Surface Trough Offshore the SE U.S Coast (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad, non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop
off the coast of the southeastern United States by late Friday or
early Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for some gradual development over the weekend
while the system meanders offshore the coasts of South
Carolina, Georgia, and northeastern Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[xironman]

Saw the Euro was suggesting something. I we are going to get anything over the short term it would be something like this.

[aspen]

SSTs in that region are good enough and it’s rather close to the Gulf Stream, so it could bear watching if it forms and tries to become stronger than expected.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure associated with a decaying frontal
boundary is forecast to move offshore of the southeastern United
States coastline by late this week. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual development
over the weekend into early next week while the system meanders
offshore of the coasts of South Carolina, Georgia, and northeastern
Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

[InfernoFlameCat]

I feel like the Atlantic woke up at 4 am in the morning, stood up(Ana-Elsa) saw it was 4 in the morning and fell asleep again. Now she is tossing and turning as activity possibly hints at returning.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure associated with a decaying frontal
boundary over Mississippi and Alabama is forecast to move offshore
of the southeastern United States coastline by the end of this week.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
some gradual development over the weekend into early next week while
the system meanders offshore of the coasts of South Carolina,
Georgia, and northeastern Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven

[wxman57]

Very slim chance. I'd say closer to 1% than 20%. Beven didn't want to immediately lower chances after Stewart said 20%.

[AlphaToOmega]

A low has officially been marked by the NHC. This will be an invest sooner or later.

[AlphaToOmega]

Very slim chance. I'd say closer to 1% than 20%. Beven didn't want to immediately lower chances after Stewart said 20%.

Extratropical lows can become tropical cyclones without model support. This will also be in the Gulf Stream, which at this time of year is warm enough to form and support a tropical storm.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Very slim chance. I'd say closer to 1% than 20%. Beven didn't want to immediately lower chances after Stewart said 20%.

I think it has a chance at around day 5. Before hand no development into a Tc is very likely the case. I go with 10%. (Basically a 1% in my book)

[Jr0d]

It seems like the ICON takes this east over Florida, then develops it in the eastern GoM and makes landfall in the panhandle as a TD or weak storm. Obviously way too soon to make an accurate guess, especially since a low has yet to form.

Edit to add, the EURO is also hinting at this.

[captainbarbossa19]

Watch this system somehow manage to become Fred before August 1st.

[galaxy401]

These type of storms always sneak through and become short-lived storms. With the warm Gulf stream, I would not discount this storm at all. At least not until it's guarantee nothing will come of it.

[Category5Kaiju]

Watch this system somehow manage to become Fred before August 1st.

Euro and GFS also recently hint at some subtropical action near the very end of this month (much like Chantal 2019, Dolly 2020, and Bill 2021 I suppose). Of course it's no guarantee, but if recent years serve as any possibility, if this SE Atlantic storm were to actually become Fred, we could have at least 2 or so NSs (albeit weak) before this month ends. I guess July wouldn't be that much of a sleeper per se..

[AlphaToOmega]

In before Tropical Storm Fred develops in Alabama

[Category5Kaiju]

This AOI with it being marked with an X over the US reminds me of Blecch Barry back in 2019

[Jr0d]

Looks the ICON changed a bit, it forms a weak elongated low that moves NE off the east coast, with some energy moving west across Florida and still hints at a broad area of low pressure in the east GoM early next week.

The EURO hints of something in the eastern GoM also.

Still days away from even a blob or swirl to track. Normally something like this would go unnoticed by me, but it's been too quiet after Elsa.

[Nimbus]

I didn't look at the model runs but it sounds as if the action in the gulf would be at the tail end of the front rather than east of Florida. There is a lot of shear over Georgia lifting convection from some surface low pressure.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure associated with a dissipated frontal
system over Alabama and Georgia is forecast to move offshore of the
southeastern United States coastline on Friday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual
development over the weekend and into early next week while the
system meanders offshore the coasts of South Carolina, Georgia,
and northeastern Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[OuterBanker]

Sure enough, 18z Euro has a spin up off the Ga/SC coast Sun (18z only goes out 90 hrs).