2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Both 0z GFS and ECMWF start to develop something around day 9. Wouldn't surprise me if sooner.

[Deshaunrob17]

In an active Epac year, Guillermo would have gone on to be the next major.

[cycloneye]

Looks like if 12z GFS is right we will have another Felicia type. Begins on July 26. On August 3 is still strong.

[Kingarabian]

Euro and CMC showing two systems as well:

[Yellow Evan]

12z CMC has two systems by day 10. ECMWF not biting yet but I think it will soon.

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/GmqyqkwH/gem-mslpa-epac-41.png[url]

12z CMC has two systems by day 10. ECMWF not biting yet but I think it will soon.

Operational Euro is doing what it does to pretty much every new system which is basically to show nothing until it gets closer to forming. Lots of support for it on the EPS which is a better indicator IMO. Will be interesting to see if these systems can do what Felicia did and remain at a low latitude. Despite waters near Mexico being the warmest in the basin, storms have generally struggled in this area.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/drkimwood/status/1416861524325543936

[Astromanía]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/GmqyqkwH/gem-mslpa-epac-41.png[url]

12z CMC has two systems by day 10. ECMWF not biting yet but I think it will soon.

Operational Euro is doing what it does to pretty much every new system which is basically to show nothing until it gets closer to forming. Lots of support for it on the EPS which is a better indicator IMO. Will be interesting to see if these systems can do what Felicia did and remain at a low latitude. Despite waters near Mexico being the warmest in the basin, storms have generally struggled in this area.

Due to dry air, question is if it's still there

[Yellow Evan]

June PDO out:

2021-05 -1.0403
2021-06 -0.9912

Baby steps.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has it at low latitude.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS has a low latitude straight runner starting at day 8.

[Yellow Evan]

Idk why the globals aren’t that active with this -VP setup.

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/867137605547327488/eps_chi200_anomaly_hov_equatorial_2021071900_MEAN.png

Idk why the globals aren’t that active with this -VP setup.

Looks like the EPac might be competing with the Atlantic during the first half of August before sinking air puts activity to a grinding halt, so if the EPac pumps out multiple storms or one close major during that time frame as the Atlantic wakes up, it could limit Caribbean activity by imparting shear on whatever’s there. Being a cool ENSO year, though, means the base state isn’t that favorable and maybe that’s why the global models aren’t that enthusiastic despite a decent VP setup.

The possible TC south of Mexico that the GFS has been showing might be worth a lemon in a few days if the GFS doesn’t drop it.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/867137605547327488/eps_chi200_anomaly_hov_equatorial_2021071900_MEAN.png

Idk why the globals aren’t that active with this -VP setup.

Looks like the EPac might be competing with the Atlantic during the first half of August before sinking air puts activity to a grinding halt, so if the EPac pumps out multiple storms or one close major during that time frame as the Atlantic wakes up, it could limit Caribbean activity by imparting shear on whatever’s there. Being a cool ENSO year, though, means the base state isn’t that favorable and maybe that’s why the global models aren’t that enthusiastic despite a decent VP setup.

The possible TC south of Mexico that the GFS has been showing might be worth a lemon in a few days if the GFS doesn’t drop it.

I won't be surprised if there are only a couple more systems in the EPAC before things really slow down. This map looks rather unfavorable for development past August 1.

[Yellow Evan]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/867137605547327488/eps_chi200_anomaly_hov_equatorial_2021071900_MEAN.png

Idk why the globals aren’t that active with this -VP setup.

Looks like the EPac might be competing with the Atlantic during the first half of August before sinking air puts activity to a grinding halt, so if the EPac pumps out multiple storms or one close major during that time frame as the Atlantic wakes up, it could limit Caribbean activity by imparting shear on whatever’s there. Being a cool ENSO year, though, means the base state isn’t that favorable and maybe that’s why the global models aren’t that enthusiastic despite a decent VP setup.

The possible TC south of Mexico that the GFS has been showing might be worth a lemon in a few days if the GFS doesn’t drop it.

I won't be surprised if there are only a couple more systems in the EPAC before things really slow down. This map looks rather unfavorable for development past August 1.

More like August 15, especially as the EPS has been trending towards a more favorable setup later into the month. Generally the most active seasons have a -VP (without filtering for CCKW/MJO) at the eastern portion of the basin where genesis starts, so some +VP anomalies near 120W won't matter much.

[Category5Kaiju]

I guess it is officially time to say it. Bye Felicia.

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like the EPac might be competing with the Atlantic during the first half of August before sinking air puts activity to a grinding halt, so if the EPac pumps out multiple storms or one close major during that time frame as the Atlantic wakes up, it could limit Caribbean activity by imparting shear on whatever’s there. Being a cool ENSO year, though, means the base state isn’t that favorable and maybe that’s why the global models aren’t that enthusiastic despite a decent VP setup.

The possible TC south of Mexico that the GFS has been showing might be worth a lemon in a few days if the GFS doesn’t drop it.

I won't be surprised if there are only a couple more systems in the EPAC before things really slow down. This map looks rather unfavorable for development past August 1.

More like August 15, especially as the EPS has been trending towards a more favorable setup later into the month. Generally the most active seasons have a -VP (without filtering for CCKW/MJO) at the eastern portion of the basin where genesis starts, so some +VP anomalies near 120W won't matter much.

I see that now. I was concentrating too much towards the west on the map around August 1. I am still getting used to reading these maps. Lol.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS has two systems by day 5.

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC has two systems.

GFS and Euro only show one with real development.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF has nothing actually. EPS has 2 systems with distinct hints.