2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

Ah yes. It's that wonderful time of the year when we are in a suppressed state with little to no activity. As usual many "experts" are having doubts about peak season activity. I can tell you that I have seen this year after year. Do NOT trust any model projection a month away. For whatever reason, it seems like when the Atlantic is in a suppressed state, models often like to overextend the length and intensity of the pattern. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen the models show nothing a week before the tropics become active. In this case, I think that there will be an increase in activity towards August. Whether or not we see any hurricanes then remains to be seen, but I do not trust models and have seen them fail countless times when predicting changes with the MJO etc.

I'm not seeing anybody doubt peak season activity. Who are the experts are you talking about? What I do see, are some conflicting output from long range models that are creating discussion such as precip in the MDR or lack thereof but not in a way that is questioning overall season activity. Just chatter. Even around here, I can't remember the last time S2K has been so quiet on the "season cancel" posts in mid July. Most everyone in this hobby sees the active pro seasonal forecasts and understands we are in a suppressed background state right now and probably will be for the rest of the month. I feel that most hobbyists like me are sorta waiting for early to mid August and I'm waiting for that final NOAA update just before that. Meanwhile we keep an eye on SST's and SAL while gleaning as much as we can from the disco going on in pro met social media world in regards to these seasonal and often flawed long range models.

[NDG]

Is going to be fairly dusty over central and southern FL over the next couple of days.
After this passes later this week the dust will clear out nicely over the western Atlantic basin this weekend for a few days.

[InfernoFlameCat]

My Sudan wave will emerge soon.(one I have been watching for a week) The models do nothing with it yet though.
The Sal will clear soon and things will get active

[AnnularCane]

My Sudan wave will emerge soon.(one I have been watching for a week) The models do nothing with it yet though.
The Sal will clear soon and things will get active

You've been watching a wave for a week and haven't said anything? Details!

[Category5Kaiju]

There's a 10% region in the subtropics now. To be honest, I am not surprised at all given how in recent years we've had so many weak but surprise storms form in the subtropics.

[wxman57]

There's a 10% region in the subtropics now. To be honest, I am not surprised at all given how in recent years we've had so many weak but surprise storms form in the subtropics.

I looked at that. The NHC forecaster says "several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland". However, the location is about 900 miles south-southwest of Cape Race. A 10% chance may be about 10% too high. Enjoy the quiet next couple of weeks, I am. Taking most of this week off (accrued 7 comp days during Elsa).

[aspen]

Strange how the NHC has been highlighting these areas in the subtropics with zero model support for development. I guess they’re as bored as we are during this suppressed phase.

[AlphaToOmega]

Strange how the NHC has been highlighting these areas in the subtropics with zero model support for development. I guess they’re as bored as we are during this suppressed phase.

Extratropical lows can spin up into storms without model support.

[Category5Kaiju]

Strange how the NHC has been highlighting these areas in the subtropics with zero model support for development. I guess they’re as bored as we are during this suppressed phase.

Usually during these suppressed Atlantic phases I try to avoid boredom by resorting to tracking EPAC storms (and trying to see if one would ever come close to my hometown of Phoenix and bring much needed rain) , although I do understand others usually tend to stick to tracking one basin (with the Atlantic a clearly popular one). Of course the Atlantic is the more commonly tracked basin due to how many of its storms can easily threaten land (particularly the US) compared to the EPAC (the EPAC has had merely 15 retired names while the Atlantic has had 93!), but I do remember quite a few trackers who typically focus on the Atlantic turning their attention to the EPAC when storms like Lane or Douglas occurred and almost hit Hawaii.

[captainbarbossa19]

Ah yes. It's that wonderful time of the year when we are in a suppressed state with little to no activity. As usual many "experts" are having doubts about peak season activity. I can tell you that I have seen this year after year. Do NOT trust any model projection a month away. For whatever reason, it seems like when the Atlantic is in a suppressed state, models often like to overextend the length and intensity of the pattern. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen the models show nothing a week before the tropics become active. In this case, I think that there will be an increase in activity towards August. Whether or not we see any hurricanes then remains to be seen, but I do not trust models and have seen them fail countless times when predicting changes with the MJO etc.

I'm not seeing anybody doubt peak season activity. Who are the experts are you talking about? What I do see, are some conflicting output from long range models that are creating discussion such as precip in the MDR or lack thereof but not in a way that is questioning overall season activity. Just chatter. Even around here, I can't remember the last time S2K has been so quiet on the "season cancel" posts in mid July. Most everyone in this hobby sees the active pro seasonal forecasts and understands we are in a suppressed background state right now and probably will be for the rest of the month. I feel that most hobbyists like me are sorta waiting for early to mid August and I'm waiting for that final NOAA update just before that. Meanwhile we keep an eye on SST's and SAL while gleaning as much as we can from the disco going on in pro met social media world in regards to these seasonal and often flawed long range models.

You are right. They are not directly doubting the peak season yet. Give the experts time though. They will come around. It usually happens in early to mid-August whenever the models show nothing for 7-10 days.

