2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Yellow Evan]

Let’s not forget how terrible of a track record ECMWF and other climate models have when forecasting Atlantic activity.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1415025686218117126

An average year included in Phil K’s analogs. For me personally something does not jive here especially with all that risen motion over Africa.

Something does not seem right at all. Record precipitation in Africa, another year with a strong WAM/ASW, and a very early MDR hurricane all point to an enhanced MDR…yet the climo models are showing a dry and suppressed MDR? Every other year with a hurricane around Elsa’s location was above-average to hyperactive, many of which had significant MDR activity. It would be unheard of for such a signal of enhanced activity to be suddenly reversed mere weeks later, especially when compared to the select group of seasons 2021 is now a part of. It’s also strange that all of these signals are occurring in a year with an average to slightly cooler than average MDR (so kind of like 2018, actually).

Something is going to massively bust this year: either the really high pro met forecast numbers, or the model forecasts for a dry tropical Atlantic. It’s so bizarre how the Euro is forecasting both an above-average season and a dry MDR. There’s some factor that’s either confusing the models or will suddenly lead to unfavorable factors despite another -ENSO coming soon.

Let me put it this way: we are headed toward a likely -ENSO, we have a very strong WAM predicted to occur, sst anomalies are above average in the deep tropics with plentiful UOHC west of 50 W- all of these point toward a pretty active season. Maybe the question we should ask is why, or what exactly would be a plausible, likely to occur reason for the MDR to be that dry?

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1415025686218117126

An average year included in Phil K’s analogs. For me personally something does not jive here especially with all that risen motion over Africa.

Something does not seem right at all. Record precipitation in Africa, another year with a strong WAM/ASW, and a very early MDR hurricane all point to an enhanced MDR…yet the climo models are showing a dry and suppressed MDR? Every other year with a hurricane around Elsa’s location was above-average to hyperactive, many of which had significant MDR activity. It would be unheard of for such a signal of enhanced activity to be suddenly reversed mere weeks later, especially when compared to the select group of seasons 2021 is now a part of. It’s also strange that all of these signals are occurring in a year with an average to slightly cooler than average MDR (so kind of like 2018, actually).

Something is going to massively bust this year: either the really high pro met forecast numbers, or the model forecasts for a dry tropical Atlantic. It’s so bizarre how the Euro is forecasting both an above-average season and a dry MDR. There’s some factor that’s either confusing the models or will suddenly lead to unfavorable factors despite another -ENSO coming soon.

I don’t know what’s gonna happen quite frankly. Elsa being a hurricane doesn't really mean anything magical given it was mostly driven by trade winds. Struggled mightily afterwards.

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1415025686218117126

An average year included in Phil K’s analogs. For me personally something does not jive here especially with all that risen motion over Africa.

Something does not seem right at all. Record precipitation in Africa, another year with a strong WAM/ASW, and a very early MDR hurricane all point to an enhanced MDR…yet the climo models are showing a dry and suppressed MDR? Every other year with a hurricane around Elsa’s location was above-average to hyperactive, many of which had significant MDR activity. It would be unheard of for such a signal of enhanced activity to be suddenly reversed mere weeks later, especially when compared to the select group of seasons 2021 is now a part of. It’s also strange that all of these signals are occurring in a year with an average to slightly cooler than average MDR (so kind of like 2018, actually).

Something is going to massively bust this year: either the really high pro met forecast numbers, or the model forecasts for a dry tropical Atlantic. It’s so bizarre how the Euro is forecasting both an above-average season and a dry MDR. There’s some factor that’s either confusing the models or will suddenly lead to unfavorable factors despite another -ENSO coming soon.

The Atlantic Niño is the culprit.

[AlphaToOmega]

At least the people in hurricane-prone areas know what to blame for the activity.

"THAT DARN ATLANTIC EQUATORIAL MODE!!!!!!!"

[SFLcane]

Well if the models are right- I really don't think it's that complicated - the current SSTA distribution means systems moving through the region where Atlantic systems try to develop will struggle with stability.

[Category5Kaiju]

An average year included in Phil K’s analogs. For me personally something does not jive here especially with all that risen motion over Africa.

Something does not seem right at all. Record precipitation in Africa, another year with a strong WAM/ASW, and a very early MDR hurricane all point to an enhanced MDR…yet the climo models are showing a dry and suppressed MDR? Every other year with a hurricane around Elsa’s location was above-average to hyperactive, many of which had significant MDR activity. It would be unheard of for such a signal of enhanced activity to be suddenly reversed mere weeks later, especially when compared to the select group of seasons 2021 is now a part of. It’s also strange that all of these signals are occurring in a year with an average to slightly cooler than average MDR (so kind of like 2018, actually).

