2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1413974372876886016




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1413974737919746048

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1413977824021540867

[aspen]

:eek:

http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1413974737919746048?s=21

Seems like the WAM/African Standing Wave will be in charge of this season, no matter if MDR SSTs are just average or slightly below average or if the dry MDR forecasts verify. That’s quite a scary look for when the suppressive CCKW finally moves out of the basin.

Favorable base state + likely return to cool ENSO + favorable enough MDR and low enough shear to allow for a July MDR hurricane + yet another overpowered WAM + a lower-latitude ITCZ = a guaranteed above-average season, even if the basin’s SST profile is nowhere near as impressive as 2005/2017/2020.

[SFLcane]

Ahh…. One can only imagine what mid August has the potential to look like across the Atlantic basin.

[hurricanes1234]

Ahh…. One can only imagine what mid August has the potential to look like across the Atlantic basin.

And even more so by mid-September.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm going to be very blunt here, but at this point I am beginning to wonder if 2021 will be a quantity AND quality season. My very preliminary guess as to what the storm traits and tracks will look like assuming the very wet Sahel does what we think it will do is a season with 2004, 2007, 2010, 2017, and 2020 vibes to it

[AlphaToOmega]

I'm going to be very blunt here, but at this point I am beginning to wonder if 2021 will be a quantity AND quality season. My very preliminary guess as to what the storm traits and tracks will look like assuming the very wet Sahel does what we think it will do is a season with 2004, 2007, 2010, 2017, and 2020 vibes to it

So...a 2005 repeat????

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm going to be very blunt here, but at this point I am beginning to wonder if 2021 will be a quantity AND quality season. My very preliminary guess as to what the storm traits and tracks will look like assuming the very wet Sahel does what we think it will do is a season with 2004, 2007, 2010, 2017, and 2020 vibes to it

So...a 2005 repeat????

With 4 Category 5 storms and activity concentrated in the Western Atlantic with little intense MDR storms? Not really envisioning a 2005 repeat per say, but long track, low latitude, powerful storms such as Allen, Ivan, Dean, Felix, or Iris may be featured this season.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1413997669438140418

[crownweather]

Check out the years Boston is going up against for record rainfall for July. ALL years had at least one major hurricane strike on the US coast.

 https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1413980133271113732

[Category5Kaiju]

Check out the years Boston is going up against for record rainfall for July. ALL years had at least one major hurricane strike on the US coast.

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1413980133271113732?s=19

That is a very sinister observation indeed. 1915 it was New Orleans, 1921 it was Tampa Bay, 1938 it was New England with Yankee Express, and 1959 it was Gracie in North Carolina...

[AlphaToOmega]

I see Elsa provided a nice distraction to the point where this thread started to season cancel cancel, but with it out of the picture now the season canceling has rapidly returned with a fury!

I think the season cancel posts will be on hold due to an invest in the Atlantic at the moment.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Check out the years Boston is going up against for record rainfall for July. ALL years had at least one major hurricane strike on the US coast.

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1413980133271113732?s=19

That is a very sinister observation indeed. 1915 it was New Orleans, 1921 it was Tampa Bay, 1938 it was New England with Yankee Express, and 1959 it was Gracie in North Carolina...

Oh wow 7 whole inches How about us in the gulf south. Here in Gonzales we have already met our yearly avg rainfall of 65” by the first week of July!! Anyone knows what that might have to do with gulf coast landfalls this year?

[AlphaToOmega]

Check out the years Boston is going up against for record rainfall for July. ALL years had at least one major hurricane strike on the US coast.

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1413980133271113732?s=19

That is a very sinister observation indeed. 1915 it was New Orleans, 1921 it was Tampa Bay, 1938 it was New England with Yankee Express, and 1959 it was Gracie in North Carolina...

Oh wow 7 whole inches How about us in the gulf south. Here in Gonzales we have already met our yearly avg rainfall of 65” by the first week of July!! Anyone knows what that might have to do with gulf coast landfalls this year?

I can tell you this much: last year had below-average precipitation in the Gulf of Mexico. You know what happened last year in spite of that.

[Category5Kaiju]

The bottom line is I would argue that you can have a season with warmer than average MDR sst anomalies, but wind shear and dry air can easily squash a season with potential otherwise. Look at 2013 and 2015 as examples. At one point both seasons had above average MDR sst anomalies, but wind shear and dry air have shown how in terms of limiting activity they are arguably the most potent limiting factors for a given season's potential compared to slightly cooler than average sst anomalies imho.

[AlphaToOmega]

The bottom line is I would argue that you can have a season with warmer than average MDR sst anomalies, but wind shear and dry air can easily squash a season with potential otherwise. Look at 2013 and 2015 as examples. At one point both seasons had above average MDR sst anomalies, but wind shear and dry air have shown how in terms of limiting activity they are arguably the most potent limiting factors for a given season's potential compared to slightly cooler than average sst anomalies imho.

That is why I think velocity potential anomalies are more useful than SSTs for judging the activity of a season. Warmer SSTs create rising air, and rising air makes the air more humid, and it also decreases wind shear. Velocity potential is a good general indicator. Both 2013 and 2015 had -VP anomalies over the East Pacific, which suppressed Atlantic activity (thermohaline circulation is also another reason why 2013 was inactive).

[Kingarabian]

The bottom line is I would argue that you can have a season with warmer than average MDR sst anomalies, but wind shear and dry air can easily squash a season with potential otherwise. Look at 2013 and 2015 as examples. At one point both seasons had above average MDR sst anomalies, but wind shear and dry air have shown how in terms of limiting activity they are arguably the most potent limiting factors for a given season's potential compared to slightly cooler than average sst anomalies imho.

2013 was a freak event and 2015 was a super El Nino though.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1413979914680901635

[captainbarbossa19]

Check out the years Boston is going up against for record rainfall for July. ALL years had at least one major hurricane strike on the US coast.

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1413980133271113732?s=19

That is a very sinister observation indeed. 1915 it was New Orleans, 1921 it was Tampa Bay, 1938 it was New England with Yankee Express, and 1959 it was Gracie in North Carolina...

Oh wow 7 whole inches How about us in the gulf south. Here in Gonzales we have already met our yearly avg rainfall of 65” by the first week of July!! Anyone knows what that might have to do with gulf coast landfalls this year?

Right? I don't think I have had that much yet this year, but I know that the majority of the rain for me has been since May 1st. I think I had about 10 inches in the past week. For June, I think I had about 15 or more. May had a ton too.

[captainbarbossa19]

Check out the years Boston is going up against for record rainfall for July. ALL years had at least one major hurricane strike on the US coast.

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1413980133271113732?s=19

That is a very sinister observation indeed. 1915 it was New Orleans, 1921 it was Tampa Bay, 1938 it was New England with Yankee Express, and 1959 it was Gracie in North Carolina...

Don't forget about the 1915 Galveston Hurricane. I hope there is no correlation.