You may wonder why I am so critical of them though. It is simply because I know that they do not know everything. I have seen them waver much in the past. Too many people place too much value in their opinions when it is usually just an educated guess. Not every expert is like this, but I see too many post information that is contrary to their original position of a season. For example, one long-range model run comes out that says peak season is quiet, contrary to multiple runs suggesting that a season will be active. Instead of doubting the one run, some "experts" will give too much credit to it and doubt the other runs just because it was the latest run of the model. I would rather stick to an original argument than constantly go back and forth. Doing the latter is not very professional in my opinion. I do not mind if an expert changes his/her opinion, but I consider their opinion much more if it is based on more than one factor over a long period of time.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ah yes. It's that wonderful time of the year when we are in a suppressed state with little to no activity. As usual many "experts" are having doubts about peak season activity. I can tell you that I have seen this year after year. Do NOT trust any model projection a month away. For whatever reason, it seems like when the Atlantic is in a suppressed state, models often like to overextend the length and intensity of the pattern. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen the models show nothing a week before the tropics become active. In this case, I think that there will be an increase in activity towards August. Whether or not we see any hurricanes then remains to be seen, but I do not trust models and have seen them fail countless times when predicting changes with the MJO etc.

I'm not seeing anybody doubt peak season activity. Who are the experts are you talking about? What I do see, are some conflicting output from long range models that are creating discussion such as precip in the MDR or lack thereof but not in a way that is questioning overall season activity. Just chatter. Even around here, I can't remember the last time S2K has been so quiet on the "season cancel" posts in mid July. Most everyone in this hobby sees the active pro seasonal forecasts and understands we are in a suppressed background state right now and probably will be for the rest of the month. I feel that most hobbyists like me are sorta waiting for early to mid August and I'm waiting for that final NOAA update just before that. Meanwhile we keep an eye on SST's and SAL while gleaning as much as we can from the disco going on in pro met social media world in regards to these seasonal and often flawed long range models.

You are right. They are not directly doubting the peak season yet. Give the experts time though. They will come around. It usually happens in early to mid-August whenever the models show nothing for 7-10 days.

You may wonder why I am so critical of them though. It is simply because I know that they do not know everything. I have seen them waver much in the past. Too many people place too much value in their opinions when it is usually just an educated guess. Not every expert is like this, but I see too many post information that is contrary to their original position of a season. For example, one long-range model run comes out that says peak season is quiet, contrary to multiple runs suggesting that a season will be active. Instead of doubting the one run, some "experts" will give too much credit to it and doubt the other runs just because it was the latest run of the model. I would rather stick to an original argument than constantly go back and forth. Doing the latter is not very professional in my opinion. I do not mind if an expert changes his/her opinion, but I consider their opinion much more if it is based on more than one factor over a long period of time.

Also I think it is worth noting that nothing in the tropics is definite and that things can change in the blink of an eye. For example, I have seen in the recent past how a season could feature zero activity one week, only for three named storms to pop up within a span of the next 7 days and surprise many individuals who never expected such to happen. On the other hand, we could have a storm like Delta barreling toward what we all thought was highly likely Category 5 strength, only for it to suddenly succumb to a sudden increase in mid-level shear. There's a lot that goes on and can go on in the tropics, and what I look for and rely on is pretty simple: people who are able to articulate and explain with relevant, well-founded bodies of evidence, in a consistent and direct manner, why they believe certain predictions.

[AlphaToOmega]

The latest operational GFS wants the extratropical low in the Atlantic to develop.

[Category5Kaiju]

The latest operational GFS wants the extratropical low in the Atlantic to develop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021071312/gfs_mslpa_atl_4.png

Hmm, idk at least according to that run 1019 mbar is quite high for a TC, but then again how many times in the past has the GFS underestimated the existences and intensities of these kinds of pop up systems? Also that is a very interesting ridging position; that ridging position is something we definitely do not want come August and September.

[GrayLancer18]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1415025686218117126

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1415025686218117126

An average year included in Phil K’s analogs. For me personally something does not jive here especially with all that risen motion over Africa.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1415025686218117126

Ok, so the models think the "new MDR" will be dragged to the south with a very dry regular MDR region? That's interesting to say the least.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1415025686218117126

An average year included in Phil K’s analogs. For me personally something does not jive here especially with all that risen motion over Africa.

I definitely think the models are having some trouble trying to make sense out of this very strong Atlantic Nino. That's a very weird setup to put in simply. I guess what could make sense though is more waves developing at low latitudes? Idk though, I'll be eager to see what actually happens.

[AlphaToOmega]

For the first time in MANY decades (at the very least), Venezuela and Panama might be at risk of hurricanes.

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1415025686218117126

An average year included in Phil K’s analogs. For me personally something does not jive here especially with all that risen motion over Africa.

I definitely think the models are having some trouble trying to make sense out of this very strong Atlantic Nino. That's a very weird setup to put in simply. I guess what could make sense though is more waves developing at low latitudes? Idk though, I'll be eager to see what actually happens.

Yes, that's really the interesting part. Seeing what actually happens.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1415025686218117126

An average year included in Phil K’s analogs. For me personally something does not jive here especially with all that risen motion over Africa.

Something does not seem right at all. Record precipitation in Africa, another year with a strong WAM/ASW, and a very early MDR hurricane all point to an enhanced MDR…yet the climo models are showing a dry and suppressed MDR? Every other year with a hurricane around Elsa’s location was above-average to hyperactive, many of which had significant MDR activity. It would be unheard of for such a signal of enhanced activity to be suddenly reversed mere weeks later, especially when compared to the select group of seasons 2021 is now a part of. It’s also strange that all of these signals are occurring in a year with an average to slightly cooler than average MDR (so kind of like 2018, actually).

Something is going to massively bust this year: either the really high pro met forecast numbers, or the model forecasts for a dry tropical Atlantic. It’s so bizarre how the Euro is forecasting both an above-average season and a dry MDR. There’s some factor that’s either confusing the models or will suddenly lead to unfavorable factors despite another -ENSO coming soon.