ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 99, 2021071506, , BEST, 0, 371N, 590W, 30, 1017, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, al752021 to al992021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure,
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape Race,
Newfoundland, has increased a little since yesterday. However,
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and little
additional development is expected while the low moves little over
the next day or so. On Friday, the low is expected to accelerate
northeastward and open up into a trough of low pressure to the
south of Atlantic Canada. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven

[Jr0d]

Had a quick flare up last night but those storms died off almost faster than they happened...it may have even made the LLC less defined.

....next.

Looks like we may not get another Atlantic Storm until August.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm kinda surprised they tagged this one as it shouldn't do much...

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity has increased slightly since yesterday in
association with a non-tropical area of low pressure, located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
However, environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development while the low moves little through tonight. On Friday,
the low is expected to accelerate northeastward and open up into a
trough of low pressure to the south of Atlantic Canada. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Latto

[AlphaToOmega]

Based on operational GFS and CMC, I think the best time for this to become a (sub)tropical cyclone is within 6 hours.

[Sciencerocks]

Very well defined LLC. Just needs convection...

[captainbarbossa19]

Very well defined LLC. Just needs convection...
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2508/ZLREEZ.gif

Watch. This will end up being Fred before it dissipates completely.

[AlphaToOmega]

I think development chances will be increased in the next TWO.

[AlphaToOmega]

Wait...when is diurnal maximum for this latitude?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity has become a little more concentrated over the past
couple of hours in association with a non-tropical area of low
pressure, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape
Race, Newfoundland. However, environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for tropical or subtropical development while
the low accelerates northeastward through tonight. By Friday, the
low is expected to open up into a trough of low pressure to the
south of Atlantic Canada.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

[AutoPenalti]

Very well defined LLC. Just needs convection...
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2508/ZLREEZ.gif

Looks elongated.

[MarioProtVI]

I think it should’ve been higher then 10/10 looking at it now. I’d give it like 30/30 or 40/40

[HurricaneEnzo]

If it can maintain that convective burst for a while I don't really see anything else holding back TD classification. Gonna come down to whether or not the NHC thinks it has maintained long enough.

I suspect it won't maintain though. I'm guessing this convection will poof shortly.

[AlphaToOmega]

I believe it has enough convection to be classified as a depression. Based on naked eye observations, it has low-level and mid-level circulation.

[AlphaToOmega]

[InfernoFlameCat]

Midlevel? I do not see that. Maybe soon but not now. Also convection is not sustained as of right now.

[tolakram]

LLC is racing away now, and the convection has stopped.

SLIDER https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=13592&y=3628&z=5&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[AlphaToOmega]

AL, 99, 2021071400, , BEST, 0, 380N, 568W, 30, 1017, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 99, 2021071406, , BEST, 0, 377N, 573W, 30, 1017, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 99, 2021071412, , BEST, 0, 372N, 576W, 35, 1016, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1020, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 99, 2021071418, , BEST, 0, 369N, 582W, 35, 1016, LO, 34, NEQ, 35, 0, 0, 35, 1020, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 99, 2021071500, , BEST, 0, 369N, 587W, 30, 1017, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 99, 2021071506, , BEST, 0, 371N, 589W, 30, 1017, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, al752021 to al992021,
AL, 99, 2021071512, , BEST, 0, 371N, 590W, 30, 1017, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
AL, 99, 2021071518, , BEST, 0, 375N, 586W, 25, 1018, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

[Sciencerocks]