BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
...ELSA APPROACHING CHESAPEAKE BAY...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 76.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Surf City,
North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa
will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight and move
near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday
night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night
and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through
Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mostly southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow station on Pamlico
Sound recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) gusting
to 58 mph (93 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
mid-Atlantic coast overnight. These winds will spread northward in
the warning area over the northeastern states on Friday.
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:
Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England...2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible
through Friday, which could result in limited flash and urban
flooding for the northern Mid-Atlantic States and considerable flash
and urban flooding in New England. Isolated minor river flooding is
also expected.
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible overnight along the
Mid-Atlantic coast.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
Elsa has become slightly better organized this evening.
Convection near the center of Elsa has deepened, and the surface
pressures have fallen a few mb since this afternoon based on
observations over eastern Virginia. Although there are no wind
reports above 40 kt during the past several hours, recent
Doppler velocity data shows stronger winds offshore of the
mid-Atlantic states, so the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt.
It appears that the early stages of extratropical transition
have begun with Elsa, with almost all of the deep convection north
of the center. A shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes should
cause the storm to deepen on Friday but also expand in size,
resulting in the maximum winds staying about the same as they are
now. Elsa should transition into an extratropical cyclone within
24 hours due to the shortwave and cold waters south of New England,
and then gradually weaken over Atlantic Canada and northeast of
Newfoundland after it loses its baroclinic support. The new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the consensus
of the global models.
The storm is moving faster to the northeast this evening and will
gradually accelerate northeastward during the next day or two due
to speedy mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern North America. Elsa
should move over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within
the next 12-36 hours. The model guidance remains tightly packed on
that solution, and the new official track forecast remains close to
the previous one.
Key Messages:
1. As Elsa moves across the eastern mid-Atlantic overnight, heavy
rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy
rainfall across New England through Friday could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.
2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the
mid-Atlantic coast overnight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in portions of the southern New England states and New
York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic
Canada Friday night and Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 37.6N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/1200Z 40.5N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/0000Z 44.6N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1200Z 49.4N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0000Z 54.5N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/1200Z 58.5N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
...ELSA APPROACHING CHESAPEAKE BAY...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 76.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Surf City,
North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa
will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight and move
near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday
night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night
and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through
Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mostly southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow station on Pamlico
Sound recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) gusting
to 58 mph (93 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
mid-Atlantic coast overnight. These winds will spread northward in
the warning area over the northeastern states on Friday.
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:
Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England...2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible
through Friday, which could result in limited flash and urban
flooding for the northern Mid-Atlantic States and considerable flash
and urban flooding in New England. Isolated minor river flooding is
also expected.
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible overnight along the
Mid-Atlantic coast.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
Elsa has become slightly better organized this evening.
Convection near the center of Elsa has deepened, and the surface
pressures have fallen a few mb since this afternoon based on
observations over eastern Virginia. Although there are no wind
reports above 40 kt during the past several hours, recent
Doppler velocity data shows stronger winds offshore of the
mid-Atlantic states, so the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt.
It appears that the early stages of extratropical transition
have begun with Elsa, with almost all of the deep convection north
of the center. A shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes should
cause the storm to deepen on Friday but also expand in size,
resulting in the maximum winds staying about the same as they are
now. Elsa should transition into an extratropical cyclone within
24 hours due to the shortwave and cold waters south of New England,
and then gradually weaken over Atlantic Canada and northeast of
Newfoundland after it loses its baroclinic support. The new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the consensus
of the global models.
The storm is moving faster to the northeast this evening and will
gradually accelerate northeastward during the next day or two due
to speedy mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern North America. Elsa
should move over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within
the next 12-36 hours. The model guidance remains tightly packed on
that solution, and the new official track forecast remains close to
the previous one.
Key Messages:
1. As Elsa moves across the eastern mid-Atlantic overnight, heavy
rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy
rainfall across New England through Friday could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.
2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the
mid-Atlantic coast overnight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in portions of the southern New England states and New
York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic
Canada Friday night and Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 37.6N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/1200Z 40.5N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/0000Z 44.6N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1200Z 49.4N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0000Z 54.5N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/1200Z 58.5N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake