EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Stormybajan]

Maybe they'll keep it at 125kts at this rate.
https://i.imgur.com/B2u4Ke8.gif

Hurricane Felicia is quickly shooting up my list of favourite Hurricanes Out to sea threatening no land masses, annular in structure for most of its life time , beautiful to watch and to look at and extremely resistant I'm not going to forget about this hurricane for a while

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

Satellite images indicate that Felicia remains a well-organized
hurricane with an annular structure and a clear eye. However, the
eye temperature has cooled a bit, along with some eyewall
cloud-top warming. Intensity estimates have fallen somewhat, so
the initial wind speed is reduced to 120 kt for this advisory.

Gradually cooling SSTs should cause a general weakening trend with
Felicia during the next day or so. The rate of weakening should
increase sometime Monday due to decreasing instability and a modest
rise in upper-level wind shear, which could assist with dry-air
entrainment near the inner core. Due to the system's small size,
Felicia could also weaken fairly quickly by Tuesday in these
marginal environmental conditions, although this type of scenario
is inherently low confidence. The new forecast remains on the high
side of the guidance but is reduced from the previous one. By the
end of the forecast period, stronger shear should be impacting the
system, and hopefully we will be able to say bye Felicia on
Thursday.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The hurricane
is forecast to turn again toward the west by late Sunday as a
mid-level ridge to the north builds slightly. Felicia should
then turn west-southwestward early in the work week due to the
orientation of an extensive deep-layer ridge centered over the
central Pacific. The spread in the track guidance is very low,
leading to a high confidence track forecast, and the NHC track
forecast is close to the various consensus aids and the last
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 15.2N 126.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 15.6N 127.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 16.1N 129.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 131.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.3N 133.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 16.1N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 15.6N 138.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 14.6N 144.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 13.9N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

[InfernoFlameCat]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180236
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

Satellite images indicate that Felicia remains a well-organized
hurricane with an annular structure and a clear eye. However, the
eye temperature has cooled a bit, along with some eyewall
cloud-top warming. Intensity estimates have fallen somewhat, so
the initial wind speed is reduced to 120 kt for this advisory.

Gradually cooling SSTs should cause a general weakening trend with
Felicia during the next day or so. The rate of weakening should
increase sometime Monday due to decreasing instability and a modest
rise in upper-level wind shear, which could assist with dry-air
entrainment near the inner core. Due to the system's small size,
Felicia could also weaken fairly quickly by Tuesday in these
marginal environmental conditions, although this type of scenario
is inherently low confidence. The new forecast remains on the high
side of the guidance but is reduced from the previous one. By the
end of the forecast period, stronger shear should be impacting the
system, and hopefully we will be able to say bye Felicia on
Thursday.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The hurricane
is forecast to turn again toward the west by late Sunday as a
mid-level ridge to the north builds slightly. Felicia should
then turn west-southwestward early in the work week due to the
orientation of an extensive deep-layer ridge centered over the
central Pacific. The spread in the track guidance is very low,
leading to a high confidence track forecast, and the NHC track
forecast is close to the various consensus aids and the last
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 15.2N 126.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 15.6N 127.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 16.1N 129.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 131.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.3N 133.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 16.1N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 15.6N 138.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 14.6N 144.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 13.9N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Chris90]

As a millennial, I love that Blake got that "Bye Felicia!" reference from Friday in the discussion. I also was quite tickled with the hashtag #EyeFelicia that I saw earlier.

[Yellow Evan]

Will measure after the NBA Finals game but may be approaching T6.5 again.

[Kingarabian]

As a millennial, I love that Blake got that "Bye Felicia!" reference from Friday in the discussion. I also was quite tickled with the hashtag #EyeFelicia that I saw earlier.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks just as good as it did earlier imo. If it keeps this up it may get back to 125kts again. What a storm.
Also, that big band on the western side is starting to fade...

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1416602742429265924

[Kingarabian]

This eyewall is pretty strong. More inline with a 130kt or higher system.

[Yellow Evan]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/866156959710052382/image0.png

Will measure after the NBA Finals game but may be approaching T6.5 again.

A bit short. Still T6.0 with B ring embedded in LG and a WMG eye.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JUL 2021 Time : 032031 UTC
Lat : 15:14:23 N Lon : 126:13:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.1mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 4.9 4.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +16.8C Cloud Region Temp : -49.7C

Scene Type : EYE

ADT logarithm breaking because this is so small.

[Astromanía]

This thing just dont want to weaken, always coming back, how much time do you want to stay at cat 4 in marginal waters Felicia?
Felicia: Yes

[Yellow Evan]

If this could somehow thicken T7.0/Cat 5 is in play.

[Kingarabian]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/866173739791941642/e9d167be-da50-4e75-bf32-f946b6b8952b.png

If this could somehow thicken T7.0/Cat 5 is in play.

IMO It's likely been in play so long the thickness requirement is disregarded because of the storms size.

[Astromanía]

The problem with Hector 2018 was the size as well, right? Sad we don't have recon

[Kingarabian]

The problem with Hector 2018 was the size as well, right? Sad we don't have recon

No Hector 2018 would've been a Cat.5 but recon wasn't there for the peak. It also had to leave despite not sampling the quadrants with the strongest winds.

[Kingarabian]

Looking like Hector 2018 on AVN again.

[Astromanía]

The problem with Hector 2018 was the size as well, right? Sad we don't have recon

No Hector 2018 would've been a Cat.5 but recon wasn't there for the peak. It also had to leave despite not sampling the quadrants with the strongest winds.

So that was just bad luck

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/storm_chaser_75/status/1416592659871850496

[Yellow Evan]

The problem with Hector 2018 was the size as well, right? Sad we don't have recon

No Hector 2018 would've been a Cat.5 but recon wasn't there for the peak. It also had to leave despite not sampling the quadrants with the strongest winds.

So that was just bad luck

Yes though keep in mind SFMRs from 2014-20 were running a bit hot compared to pre-2014 for high end hurricanes. That and the NE quadrant not being sampled probably cancel each other out in that case, however.