2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

Just curious, but is it necessarily true that a lower latitude a storm originates at least in the open Atlantic ocean, the less likely it will recurve?

[MississippiWx]

I really have a hard time believing MDR activity will be significantly above average when the MDR is constantly neutral to negative SST anomalies. At the same time, the formation of Elsa and another couple of areas of interest so early in the season sends up red flags as that it WILL be active. Definitely conflicting signals. The rising motion over Africa certainly looks like last season, but last season also had SST anomalies much above average in the MDR. Sea surface temps are only one factor, so we will see just how significant they are as the season progresses.

[Shell Mound]

I really have a hard time believing MDR activity will be significantly above average when the MDR is constantly neutral to negative SST anomalies. At the same time, the formation of Elsa and another couple of areas of interest so early in the season sends up red flags as that it WILL be active. Definitely conflicting signals. The rising motion over Africa certainly looks like last season, but last season also had SST anomalies much above average in the MDR. Sea surface temps are only one factor, so we will see just how significant they are as the season progresses.

The same NMME was also forecasting a much more active MDR last year than actually occurred. Had one relied solely on SST and other indicators, one would have predicted multiple long-tracking majors in the MDR, yet only Teddy materialised. So the warm SST and favourable -VE anomalies last year did not result in the kind of CV season one might have expected. Perhaps this year we will see the opposite: both models and forecasters, following indicators, may end up underestimating activity in the MDR.

[Category5Kaiju]

I really have a hard time believing MDR activity will be significantly above average when the MDR is constantly neutral to negative SST anomalies. At the same time, the formation of Elsa and another couple of areas of interest so early in the season sends up red flags as that it WILL be active. Definitely conflicting signals. The rising motion over Africa certainly looks like last season, but last season also had SST anomalies much above average in the MDR. Sea surface temps are only one factor, so we will see just how significant they are as the season progresses.

Yeah I agree, although if you really think about it one would have thought that 2020 would be a large MDR year given its crazy sst anomalies there, but it only had one major hurricane there with most of the storms there weak (this had a lot to do with the massive dust plumes that constantly plagued the MDR). Even 2005 would be a year that had crazy sst anomalies in the MDR but lacked very significant storms there. If you ask me personally I think what could end up happening is that we get a bunch of storms that originate at lower than usual latitudes, and this could very well explain why the MDR is so dry but we've been seeing open Atlantic deep tropic activity so frequently and early in this season so far. Thanks Atlantic Nino.

[captainbarbossa19]

HurricaneCity.com’s predictions seem to be verifying quite well once again (they were very accurate in 2020):

My picks for the 2021 season released on June 1st for a named storm affecting certain areas. (subjective to wind fields giving areas TS force winds plus) (yellowed locations indicate they were affected ).

VERY HIGH THREAT....... Wilmington, North Carolina.(ts Elsa br) .... Cayman Islands... .... Belize... .... Negril, Jamaica... .... Homosassa, Florida.(Elsa tsbr)
MODERATE THREAT....... Ceday Key, Florida.(ts Elsa) .... Kingston, Jamaica(ts Elsa br) .... Vero bch, Florida..... .... Antigua..... .... Cape Cod, Massachusetts..... .... Eleuthera Island, Bahamas..... .... Steinhatchee, Florida.(Elsa ts) .... Ft Lauderdale, Florida..... .... Savannah, Georgia (ts Elsa) .... Beaufort, South Carolina.(ts Danny) (ts Elsa br) .... Bimini, Bahamas..... .... Dominica(Hurricane Elsa br) .... Martinique(Hurricane Elsa br) .... Tampico, Mexico..... .... Oviedo,Dominican Republic (TS Elsa)
Blog post about predictions | Map of potential tracks | video
http://www.hurricanecity.com/images/2021trackpredictions.jpg

Source

I find it odd that he has no Northwestern Gulf tracks. Perhaps he is thinking ridging over the Southern Plains is going to prevent storms? I really do not see that happening right now. This wet pattern is going to make it difficult for any ridge to develop and stay for long periods.