Something is going to massively bust this year: either the really high pro met forecast numbers, or the model forecasts for a dry tropical Atlantic. It’s so bizarre how the Euro is forecasting both an above-average season and a dry MDR. There’s some factor that’s either confusing the models or will suddenly lead to unfavorable factors despite another -ENSO coming soon.

I don’t know what’s gonna happen quite frankly. Elsa being a hurricane doesn't really mean anything magical given it was mostly driven by trade winds. Struggled mightily afterwards.

Idk either, although I will say that while yes Elsa struggled, the fact that it still became a hurricane in the MDR so early in the typically climatologically unfavorable month of July (and using the metric of "can a hurricane merely exist" rather than "how strong of a hurricane did it become") puts 2021 ahead of hyperactive years like 2017, 2010, 2004, 1999, 1998, or 1995. I could be wrong of course, but I am a part of the camp that believes that the idea that only 6 other hurricane seasons have had an MDR July hurricane and with all of them going on to become hyperactive years is an alarming observation that could mean something significant in the longer term when put into the context of what 2021 could have up its sleeves.

[cycloneye]

Well if the models are right- I really don't think it's that complicated - the current SSTA distribution means systems moving through the region where Atlantic systems try to develop will struggle with stability.

But they can find better conditions further west.

[tolakram]

I don't see or hear anything out of the ordinary. With very low skills the models will show a number of things. We'll see how things shape up by September IMO, and not really know much until then. Even if we have a hyperactive July or August it's no indication of what the rest of the season will being. I know, I've seen the comparisons, but I stand on my opinion that we simply do not have enough data. We'll see.

[aspen]

Well if the models are right- I really don't think it's that complicated - the current SSTA distribution means systems moving through the region where Atlantic systems try to develop will struggle with stability.

It seems like the SST profile is improving a bit, but we won’t know for certain how it’ll be in ASO until ASO actually starts. If the suppressive CCKW is helping keep the SST profile underwhelming compared to other hyperactive years, then the positive CCKW could help improve them.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1415050406057549826

[SFLcane]

Makes sense now @bennoll so rather take with caution.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1415050406057549826

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1415051518034722826
Using 2007 as a comparison year is not a good thing. Yeah, it was a little below-average, but Dean and Felix. That’s all that needs to be said.

[BYG Jacob]

Take the models forecasting a dry MDR with a healthy dose of salt. The WAM and ITCZ are way too convectively juiced this year for that to verify. Those models also usually predict a dry MDR and end up being wrong anyway. (looking at you especially Euro)

[BYG Jacob]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1415050406057549826

Andy fundamentally not grasping what a south-displaced ITCZ means.

[SFLcane]

Take the models forecasting a dry MDR with a healthy dose of salt. The WAM and ITCZ are way too convectively juiced this year for that to verify. Those models also usually predict a dry MDR and end up being wrong anyway. (looking at you especially Euro)

Yessir…

[SFLcane]

Holy moly Eric!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1415053953654419456

[Category5Kaiju]

So here's what I think: given the guidance suggesting the possibility of low latitude born systems being heavily favored this year as well as the Caribbean Sea being wetter than usual, I can't help but wonder if what we could see this year are the return of the Caribbean cruisers. Interestingly enough, this sort of patten that favored storms traversing the Caribbean Sea with some being quite powerful has not been around for nearly 14 years, but the fact that the Atlantic Nino is shifting the ITCZ and possible MDR much further south of what we are used to could signal that such low riding cruiser systems could be "forced" to occur this year. Now I don't know how Caribbean shear will be in the coming months, but with the 2007 and 2004 comparisons being talked about as well as the facts that we got Elsa to occur so early in the year and that very late season activity in 2020 featured 2 very strong Category 4 Western Caribbean storms, I wonder if these are some signs that the Caribbean Sea may be opening up to favor more activity, potentially major hurricanes at its worst, this year and that a pattern flip from what we have been generally used to in recent years is imminent.

[cycloneye]

I really dont know which model will be right and that is that I will watch how things evolve on real time. These different scenarios from them drive me crazy and puzzeled.

[SFLcane]

I really dont know which model will be right and that is that I will watch how things evolve on real time. These different scenarios from them drive me crazy and puzzeled.

That VP200 composite is hyperactive!