Thought I’d share this from
Crown weather. Posted on Tuesday 7/20/2021: No tropical development is expected across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Beyond this, we will likely see a pattern change towards a marked increase for tropical development as we head into early and mid August.
An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin by the very end of this month and the beginning of August. Once this occurs, the conditions across the Atlantic will become favorable for development beginning during the first part of August. These favorable conditions for development are then expected to last through all of August and maybe as long as the very start of September.
This means that August could be a very active month for hurricane development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
If that wasn't bad enough news, the latest ensemble guidance are forecasting a very troubling upper air pattern for the peak of the hurricane season – in fact, it’s downright ugly!! These guidance members are showing a blocking high pressure system to set up over southeastern Canada and a setup like this is usually associated with much more frequent hurricane landfalls on the US Coastline and in the Caribbean.
It’s probably best to use the quiet that we will have for the next ten days or so to make sure you are ready when the activity picks up in earnest.
One step you could take is to subscribe to our Crown Weather Plus subscription plan, so that you are well informed, well in advance of any tropical systems. To learn more of how to subscribe, just go to
https://crownweather.com/index.php/cws- ... scription/ .
I cannot emphasize enough of how very busy it will likely get during August into early September in terms of tropical storm and hurricane activity. The weather pattern that looks to set up is such that very few storms will curve out into the open Atlantic, but instead head towards land. It still looks downright ugly and dangerous in terms of hurricane landfalls this season.
