ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

AL, 98, 2021071018, , BEST, 0, 407N, 641W, 35, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 40, 0, 0, 1014, 50, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, SPAWNINVEST, al732021 to al982021,

[tolakram]

AL, 98, 2021071018, , BEST, 0, 407N, 641W, 35, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 40, 0, 0, 1014, 50, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, SPAWNINVEST, al732021 to al982021,

A link is required to start an invest thread, where did you get this?

[AlphaToOmega]

AL, 98, 2021071018, , BEST, 0, 407N, 641W, 35, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 40, 0, 0, 1014, 50, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, SPAWNINVEST, al732021 to al982021,

A link is required to start an invest thread, where did you get this?

Here: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[tolakram]

Way up north I was trying to find this one. Showing up on the map now.

[ElectricStorm]

Wow an invest before being highlighted on the TWO. That doesn't happen much

[tolakram]

Isn't this the remnants of Elsa?

You can clearly see the LLC here: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

[AlphaToOmega]

I was on the Tropical Tidbits website, and then I read "Invest 98L". My first reaction was, "is this a bug?". I checked ftp.nhc.noaa.gov, and sure enough, it was there. It looks quite interesting on the satellite. The GFS and CMC try to develop it; whether it will develop, we cannot say. If development did occur, it would likely be subtropical given its latitude.

[AlphaToOmega]

Isn't this the remnants of Elsa?

You can clearly see the LLC here: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

If anything, this is probably just leftover energy from Elsa. The Remnants of Elsa are over the Labrador Sea.

[AlphaToOmega]

SSTs seems conducive enough for subtropical development, and tropical development is possible but unlikely.

[AnnularCane]

Could this maybe be one of those "test invests?" (I think that's what that is?)

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small area of low pressure is located less than 500 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Newfoundland, Canada. Earlier
satellite wind data indicated the system was producing gale force
winds to its southeast. However, shower and thunderstorm
activity near the system is disorganized and has diminished
some this evening. Additional development of this system is
unlikely while it accelerates to the northeast over increasingly
cool ocean waters. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin/Blake

[AlphaToOmega]

Here is the surface analysis:

[ElectricStorm]

I'll be shocked if this develops but at least we have something to track

[AlphaToOmega]

Currently the HWRF is not tracking Invest 98L as of now.

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small low pressure system located about 250 miles southwest of
Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing limited shower activity. The
low is forecast to continue accelerating northeastward over colder
ocean waters, and tropical cyclone development is not expected.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Stewart

AL, 98, 2021071100, , BEST, 0, 420N, 612W, 35, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 40, 0, 0, 1014, 50, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

This disturbance is still around

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=98L&product=ir

[InfernoFlameCat]

I thought we're supposed to be in a lull?

subtropical development is not inhibited by Mjo phase as much as the MDR. Also looks like this invest is going to be a nothing.