2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Blown Away]

All in all about 3 weeks before the switch flips.

Yes, you can feel it in the SFL air, it almost feels like late August/early September already, hint of La Nina conditions out there. It wouldn't surprise me if mid August things start popping.

[NotSparta]

EPS weeklies control with a classic late August active look. Just a matter of time folks!

https://i.postimg.cc/9FpcJNym/71-C02382-6531-4163-9-C89-C344-ADFACB81.jpg

My fall classes start the first day of that period, wouldn't be surprised if that's when the tropics really wake up

[SFLcane]

All in all about 3 weeks before the switch flips.

Yes, you can feel it in the SFL air, it almost feels like late August/early September already, hint of La Nina conditions out there. It wouldn't surprise me if mid August things start popping.

I expect the waves to start getting perky around August 10th or so. Maybe the pulse will speed up a little bit we'll see. We haven't really had an MDR storm before August 25th or so that lasted in quite a long time.

[aspen]

All in all about 3 weeks before the switch flips.

Yes, you can feel it in the SFL air, it almost feels like late August/early September already, hint of La Nina conditions out there. It wouldn't surprise me if mid August things start popping.

I expect the waves to start getting perky around August 10th or so. Maybe the pulse will speed up a little bit we'll see. We haven't really had an MDR storm before August 25th or so that lasted in quite a long time.

With the suppressive Kelvin Wave moving out within the next 10-14 days and the Euro showing exceptionally favorable VP anomalies for August 3rd-9th, I won’t be surprised if the Atlantic starts to come alive as early as the first week of August. Maybe another AEW system forms, or maybe there’s a strong wave that develops into something significant later. Plus, SSTs are currently favorable for development as East as around 40W as long as the ITCZ remains at a low latitude, and they could be favorable for genesis as north as 15N in the MDR (east of 60W) by early August. In my opinion, the stage seems set for at least one system forming from a tropical wave between when the suppressive CCKW leaves the basin and mid-August.

[SFLcane]

Yes, you can feel it in the SFL air, it almost feels like late August/early September already, hint of La Nina conditions out there. It wouldn't surprise me if mid August things start popping.

I expect the waves to start getting perky around August 10th or so. Maybe the pulse will speed up a little bit we'll see. We haven't really had an MDR storm before August 25th or so that lasted in quite a long time.

With the suppressive Kelvin Wave moving out within the next 10-14 days and the Euro showing exceptionally favorable VP anomalies for August 3rd-9th, I won’t be surprised if the Atlantic starts to come alive as early as the first week of August. Maybe another AEW system forms, or maybe there’s a strong wave that develops into something significant later. Plus, SSTs are currently favorable for development as East as around 40W as long as the ITCZ remains at a low latitude, and they could be favorable for genesis as north as 15N in the MDR (east of 60W) by early August. In my opinion, the stage seems set for at least one system forming from a tropical wave between when the suppressive CCKW leaves the basin and mid-August.

Keep in mind that EPAC cell will impart some shear til it weakens. The Africa VP200 looks favorable so Waves might get going that first week of August.

[cycloneye]

He says maybe?

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1417472005599805447

[AutoPenalti]

He says maybe?

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1417472005599805447

Climo most likely.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1417148539390603271

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1417511113734959104

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1417511113734959104

Yep! Enjoy the quiet times now. Sleeping giant waking up soon

[toad strangler]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1417511113734959104

This is what I have been most worried about, A ripe Atlantic in August with perhaps ugly 500mb steering to produce possibly a track or two we haven't seen a quite awhile in the SW portion of the basin.

[AlphaToOmega]

I feel like this August could rival the August of 2004. That is a very favorable VP anomaly pattern.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yikes, while July may be extremely quiet, if that pattern from Ben Noll does verify, I could plausibly see us getting a very busy August and perhaps at least 5 NSs form during the month. Definitely a not so great sign for what's to come.

[Category5Kaiju]

I feel like this August could rival the August of 2004. That is a very favorable VP anomaly pattern.

We had 7 NSs form that year in August. If this year does rival that with such a predicted favorable VP, we could theoretically reach the L or M storm by the month's end. Oof.

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1417511113734959104

This is what I have been most worried about, A ripe Atlantic in August with perhaps ugly 500mb steering to produce possibly a track or two we haven't seen a quite awhile in the SW portion of the basin.

Definitely! I could see a few tc’s tracking similar to Irma with the z500 being predicted by the models. Obviously lots of factors come into play

[Category5Kaiju]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1417511113734959104

This is what I have been most worried about, A ripe Atlantic in August with perhaps ugly 500mb steering to produce possibly a track or two we haven't seen a quite awhile in the SW portion of the basin.

Definitely! I could see a few tc’s tracking similar to Irma with the z500 being predicted by the models. Obviously lots of factors come into play

Hopefully it does not happen of course, but I do think that with the predicted steering, low shear, etc., at some point during this season, I do personally think that there is a decent chance that there will be a major hurricane in the Strait of Florida like Irma, Donna, or the 1935 hurricane.

[SFLcane]

But……

[AlphaToOmega]

But……

https://i.postimg.cc/wxXZg02x/7-CD92-C38-F93-F-4935-A954-BC6430-D6-B6-DA.png

I am pretty sure instability was below-average for a while, even in 2020.

[aspen]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1417511113734959104

How does this compare to last August? I remember there was also talk about it being quite active, but then it behaved like a normal August with things only kicking off in the last week or two with Laura and Marco.

[cycloneye]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1417511113734959104

How does this compare to last August? I remember there was also talk about it being quite active, but then it behaved like a normal August with things only kicking off in the last week or two with Laura and Marco.

Unless someone posts archives about that, I may have to search Mr Nolls tweets of 2020.