[AlphaToOmega]

To me, it seems like 2021 is just 2020 but delayed.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1413578619641806849




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1413578998400135168

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/spann/status/1413582034203824134

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/spann/status/1413582034203824134

5 days? Next 2-3 weeks not expecting anything to develop until late July or early August.

[SFLcane]

Like I have been expressing with 15/8/4 to go If something develops this year look out. Folks this is as prime as it gets for Florida threats.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1413583745144197131

[Chris90]

That precipitation anomaly forecast that Ben Noll posted has its uses, but I would just look at it as a simple tool giving you a general idea of future tracks. I think the most reasonable idea you can extrapolate from that is that we'll continue to see waves come off Africa and traverse the Atlantic at a lower latitude than what's been typical the past few years. I mean, going by its forecast for last year you would have expected a much more active MDR year, with didn't transpire. Teddy and Paulette were about it with a few weak storms sprinkled in, but it wasn't a 1995 or 2017.

The ssts are varying degrees above average throughout a good portion of the ATL including the MDR, and the Atlantic Niño is especially strong, which should help fuel increased MDR activity this year, which I think was already demonstrated with Elsa.

You can also get a feel for the way things are playing out by looking at the global tropics. In 2018, things were clearly favoring the Pacific, and it was obvious by July. This year, it's been fairly quiet across the entirety of the Pacific basin. There was Surigae back in April in the West Pacific which was impressive, but it's now July 9th, and none of the Pacific basins have exactly been firing off storm after storm, especially not intense ones like you would expect in a Pacific-favored year. With the expected return to La Niña, I'd chalk that up as another point favoring the ATL.

I know some see Elsa's inability to get to major as points against this season, but her intensity doesn't really matter to me. Her formation and hurricane entrance into the Caribbean in early July already puts this year in league with 1933 and 2005, and that to me is a big red flag.

Could this year end up below average/average? Absolutely, there's always a chance. I just think that chance is smaller than average this year.

I think the current indicators are mostly all pointing towards above average activity. With the Atlantic Niño setup and the ASW (African standing wave) being expected to return full force, possibly stronger than last year, I think there's a chance we see a Top 5 ACE season. This kind of configuration can potentially lead to Ivan-esque storms, with higher ACE generation due to intensity and a longer track.

[SFLcane]

2004?

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1413592431052820485

[toad strangler]

:crazyeyes: 2004?

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1413592431052820485

Man, Hazelton like to keep his analysis on the conservative side too

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/spann/status/1413582034203824134

That probably explains why the CDAS map is showing such extensive cool SST anomalies in the MDR.

[cycloneye]

There you have it SFLCane.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1413603006029783041

[St0rmTh0r]

:crazyeyes: 2004?

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1413592431052820485

Man, Hazelton like to keep his analysis on the conservative side too

I think all the patterns and signs point to Florida having the kind of action Louisiana had last year. Elsas track is more important than how strong she was. The same thing happened last year that showed the gulf was the hot spot now its florida.

[SFLcane]

:crazyeyes: 2004?

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1413592431052820485

Man, Hazelton like to keep his analysis on the conservative side too

I think all the patterns and signs point to Florida having the kind of action Louisiana had last year. Elsas track is more important than how strong she was. The same thing happened last year that showed the gulf was the hot spot now its florida.

[SFLcane]

:crazyeyes: 2004?

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1413592431052820485

Man, Hazelton like to keep his analysis on the conservative side too

I think all the patterns and signs point to Florida having the kind of action Louisiana had last year. Elsas track is more important than how strong she was. The same thing happened last year that showed the gulf was the hot spot now its florida.

Would like to know your reasoning for this if possible.

[CFLHurricane]

:crazyeyes: 2004?

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1413592431052820485

Man, Hazelton like to keep his analysis on the conservative side too

I think all the patterns and signs point to Florida having the kind of action Louisiana had last year. Elsas track is more important than how strong she was. The same thing happened last year that showed the gulf was the hot spot now its florida.

Please don’t tease us like this.

I concur this may be a wild season, but I prefer to head into peak with low expectations.

[SFLcane]

:crazyeyes: 2004?

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1413592431052820485

Man, Hazelton like to keep his analysis on the conservative side too

Yeah if you told me that z500 pattern was guaranteed to verify I would predict 2-4 Florida landfalls this year.