EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

This seems to be peak? W ring isn’t sustaining itself anymore.

[Kingarabian]

Happy the NHC went with the highest estimated intensity here. They've done a very good job.

[Kingarabian]

This SSMIS pass finally shows an outter eyewall meaning an ERC is trying to start. But seeing its 3 hours old and not much change in its satellite presentation, it could be that it just finished.

[cheezyWXguy]

This SSMIS pass finally shows an outter eyewall meaning an ERC is trying to start. But seeing its 3 hours old and not much change in its satellite presentation, it could be that it just finished.
https://i.imgur.com/VbmXM1i.jpg

I doubt it finished, I think it’s just starting. Would explain the expansion of the cloud canopy and recent fluctuations in cdo temps

[Yellow Evan]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/865869730904932352/8de22b83-9e02-4f50-a436-da24b6fd2677.png

W ring almost complete. This hurricane just starts cooling cloud tops everytime it appears it’s about to weaken.

Do you have an idea why the subjective/raw ADT numbers have been running lower than SAB and TAFB? Is ADT having trouble resolving the CDO thickness because it's a small system?

Its small CDO thickness is keeping ADT down massively.

[Yellow Evan]

This SSMIS pass finally shows an outter eyewall meaning an ERC is trying to start. But seeing its 3 hours old and not much change in its satellite presentation, it could be that it just finished.
https://i.imgur.com/VbmXM1i.jpg

An ERC with this annular of a storm would make relatively little sense.

[Kingarabian]

This SSMIS pass finally shows an outter eyewall meaning an ERC is trying to start. But seeing its 3 hours old and not much change in its satellite presentation, it could be that it just finished.
https://i.imgur.com/VbmXM1i.jpg

An ERC with this storm of storm would make relatively little sense.

Yeah it shouldn't explicitly ERC. Could be there just for show. Seen this with Hector 2018 around its peak. But this is the first drastic change in what was a picture perfect MW presentation for nearly 36 hours straight .

[tolakram]

Visible available now.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1377&y=1068.5&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

Saved loop, closeup

[Kingarabian]

Still has all the juice to give us some fantastic visible imagery.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still has all the juice to give us some fantastic visible imagery.
https://i.imgur.com/uGeSD2V.gif

Hints of a possible EWRC beginning towards the end? Note the mote developing around the NE quad.

Truly stunning hurricane. One of the top in the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1416452271794126848

[Yellow Evan]

On the cusp of T6.5 again.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1416452271794126848?s=21

I see the HWRF is upset that every single one of its runs for Felicia ended up being too low this time.

[Sciencerocks]

Within my opinion this is probably 125-130 knots. This is a very impressive storm but without recon or radar velocity data the true strength will never be known. These eastern pacific can be truly impressive and put some cat5's in the Atlantic to shame in appearance. So it is just a little madding but understandable with such little data to support such intensity.

[SconnieCane]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1416452271794126848?s=21

I see the HWRF is upset that every single one of its runs for Felicia ended up being too low this time.

First cyclone to "break the HWRF" since Mangkhut (2018).

[Sciencerocks]

[InfernoFlameCat]

cloud tops are cooling again. however system is now moving northwest. cooler waters incoming.

[aspen]

I hope the Atlantic produces a storm very similar in structure to Felicia (one that is either a fish or doesn’t impact land until it’s far weaker) so recon can investigate it and give us a better idea as to what Felicia itself was like. How much has comparative analysis between storms been used in post-season intensity analysis of one storm?