts Danny) (ts Elsa br) .... Bimini, Bahamas..... .... Dominica(Hurricane Elsa br) .... Martinique(Hurricane Elsa br) .... Tampico, Mexico..... .... Oviedo,Dominican Republic (TS Elsa)
Blog post about predictions | Map of potential tracks | video

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