WPAC: CEMPAKA - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

JMA should upgrade this to TS

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

CMA now referring to it as "2107", indicating JMA already upgraded it to a TS at 00Z.

ZCZC
WSCI40 BABJ 190000
TO BCSY BCHK BCSH BCCD BCGZ
BETY BEXA BETJ BESZ BEJN BEZZ BEBJ
2053 0669 1417 0143 2456 (20.8) 9887 9976
(113.2) 9878 4104 3583 1601 3049 2467 2456
9919 9800 9899 7030 1193 4882 3634 4574
(2107) 5714 3583 1601 3049 2467 9975
BABJ/3049 9707 9919 9800 =
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ21 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 21.0N 113.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT

10W TEN 210719 0000 20.9N 113.1E WPAC 45 992

[doomhaMwx]

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 190000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS CEMPAKA 2107 (2107) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC
00HR 20.8N 113.2E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 120KM NORTHEAST
80KM SOUTHEAST
120KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 5KM/H
P+06HR 20.9N 113.1E 998HPA 18M/S
P+12HR 21.1N 113.0E 990HPA 23M/S
P+18HR 21.2N 113.0E 990HPA 23M/S
P+24HR 21.4N 113.0E 985HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 21.7N 112.7E 985HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 21.9N 112.3E 995HPA 20M/S
P+60HR 21.9N 111.4E 998HPA 18M/S
P+72HR 21.7N 110.4E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

Radar structure more representative of a strong TS.

[Sciencerocks]

[Ed_2001]

Incredible how fast it put itself together being so close to shore, wouldn’t be surprised if Cempaka’s already a typhoon.

[doomhaMwx]

CMA and JTWC now at 50kts, the latter also now explicitly forecasting a typhoon before it moves into western Guangdong Province tomorrow.

[Hayabusa]

Some members have it going to a strong typhoon but yea we'll see

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1417128589883973639

[Sciencerocks]

[doomhaMwx]

CMA went ahead and finally upgraded Cempaka to a typhoon (65kt, 975mb) at 15Z.

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 191500 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY CEMPAKA 2107 (2107) INITIAL TIME 191500 UTC
00HR 21.1N 112.6E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
80KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 30KM NORTHEAST
30KM SOUTHEAST
30KM SOUTHWEST
30KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 5KM/H
P+06HR 21.3N 112.5E 970HPA 35M/S
P+12HR 21.5N 112.4E 970HPA 35M/S
P+18HR 21.6N 112.1E 970HPA 35M/S
P+24HR 21.8N 111.7E 982HPA 28M/S
P+36HR 21.9N 111.4E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 21.9N 110.8E 998HPA 18M/S
P+60HR 21.6N 110.5E 1000HPA 15M/S
P+72HR 21.1N 110.1E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RobertSpetaWX/status/1417146279453462528

[Hayabusa]

Thought they were going to upgrade at 15Z or at the very least STS, maybe 18Z?

WTPQ21 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 21.2N 112.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT

[aspen]

I didn’t expect it to blow up this fast, but it looks like this is another win for the HWRF. Watch the JTWC/JMA go with a 60 kt STS.

[Yellow Evan]

Getting a DT of T5.0. This is probably a high end Category 1 hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ21 KNES 200037
TCSWNP

A. 10W (CEMPAKA)

B. 19/2330Z

C. 21.4N

D. 112.2E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SYSTEM HAS 8/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.5. THE 24 HR
DEVELOPMENT TREND IS DR RESULTING IN A MET AND PT OF 4.5. FT IS BASED
ON MET DUE TO THE CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

Why aren’t they using an eye pattern???

[mrbagyo]

How come this still an STS? come on JMA!

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN11 PGTW 200037

A. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA)

B. 20/0000Z

C. 21.30N

D. 112.35E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A
DT OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES

This is somehow worse than the SAB fix.