EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

Felicia’s eye is nowhere near as clear and crisp as it was yesterday, and convection has significantly warmed with barely any black on TT IR imagery. She’s clearly on her downward trend now.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/derrickherndon2/status/1416801873152069632

[Kingarabian]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/866365167419260948/image0.png

Despite the degraded satellite appearance the core remains very healthy.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 181811
TCSENP

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 18/1730Z

C. 15.9N

D. 128.4W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN MG RESULTS IN A
DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/1503Z 15.7N 128.2W SSMIS


...KONON

[cycloneye]

EP, 06, 2021071818, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1285W, 110, 959, HU

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Yeah here's the real test. 25C waters.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

The satellite presentation of Felicia has degraded since the last
advisory. The eye is more cloud filled, and the eyewall cloud-top
temperatures have warmed. A consensus of the T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS ADT gives an initial wind speed of 105 kt,
which is also close to a wind estimate derived from experimental
NESDIS Synthetic Aperture Radar data a few hours ago.

It does seem like this is the beginning of long-heralded steady
weakening with less conducive environmental conditions ahead, such
as cooler water, higher upper-level shear, along with the loss of
the stable annular structure (as suggested by recent microwave
data). Thus, the new intensity forecast is considerably lower than
the previous one, closest to the intensity consensus IVCN and the
NOAA corrected-consensus HCCA. Felicia should be weakening quickly
by the time it enters the Central Pacific due to strong shear, and
the new forecast decays the cyclone to a remnant low by day 4.

Felicia continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The
guidance is fairly locked into a westward turn by Monday, then a
west-southwest motion due to the orientation of the subtropical
ridge for the rest of the forecast period. While the various aids
have changed somewhat, the latest model consensus is quite close to
the previous NHC track forecast, so the new forecast is almost the
same as the last one, except slightly farther north in the short
term.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 16.0N 129.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 16.3N 130.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 16.3N 134.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 16.0N 137.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 15.6N 140.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 15.0N 142.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 14.2N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z 13.5N 154.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

Wind shear has shifted from east to west due to a displaced. Already weakening and still has yet to be blasted by a TUTT.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Dying of old age unlike most storms. just slowly degrading from the prime.

[AnnularCane]

Dying of old age unlike most storms. just slowly degrading from the prime.

But she's only 4 days old.

[Yellow Evan]

This is legit starting to fill in. Probably won't be a hurricane in 24 hours and will lose deep convection sometime on Tuesday evening as shear gets even stronger.

[cycloneye]

06E FELICIA 210719 0000 16.2N 129.6W EPAC 95 971

[aspen]

Welp, nice knowing you Felicia. Now to watch your slow demise.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

Felicia continues to decline over water temperatures near or just
below 26C. The eye is gradually becoming more difficult to locate in
satellite imagery, and the CDO, while already small to begin with,
has shrunk in size over the past several hours. A blend of the
latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB suggest that the
hurricane has weakened to 90 kt. However, given that environment is
not too hostile at the moment, is it reasonable to believe that the
vortex of this mature tropical cyclone will take time to spin down
despite the degradation in satellite images. Therefore, the initial
intensity is being lowered to a perhaps generous 95 kt for this
advisory.

The cooler waters alone should continue to take a toll on Felicia
over the next couple of days by gradually eroding the deep
convection. After 48 h, increasing northwesterly shear should help
to inject dry and stable air into what remains of the core of the
cyclone. By 96 h, if not sooner, Felicia is expected to have lost
all of its deep convection and decay into a remnant low. The latest
NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one
through the first few days of the forecast period due to the rapidly
decreasing wind speeds, and is near the ICON intensity consensus
model. Thereafter, the NHC intensity forecast is little changed from
the previous one.

Felicia continues its 10-kt west-northwestward trek to the south of
a subtropical ridge. There is no change to the track forecast
reasoning. Model guidance is in good agreement on the cyclone
turning westward by Monday then perhaps west-southwestward later in
the forecast period as the ridge expands and becomes oriented NE-SW.
The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and
lies in the middle of the consensus guidance. Based on this track,
Felicia should cross over into the central Pacific basin Tuesday
night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 16.3N 130.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 15.8N 138.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 15.3N 141.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 14.9N 144.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 14.1N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 13.3N 155.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

Felicia continues to rapidly weaken tonight. The eye is no longer
visible in satellite imagery, and the low-level center is embedded
underneath a small central dense overcast. Recent SSMIS and GMI
microwave imagery reveal the hurricane no longer has a well-defined
eyewall, with a lack of deep convection noted in the southern
portion of the compact circulation. A blend of the objective
UW-CIMSS ADT and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt with this advisory.

Steady to rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next
couple of days as Felicia moves over decreasing SSTs and into an
environment with increasing vertical wind shear. The combination of
this shear and entrainment of drier mid-level air into the inner
core of Felicia should disrupt the small cyclone's ability to
maintain its convective organization. The official NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows steady weakening
that generally follows the IVCN consensus aid. GFS and ECMWF
simulated satellite imagery indicate that Felicia could lose all
deep, organized convection as early as Wednesday, when the
northwesterly shear strengthens to 30-40 kt over the cyclone.

Recent scatterometer and microwave data indicate Felicia has begun
turning more westward, and its initial motion is estimated to be
280/10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast
during the next several days as the cyclone moves around a
subtropical ridge that extends across the central Pacific. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered and the official NHC track
forecast is largely unchanged, with only a slight southward
adjustment that follows the latest multi-model consensus. Based on
this forecast, Felicia is expected to cross over into the central
Pacific basin on Tuesday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 16.4N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 14.9N 143.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 14.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 14.0N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z 13.5N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

[Sciencerocks]