EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

Eye is reappearing on IR

[Yellow Evan]

CDO really needs to smoothen out. Still specs of MG with an overall ragged structure.

[AveryTheComrade]

Eye seems to be rapidly clearing, mixing out the dry air again. Minimum eye temperature is already down to -7.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, look where it ends.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151437
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Earlier this morning, an eye began to appear in satellite imagery.
However, since that time the convection has eroded slightly over the
southwestern portion of the circulation, making that feature
somewhat obscured. This could be a sign that an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) is underway. Although the eye is not readily apparent
in satellite, Felicia has a well-defined inner core structure with
persistent and very cold cloud tops surrounding much of the center.
The Dvorak T-numbers continue to rise, and the latest blend of the
available values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT support
increasing the initial intensity to 80 kt for this advisory.

Felicia continues to make a gradual turn to the left, and the
initial motion is now 270/10 kt. The ridge currently to the north of
the hurricane is foreast to shift to its northwest over the next day
or so, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple
of days. By early next week, Felicia should once again become
positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a
westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest
NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is
near the tightly clustered track guidance.

Rapid intensification (RI) has continued, and Felicia's winds have
increased by 50 kt since early yesterday morning. Aside from a
possible pause in the cyclone's intensification in the near-term
due to the ERC, the environment of low shear and warm sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) that have been supporting the strengthening
should continue around the cyclone over the next 24 h. By late
Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may
begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to
move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to
gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the bulk of the
guidance through 24 h due to the RI factors currently in place.
Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach model HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 15.2N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&sec=full_disk&x=14442.34765625&y=7534.634765625&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Yellow Evan]

Needs to smooth out. Eye and CDO still ragged with no full B ring.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 151800
TCSENP

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 15/1730Z

C. 15.2N

D. 119.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG BUT EMBEDDED IN MG RESULTS IN A DT
OF 4.5. THE MET AND PT ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 4.5 BASED ON AN ONGOING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT TREND. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[Yellow Evan]

Eye still needs to clear.

[cycloneye]

Category 2

EP, 06, 2021071518, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1190W, 85, 979, HU

[cycloneye]

None of the models goes to cat 3.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2021 Time : 192032 UTC
Lat : 15:16:47 N Lon : 119:11:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 969.1mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -30.6C Cloud Region Temp : -62.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Eye has been warming better in the most recent frames:

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, look where it ends.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/Z5dhaI5.png[url]

The only way north to this point had to be through interaction with 97E. The 12z GFS keeps Felicia deep enough that it also just rounds the ridge (although its a weaker ridge this run) and end up tracking NW closer to Hawaii (rather than being caught in the low level flow), similar to many storms in the past.

Still a lot of shear on the GFS, but this 12z run had less (though still about 10kts more than the Euro).

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

The evolution of Felicia's satellite imagery since last night
suggested that an eyewall replacement cycle had occurred, and
recently has completed. For the past several hours, an eye has been
occasionally appearing while surrounded by cloud tops as cold as -80
degrees C. With this eye feature becoming somewhat clearer, the
corresponding Dvorak-T numbers have increased. Based on a blend
of these latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to
85 kt.

Felicia continues to move west, or 270/09kt. The ridge currently to
the north of the hurricane is forecast to shift the northwest of
Felicia by tonight, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward
for a couple of days. By early next week, the hurricane should once
again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would
result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period.
The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance.

The small inner-core structure of Felicia is well established, and
the cyclone should remain in an environment of low shear and over
warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 12-24 h. This
should allow for some additional strengthening. By late Friday,
Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to
disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over
slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually
weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC
intensity forecast remains slightly above the bulk of the guidance
through 24 h due to the aforementioned favorable conditions
currently in place for strengthening. Thereafter, the forecast is
close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.2N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2021 Time : 202032 UTC
Lat : 15:17:23 N Lon : 119:18:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 967.2mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -8.4C Cloud Region Temp : -62.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Kingarabian]

Probably very close to a major hurricane if not one already.


Could see a special advisory if it keeps it up.

[Kingarabian]

Reason why its been doing better than modeled is because its been running south of the forecast model's tracks.

HWRF:


Euro:


GFS:

[aspen]

Probably very close to a major hurricane if not one already.
https://i.imgur.com/NWPpmrO.png

Could see a special advisory if it keeps it up.

The eye is getting obscured by another convective burst near the core, but that seems to be a sign that it is continuing to intensify.