2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1415055283148279814

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of the
coast of southern Mexico late this week and move westward at 10 to
15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Copy and paste.

5 AM PDT.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of the
coast of southern Mexico late this week and move westward at 10 to
15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, located over the
eastern Pacific south and southeast of the coast of southern Mexico,
are associated with a tropical wave moving westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual
development over the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form this weekend well offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS brings the 10/70 west, but weakens it too slowly over cooler water.

[cycloneye]

Euro has it north and that is why is not strong.

[Kingarabian]

It's likely we'll see increased TCG chances through mid August because the MJO is getting better defined and will be in the WPAC in a the next 14 days.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico in association with a tropical wave moving
westward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system moves westward
or west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico in association with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico in association with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 97E is up

[AlphaToOmega]

It seems like the 2021 EPAC Season will be ridiculously front-loaded.

[Yellow Evan]

Would explain why the GFS isn’t showing anything.it’s pretending MJO will deepen over the WPAC and steal all the upward motion.

[Category5Kaiju]

I have a question: so I recently checked on Felicia and it looks like she's now a 130 mph Cat 4...with a 955 mbar pressure. Isn't this kind of high for a low end Cat 4 hurricane? I would think that the pressure would be at least in the high 940s? Or is it due to its very small size that this is possible?

[ElectricStorm]

I have a question: so I recently checked on Felicia and it looks like she's now a 130 mph Cat 4...with a 955 mbar pressure. Isn't this kind of high for a low end Cat 4 hurricane? I would think that the pressure would be at least in the high 940s? Or is it due to its very small size that this is possible?

There's been quite a few Cat 4s in the EPAC with 950s pressures. It's still pretty high for Cat 4s though

[Yellow Evan]

I have a question: so I recently checked on Felicia and it looks like she's now a 130 mph Cat 4...with a 955 mbar pressure. Isn't this kind of high for a low end Cat 4 hurricane? I would think that the pressure would be at least in the high 940s? Or is it due to its very small size that this is possible?

It’s high due to its small size.

[Kingarabian]

Through August, even though the EPS isn't showing much rising motion over the main EPAC region, it doesn't show much sinking motion either.


So we could see a pretty active August before the season starts to wind down in September.

EPS is showing a pretty good chance for another system in the long range.

[Yellow Evan]

Next window for TC activity is in about a weak even if models aren't showing anything at that timeframe.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS develops this around day 9-10 at 18z.

[Astromanía]

What I like about EPAC is that you can enjoy some beautiful fish majors even in unfavorable years, I don't know how this season will end in activity but it will be interesting regardless