EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1416621280640442368

[Yellow Evan]

W ring thickening….. Making a mini-run at Category 5.

[Astromanía]

Maybe they will go with 130 kts if this keep up or even 135kt but I doubt they will give this a cat 5 the next advisory, Idk Felicia by far surpassed my expectations

[Yellow Evan]

Need to determine whether this is a T7.0 or T6.5.

[Kingarabian]

Dont worry SAB will come in with a 5.0

[ElectricStorm]

Definitely 130kts+ at this point. NHC might need a special update if this holds...

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.postimg.cc/3xyz3WK6/goes17-06-E-dvorak-202107180535.png

Need to determine whether this is a T7.0 or T6.5.

There's a B spot on the northeast. Not worthy of a T7.0 by my determination but I did not expect to ever have to grab out my ruler to determine whether an EPAC storm would be T7.0 this season.

[Kingarabian]

The white ring is expanding:

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 180549
TCSENP

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 18/0530Z

C. 15.3N

D. 126.5W

E. TWO/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS
A DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

...

[Stormybajan]

https://i.postimg.cc/3xyz3WK6/goes17-06-E-dvorak-202107180535.png

Need to determine whether this is a T7.0 or T6.5.

This Hurricane continues to out-do itself man, impressive is an understatement. This is at the least 130 knots right now comfortably

[Yellow Evan]

Worth noting that this color scheme is slightly different from cyclonicwx and may explain the difference but let me analyze further.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1416621280640442368?s=21

In regards to this just a quick look, SAR also was about 30mph off in a couple of cases with ELSA.

[Yellow Evan]

Worth noting that this color scheme is slightly different from cyclonicwx and may explain the difference but let me analyze further.

If using the 0530z from RAMMB which uses a -64 to -70 color scheme, this is a T6.0

If using the 0535z fram TT/cyclonicwx which uses a -63 to -69 color scheme, this a T6.5.



However, at 0615z we have our first T7.0 frame.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 06, 2021071806, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1266W, 120, 949, HU

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1416621280640442368?s=21

In regards to this just a quick look, SAR also was about 30mph off in a couple of cases with ELSA.

It actually underestimates a bunch of systems(looking at 2018 EPAC systems) I would throw out this technique.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/m ... index.html

[Yellow Evan]

Incredibly dry eye.

[Kingarabian]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/866210541391708180/06E_NRL_1.png

Incredibly dry eye.

Cat.5 Celia 2010 vibes:

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1416639441209286656

[Shell Mound]

This looks more impressive than any Atlantic hurricane since Wilma (2005), and that says a lot about the +AMO (or lack thereof). Cloud tops are colder and the eye warmer than in, among others, Matthew (2016), Irma/Jose (2017), Michael (2018), and Dorian (2019), especially when the compact circulation and wind radii are taken into account. Its appearance notwithstanding, Eta was not very impressive, based on the existence of shear, whereas Felicia is not sheared. I shall reiterate: Felicia was rather clearly 145–150 kt yesterday and is almost certainly matching those MSW currently. This system is a solid Cat-5 and the artificially low satellite-based estimates should be discarded.

[Yellow Evan]

Eta and Iota, while held down by lag, absolutely looked better than Felicia. And even then, the tropopause in the EPAC is slightly colder than the Atlantic so it’s not an apples to apples comparison.