EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

The most recent MW passes have been missing left and right. This SSMIS F18 pass caught half the system:


This looks like it has a well defined mid level eye.

However I'm not too sure what to make of the low level appearance. Looks like the core is obscured by the cold convection.

[Kingarabian]

This is about to run into about 10 knots mid level shear which could put a dent in this.

Yeah here it is:


HWRF/HMON makes this a hurricane in about 6 hours from now. 12z Euro doesn't start to really develop this until about 72 hours from now.

[Yellow Evan]

Need a new microwave.

[Kingarabian]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/865075114977787954/f46dd6dd-e930-450f-8193-934cc49a8f7c.png

Need a new microwave.

Gotta wait until midnightish unfortunately.

[Kingarabian]

00z HMON making this a major hurricane in 24 hours:

[Kingarabian]

Finally a good microwave pass. But yeah this is definitely a hurricane.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2021 Time : 055031 UTC
Lat : 15:00:00 N Lon : 117:12:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 984.1mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.1

Center Temp : -65.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

[Subtrop]

EP, 06, 2021071506, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1171W, 65, 992, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 30, 70, 1012, 100, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FELICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 06, 2021071506, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1171W, 65, 992, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1012, 100, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FELICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
EP, 06, 2021071506, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1171W, 65, 992, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 10, 1012, 100, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FELICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,

[Kingarabian]

Eye trying to clear out:

[Astromanía]

Nice

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...FELICIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...
...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 117.6W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 117.6 West. Felicia is
now moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to
the west-southwest is expected by Friday with this motion expected
to continue over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Felicia has rapidly intensified into a category 1
hurricane over the past 24 hours and further intensification is
expected over the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Overnight, Felicia has maintained a small, but circular central
dense overcast near its estimated center. A fortuitous GMI microwave
pass at 0545 UTC depicted a well-defined mid-level eye on the 89 GHz
channel, with deep convection wrapped three-fourths around the south
and east sides of Felicia's center. Since that time, the storm's
infrared satellite structure has improved further, with a distinct
warm spot apparent near Felicia's center with colder than -70 C
cloud tops wrapping around this feature. Subjective Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt at 0600 UTC, but a more
recent objective ADT estimate was up to T4.4/75 kt. Given the
additional improvement seen on geostationary satellite imagery since
0600 UTC, the latest initial intensity was raised to 75 kt this
advisory, making Felicia a hurricane.

Felicia appears to be starting a leftward turn, with the latest
estimated motion at 280/10 kt. Over the next 24-36 hours, a weak
upper-level trough currently centered over Baja California is
forecast to cutoff and shift the mid-level ridging, currently north
of Felicia, to the northwest ahead of the cyclone. This ridge
reorientation is expected to result in a slow west-southwestward
motion of Felicia beginning in the next 24 hours. Afterwards, the
mid-level ridging becomes reestablished north of the cyclone,
allowing a resumption of a more westward motion after 60 hours. The
latest track guidance remains in good agreement, but has shifted a
bit more southward this cycle. The official NHC track forecast is
also a little south of the previous forecast, blending the latest
track forecasts from the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

Felicia has rapidly intensified over the last 24 hours from a
tropical depression to a category one hurricane. In the short term,
Felicia remains in an environment of low (5-10 kt) vertical wind
shear and warm (27-28 C) sea surface temperatures. Now that the
hurricane appears to have developed an inner core with convection
axis-symmetric around it, additional intensification is expected
with a new peak intensity of 95 kt forecasted in 24 to 36 hours. The
first part of the NHC intensity forecast is on the upper end of the
intensity guidance due to the higher initial intensity, and also
given the possibility rapid intensification continues, as suggested
by SHIPS-RII guidance, which gives Felicia a one-in-three chance of
a 25 kt intensity increase over the next 24 hours. Afterwards, while
vertical wind shear is expected to remain low, mid-level relative
humidity is expected to decrease, leaving the small tropical cyclone
susceptible to dry-air intrusions as sea surface temperatures also
gradually decrease. A combination of these environmental factors are
expected to lead to gradual weakening beginning after 36 hours
through the end of the forecast. The latter portion of the NHC
intensity forecast is in better agreement with the intensity
guidance and closely follows the HCCA consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 15.2N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.3N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.2N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 14.4N 125.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 14.4N 131.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

[Kingarabian]

Overnight, Felicia has maintained a small, but circular central
dense overcast near its estimated center. A fortuitous GMI microwave
pass at 0545 UTC depicted a well-defined mid-level eye on the 89 GHz
channel, with deep convection wrapped three-fourths around the south
and east sides of Felicia's center. Since that time, the storm's
infrared satellite structure has improved further, with a distinct
warm spot apparent near Felicia's center with colder than -70 C
cloud tops wrapping around this feature. Subjective Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt at 0600 UTC, but a more
recent objective ADT estimate was up to T4.4/75 kt. Given the
additional improvement seen on geostationary satellite imagery since
0600 UTC, the latest initial intensity was raised to 75 kt this
advisory, making Felicia a hurricane.

The NHC is feeling the pain too lol

[Chris90]

First western hemisphere major of the year? I've got my fingers crossed that she continues to put on a show for the next 36 hours before conditions start to deteriorate. The microwave image looks good and appears to be a core that is ready to say "Bye!" to the millibars as the pressure continues to drop.

[Yellow Evan]

T4.5. W needs to smooth out and/or eye needs to warm.

[Yellow Evan]

Mid level shear zone caused by displaced anticyclone is moving ahead of the storm for now.

[aspen]

Easily on its way to become a major now. What an incredible bust by all of the global models. Yeah, the GFS did start showing a tiny hurricane a few days before Felicia formed, but it will still be a bust if it becomes a major.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 151157
TCSENP

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 15/1130Z

C. 15.2N

D. 118.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI

H. REMARKS...AN LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET IS EQUAL
TO 4.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PT
EQUALS 4.5 AFTER A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC LOCATION AND BECAUSE A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT
WAS ADDED.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/0545Z 15.0N 117.2W GMI


...COVERDALE

Pattern adjustment is not a reason to use PT for FT.

[cycloneye]

EP, 06, 2021071512, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1182W, 80, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 10, 1012, 100, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FELICIA, D

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Earlier this morning, an eye began to appear in satellite imagery.
However, since that time the convection has eroded slightly over the
southwestern portion of the circulation, making that feature
somewhat obscured. This could be a sign that an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) is underway. Although the eye is not readily apparent
in satellite, Felicia has a well-defined inner core structure with
persistent and very cold cloud tops surrounding much of the center.
The Dvorak T-numbers continue to rise, and the latest blend of the
available values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT support
increasing the initial intensity to 80 kt for this advisory.

Felicia continues to make a gradual turn to the left, and the
initial motion is now 270/10 kt. The ridge currently to the north of
the hurricane is foreast to shift to its northwest over the next day
or so, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple
of days. By early next week, Felicia should once again become
positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a
westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest
NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is
near the tightly clustered track guidance.

Rapid intensification (RI) has continued, and Felicia's winds have
increased by 50 kt since early yesterday morning. Aside from a
possible pause in the cyclone's intensification in the near-term
due to the ERC, the environment of low shear and warm sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) that have been supporting the strengthening
should continue around the cyclone over the next 24 h. By late
Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may
begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to
move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to
gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the bulk of the
guidance through 24 h due to the RI factors currently in place.
Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach model HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 15.2N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[AlphaToOmega]

Am I crazy to suggest that Felicia could become a Category IV hurricane?

[Sciencerocks]

Going to become a major within the next 24 hours. Look at that classic 9 shape.